Originally Posted by
Love The Action
I look at this game 4 being the only one of the remaining games of this series that has a decent chance of going over. With that said, however, I'm rolling with the under here for 5x after cashing the over in game 2 for 10x and the under in game 3 for 10x. I think the remaining games provide a perfect chase opportunity on the under to ensure further profit in this series.
The reason I like this game 4 is the pace and specifically the slow pace played by the Heat in the fourth quarter. I know you think the Mavs will push the pace and I do agree that this will occur in the first half. However, I expect the 2h to be very slow which is consistent with the previous three games based primarily on the Heat's intent to slow the pace. The Heat consistently slow the game down to a snails pace in the fourth quarter in order to keep the ball out of the dangerous Mavs shooters and more specifically Dirk. If you check the pace statistics, you will see a signficiant dropoff from the pace of the 1h to the pace of the 2h (this is common to most playoff games in fact).
One of the reason this game stays under is your reference to Barea. As you mention, he has been shut down fully by the Heat's defense. Barea does not have the shot or length to light up the Heat as he did in the OKC or Lakers series. The Heat's perimeter defense is superior to those other teams and that is why Barea has been shut down. However, one of the Mavs' main weapon to push the pace is Barea. If he's not on his game, or even in the game, I don't think the Mavs will be able to push the pace with Kidd alone. I agree that Kidd is a smart player and Carlisle a great coach that sees the need to push the pace. However, if the Heat are purposefully going to slow the pace with defense and half-court offense that runs the clock down to 5 secs before shooting, the only way this game goes over is if both teams have a high shooting percentage. With Barea neutralized, Kidd will have to play at the top of his game for this game to go over and I don't see him shooting lights out today. Kidd just can't rely on his playmaking for this game to go over and will need to contribute 12 plus points today. I'm not sure his shooting can get it done today against the help defense of the Heat.
Based on the previous two games, I just don't think either team will top 45% shooting for this game. Because of the defense that must be played by both teams in this game, I expect both teams to shoot under 45% and hit around 35% of three pointers. The best chance for the over in this game is the free throw attempts. In game 3, there were only about 42 free throw attempts. That is nowhere near the 55+ free throw attempts we saw in the first two games. If over backers such as yourself get 55+ ft attempts, you will have a good chance at cashing as long as the teams combine for a hit rate of 75%+. However, the refs in this game do not have much of an over lean other than Willard. Both McCutchen and Davis have a slight under lean or no lean. Therefore, I expect this game to have between 48-53 ft attempts. If we get those numbers, with a 45% or less overall shooting percentage and about 35% collective three point attempt hit rate, this game should just stay under the posted total.
I have this game capped at 182-183, so I think we see more value in the under here at 187 (which is what I have). I just don't think the Mavs will be able to impose their will on the Heat and force a fast pace, when the Heat want to do the exact opposite. Now, if the Mavs start off hot and hit some early shots getting off to an early lead, then perhaps they can force the Heat to play catchup via a faster pace. However, if this game is close or if the Heat are winning in the 4th quarter, the pace will naturally slow and, barring ticky-tack free throws, this game should stay just under the posted total. Good luck.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Dallas/Miami OVER 186.5 Tonight
Reply With Quote
