Two games are in the books between the Heat and Pistons and we’re exactly where we were when the best-of-seven series started – knotted up. The battle has shifted to a best-of-five series, but now Miami owns homecourt advantage.

Miami captured Game 1 with a 91-86 victory on Tuesday before Detroit evened up the series with a 92-88 triumph in Game 2. The Heat cashed tickets on the money-line in the opener and followed that performance with a cover in the second match as six-point road ‘dogs.
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Pistons’ backers can’t be happy about the backdoor cover in Game 2, especially since head coach Flip Saunders’ team led by as many as 18 points midway through the third and held a solid 12-point lead (83-71) with less than two minutes on the clock. Still, the Heat rallied with an improbable 17-9 run in the final stanza for the classic cover.

Miami is listed as a three-point home favorite, with the total sitting at 182 ½. Despite two straight covers and earning homecourt for the rest of the series, some might expect the opening number to be a tad higher for Game 3.

Currently, it appears that public is expecting the Heat to take a 2-1 leads. If you follow the Betting Trends from Sportsbook.com, you’ll see that gamblers like Miami minus the points and on the money line, with the consensus also leaning towards the ‘over’.

Sticking with total talks – this number has dropped from 189 in Game 1 down to 182 in Game 3. That’s a seven-point swing since the opener and don’t be surprised to see the ‘over/under’ dip even lower.


Take a peak at last year’s Conference Finals between the two teams:


2004-05 Eastern Conference Finals
Game 1 Detroit (+3.5) 90 at Miami 81 Total: 179.5, UNDER
Game 2 Miami (-4.5) 92 vs. Detroit 86 Total: 178, PUSH
Game 3 Miami (+5) 113 at Detroit 104 Total: 177.5, OVER
Game 4 Detroit (-5) 106 vs. Miami 96 Total: 179.5, OVER
Game 5 Miami (-4) 88 vs. Detroit 76 Total: 183.5, UNDER
Game 6 Detroit (-7) 91 vs. Miami 66 Total: 179, UNDER
Game 7 Detroit (+2) 88 at Miami 82 Total: 177, UNDER



Pat Riley’s team was 36-11 straight up at home, but only 19-26 against the spread. This includes a 4-1 SU and 1-3-1 ATS mark.

Only one other team (San Antonio) in the NBA posted a better road record in the regular season than Detroit. The team was 27-14 SU and 17-24 ATS. However, the Pistons are just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in the playoffs. Detroit was 1-1 both SU and ATS in its two trips to American Airlines Arena this year.

Tip off for this contest is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. EST, with ESPN providing national coverage.

The two teams will reside in South Beach until Game 4, which is slated for this Monday on Memorial Day.