[Inkwell77]

To go along with all the Lebron talk just thought I would bring up some stats from Lebron! I know everyone feels different about the zig-zag theory, but I thought I would look at Lebron specifically.

Lets look at what has happened after Lebron has scored less than 25 points in post-season game (as 25.5 pts is usually the over-under on a Lebron prop):

2011:
1st Round -
Philly game 1 - Lebron scores 21 points, in game 2 he scores 29 points.
Philly game 5 - Lebron scores 16 and the Heat finish the series. In Game 1 of round 2 against the Celtics Lebron scored 22 pts.

2nd Round -
Boston Game 1 - Lebron scores 22, in game 2 he scores 35 pts.
Boston Game 3 - Lebron scores 15, in game 4 he scores 35 pts.


2010:
1st Round -
Chicago Game 1 - Lebron scores 24, in game 2 he scores 40 pts.
Chicago Game 5 - Lebron scores 19 and the Cavs finish the series. In Game 1 of round 2 against the Celtics Lebron scored 35 pts.

2nd Round -
Boston Game 2 - Lebron scores 24, in game 3 he scores 38 pts.
Boston Game 4 - Lebron scores 22, in game 5 he scores 15 pts.
Boston Game 5 - Lebron scores 15, in game 6 he scores 27 pts and the Cavs lose the series.

2009:
Lebron scored 25 pts twice and more than 25 pts in every other game in the three rounds the Cavs were alive in 2009 playoffs.

This is all I have looked at, the past 3 seasons. But one could be inclined from these stats to take a serious look at Lebron going over the 25.5 pts that will most likely be the over/under for his game 2 points.

[NY Playa]

lebron can have 40 but if wade doesnt show up too they will lose again. they are overmatched at every ther position and bench players .

[san2c]

luol deng did a great job on him he looked so frustrated. that being said, you know lebron is going to get his. but 12 beats 2 !

[Sportsbetting123]

luol deng did a great job on him he looked so frustrated. that being said, you know lebron is going to get his. but 12 beats 2 !

Perfectly stated. He will get 30 so in game 2 I would guess, and the game should be closer. Hopefully the Bulls go up 2-0.

[bureK]

This is some nice info inkwell! LeBron usually wants to get his teammates involved but he failed that in game 1 - like sometimes before. He will score 30+ in game 2 and Deng will not stop him.. Who can? I will bet this prop and just hope he doesnt choke the FTs

[GTS925]

Should I go big on the over 41 for points, rebounds and assists combined?

[rickbo528]

luol deng did a great job on him he looked so frustrated. that being said, you know lebron is going to get his. but 12 beats 2 !

Exactly!!!!!! 12 beats 2 or if you wanna be nice 3. What Heat fans don't want to face is that no matter what the BIG 2 or 3 do, it is still a TEAM game. Heat are not facing old, tired legs like the Celtics in this series. There is nobody coming off the Heat bench that can match the versatility of Taj Gibson. He can affectively guard almost any position. Tell me that Wade didn't look tired last night. The younger legs and the overall depth of the Bulls bench will decide the series. If the bench keeps bringing the effort and the energy it will wear on the Heat stars. Sure James and Wade are superstars but one on one basketball will not always prevail.

Nobody expects this to be a cakewalk in Chicago and Miami will fight back hard, no doubt. But the sense I was getting from most of the Heat backers on this forum was that the Bulls shouldn't even bother showing up and should just forfiet the series. They won 62 games this year, now 71 total after last night's win. THIS IS NOT A FLUKE. They are for real. When you defend like they do for 48 minutes you will be in every game. All the players have bought in from day 1 the defensive mindset and schemes of Coach Thibadeaux.

When you defend and play team ball and REBOUND like the Bulls do, you don't have to have a lineup of superstar scorers. Being a Bulls fan I had some doubts going into last night's game. But should have realized that that the effort and hustle will always be there. The best part about the win last night was that Rose didn't have to have an all-world kind of game just to keep them in it. When the time comes I'm sure he will try to take over. Hopefully it won't be necessary too often in this series.

[kernssca]

I was happy to see Chicago finally look like the #1 seed, and Lebron will get his ( Being a Cleveland fan I know he is the best player out there) the Heat will ultimately lose the series though for the reason everyone sees. The heat are Lebron and Wade ( no idea why they thought Bosh would make them better) and the Bulls are a team with a Superstar which is what gets it done

[Inkwell77]

You all may be right about the heat losing the series, but do many think Lebron has a good shot at going over the 25.5 total in game 2?

I looked into the two games Lebron played against the Bulls in the regular season. On Feb 24th he scored 29 pts while shooting 57% from the field, 0-4 on 3-pointers, and 5-6 from the free throw line.
Then on March 6th he scored 26 pts and shot 10-18 from the field, 1-2 from 3-point area, and 5-6 from the free throw line.

So he has shown he can score some points against the Bulls.

I also looked into Miami's record and compared their record when Lebron shoots a lot versus when he shoots less:

In the Playoffs the Heat are 5-1 when Lebron attempts 19 or more shots. The Heat are 3-2 when he shoots 16 or less shots.

During the regular season the Heat were 9-1 when Lebron attempted 25 or more shots, which is very impressive, granted in these games he was most likely shooting a lot because he was feeling it.

[Inkwell77]

Should I go big on the over 41 for points, rebounds and assists combined?

In the two games against Chicago in regular season he had 44 combined and 40 combined.

Seems like a decent bet if you think he is going to score over 25 points. I like Lebron to have a big rebounding game in game 2, these are his totals for boards so far in these playoffs:

1 game with 15
2 games with 14
1 game with 10
5 games with 7
2 games with 6

[Inkwell77]

This play actually worked, sometimes the trends actually make sense and work! At the Hilton the combined points/assists/boards was 39.5 pts and that went over as well, good work everybody!