[SamWise]

I've been looking at NBA playoffs closely lately.
And I kept track of final score spreads and most of the game were 7+ points apart.

Lets look at yesterday's game for example.

The line closed at Dallas Mav +4 -104 or Dallas ML at +165
and OKC -4 -106 or OKC ML at -183.

Dallas Mav's won by 7 points today in the overtime.

What if you were to take Dallas ML before the game at +165 odds and took OKC ML at +odds during the live bet when OKC is down few points from Dallas?

Basketball is a long run game and the scores fluctuate a lot.

I think this really can be done.

Lets give it a try tomorrow guys.

What do you guys all think?

[secret007]

I believe OKC was leading the whole game and never reached +money (unless when they were down at OT of course ), correct me if i'm wrong since I did not watch the game just checked the score from time to time. Had you bet Dallas before the game, you most likely wont have the chance to hedge your bet at all.

I dont think this strategy would work in the long term, I would let someone more experienced than me to answer this question for you.

[NickDiaz209]

I've been looking at NBA playoffs closely lately. And I kept track of final score spreads and most of the game were 7+ points apart. Lets look at yesterday's game for example. The line closed at Dallas Mav +4 -104 or Dallas ML at +165 and OKC -4 -106 or OKC ML at -183. Dallas Mav's won by 7 points today in the overtime. What if you were to take Dallas ML before the game at +165 odds and took OKC ML at +odds during the live bet when OKC is down few points from Dallas? Basketball is a long run game and the scores fluctuate a lot. I think this really can be done. Lets give it a try tomorrow guys. What do you guys all think?

You can't make live bets in overtime...Dallas didn't take the lead until OT...you can't make a bet after J Kidd hit the 3...and even if the books let you, you'd be taking the Mavs at -500 or -5 pts because they had all the momentum

[SamWise]

You can't make live bets in overtime...Dallas didn't take the lead until OT...you can't make a bet after J Kidd hit the 3...and even if the books let you, you'd be taking the Mavs at -500 or -5 pts because they had all the momentum

Thats not true, you can make the live bets in overtime. There are not many time it will happen like the yesterday's case. Most of the time Dallas was down by few points even to 10+ points. But usually the points fluctuate. Lets just try it out tonight. As long as you can get +150 on each side we are making a guarantee profit.

[SamWise]

So today's bet is going to be Chicago Bulls +180.

During the live bet when Heat is down by 6 or 7 points, vegas will give us about +2 or +3 -100 or Heat ML for +130 ish.

I will try to aim for that angle.

[7secondsOrLess]

of course this would work but profits are small

[BlastByou]

yes this would work but it would have small profits and you would have to make a lot of these bets to make any substantial money.

[hockey216]

it can be done. but there has to be fluctuation in the game. one bet might cancel out the other. you're looking for a double score in the middle. some games are back and forth and i love exploiting this. but other games are not. one team goes up 7 in a close game. you take the 7 points on other team. then they're up 10. you now take other team at 10. then they win by 15 and you lose it all. there has to be the right fluxuation in the game in order for it to work. sometimes it does. other times it doesn't.

[stuntin909]

i wish sbr had live betting lol

[hels]

If you are going to try this system you have to have all of your numbers figured out pre-game. It is so easy to take a team at +150 and then when the odds become even money at a point in the game you think, "shit I made a great bet and the +150 team is kicking ass, maybe I should let it ride or wait until the pre-game favourite is at +150."

The other aspect you need to think of is profit margin. Let's use the +150 example and then you plan to take the fav at -EV.
$100 @ +150 = win of $150
hedge out when fav is even money -- $125 @ +100 = $25 either way.

Therefore, for this system to work you need to have it hit 5 out of every 6 games. That's not an easy number and most likely you wouldn't get the option 5 out of 6 times.

[lolbear]

repeating what others have said small profit for too much work. and it won't work if the bulls don't lead by a decent amount at any point

[SamWise]

It will definitely be making a smaller profit then what you would wager for only one.
So for this I would have to Raise my wager so the profit is as big as how I would usually bet on one game.

Thanks for insight from everyone. When I get bored I will definitely try it out.
I think this is a pretty good method to make a safe money(sometimes)

[Bradyd]

This is just a more complicated way of betting a large favorite, except you may not have the opportunity to execute your system. (ex. a team never trails in the game).. Both have small profits and require a high win percentage to make any decent money..

[suicidekings]

This system works great when you have a big ML dog in the regular season, but it still requires capping the game and having a plan. With the smaller margin you have less to gain for the same amount of work. And you have to consider that sometimes the correct side to be on is to take the ML fave pregame, anticipating a fast start by that team and then hedge with the big ML if the team gets ahead.

[Avenger]

This is just from experience, this is the best kind of bet to make for series when you have a strong lean that an underdog will win. Then you can hedge at G3 or G4 for guaranteed profit.

I don't recommend this strategy for this game. I don't see a lot of fluctuation, I see a lot of grinding. I'm predicting a miraculous 4Q Bulls win, so if you can jump on the Heat ML, probably last 4 mins of game, it'll be a guarantee ( a very small guarantee) win.

But remember, in-game betting has really fcuked things up... lot of people are going to try this strategy and it could push Heat win SU. I think that's what happened last night, everyone jumped on Thunder bandwagon during 4Q and there was no way the books were going to take that hit. (I blame a bad job by the zebras for that game) There's nothing that points to a "must-win" for the Bulls tonight.

Just my thoughts... I'll be on Bulls + points, small.

[SamWise]

Time to take miami soon guys!!

[demens]

I've been looking at NBA playoffs closely lately.
And I kept track of final score spreads and most of the game were 7+ points apart.

Lets look at yesterday's game for example.

The line closed at Dallas Mav +4 -104 or Dallas ML at +165
and OKC -4 -106 or OKC ML at -183.

Dallas Mav's won by 7 points today in the overtime.

What if you were to take Dallas ML before the game at +165 odds and took OKC ML at +odds during the live bet when OKC is down few points from Dallas?

Basketball is a long run game and the scores fluctuate a lot.

I think this really can be done.

Lets give it a try tomorrow guys.

What do you guys all think?

I've played with this system for a while and decided it was not worth the time.

It sure seems like most NBA games have the type of flux in scores that would create plus money on both sides. But in reality that is not that case. Many games do, but you'll be making very small profits off those and the one that doesn't will kill off those small winnings. Iirc i played about 30 games and successfully got + money on both 21 times. The 9 loses caused me to break even.

There are other issues to consider as well. For the most part an early lead by the underdog on one of the public teams is not enough to get you +money on the fav at that point. So 1st qtr hot starts by the dog dont help that much, books tend to stick with the fav until later in the game or the lead grows past double digits.

Another issue is where you choose to play. I was playing at bodog and they have a tendency to not offer certain lines sometimes. Like if its an early blow out you might not get the option to bet on the team thats down. It is rare but in some cases they simply did not even offer an ML during a break for no apparent reason at all. Its one of those thing that if you dont catch it at the right time you might not get a chance to make the bet at all. Scores may fluctuate throughout the game but it does not always lead to time outs and breaks in action which is the only time you can bet.

So more games then you would think actually have 1 team lead the whole time, its not the norm but its not that unusual, so you never get a chance to bet that 2nd team at + money. Especially the fav team that the book wont be too quick to move the line. Then even if they dont lead ALL game, whatevers happening early on in the 1st qtr will not make a big difference. And then later in the game when there is a change in score you have to hope for a time out. And on top of that in some rare cases even when everything lines up there is still a small chance the line wont be offered.

Another thing that can screw you over is this. Sometimes you know the fav is going to win and you just wont get a change to hedge it at +money. So what i would do is take the spread if its reasonable enough. For example taking -2 -110 is a hell of a lot better then taking the fav at -160 or whatever it may be on the ML at that point. Again, it'll grind out a bunch of small wins, but you are risking the chance of getting middled. It happened to me once, I had the dog at like +300 and took the fav at -2 and they ended winning the game by 1 point. Not fun.


PS
Another issue to consider is limits. I have not faced these issues myself but live bets have different limits then normal ones depending on where you play. So again, when you are faced with a bet you know you will not get a chance to hedge at +money you will be every tempted to take that fav at -1000 or -2000 just to get your original bet back. If you're betting a buck then its no problem to bet 10 to save it. But if you bet $500 then a book might not take your $5000 live bet. That if the line is even offered in the 1st place. Bodog does not go past like 600 or 700 (line), i know 5dime does though.