Originally Posted by
Goat Milk
Doc Rivers made huge errors in game 2 and Dantoni is the type of coach that needs time to prepare and watch film to make adjustments. His play to give it to mello on the right wing at the end of game 2 was a huge error that essentially made the trap inevitable and ultimately led to a turnover. However, the Knicks have made it clear that they are going to give Rondo anything he wants in this series.
Rivers, being up 2-0, has failed to realize the greatest mismatch of all in this series and that's Ray Allen. Even with his 24 in the first game, Doc did not utilize Ray enough. Toney Douglas and Landry Fields are both inexperienced defenders coming off screens and I wouldn't be surprised to see either of those guys get burned, but Rondo clearly wants to try and take control of the offense and more importantly, is hesitant to give the ball up early in the shot clock. This is on obvious mistake seen on film that a guy like Rivers will not pay attention to because the offense ran fairly efficiently. I know Rivers like the back of my hand and called the exact adjustments he made in the Magic series and in the finals against the lakers last year. He is not going to even be paying attention to offense here as he thinks defensively, Boston did not play championship defense.
Watching the film again, there is nothing Boston is going to be able to adjust defensively against the Knicks in either home game. Carmello knows that he can create a shot for himself or others at any point in this game. There isn't 1 guy on Boston that can guard him, and Rivers is playing with fire trying to put guys like Jeff Green on him when Pierce needs a breather. You can double team Carmello all you want, but with Stoudemire back, and Billups for at least 1 of these games, the Celtics won't be so fortunate when doubling Melo. Rewatching the last play specifically where Anthony forced it into Jared Jefferies, Jared did not have any positioning on Garnett. Stoudemire would have made that play difficult for Garnett. The previous offensive possession for the Knicks where Jefferies got the pass on the left wing perimeter and had the easy lane to the bucket--with all the attention on Anthony he had a free lane but still did not finish with authority. Having stoudemire in the game in that instance, its not a layup, its a dunk, and perhaps and And1.
In the first two games, when the Celts bench has been in the game, Rivers has tried to run a lot of his offense through Davis and Jeff Green in the post. Green is a good post player but with Jared Jefferies is solid on the defensive end and should be able to make it difficult for him at least, although Green is the much better player, he still has yet to find his role with the Celtics, especially on the road in the playoffs in big games like this. Another mistake is trying to run any offense whatsoever through Davis. Against any solid post defense like Turiaf or whoever it may be on that possession, Davis cannot play one on one and sometimes they've been giving it to him late in the shot clock and expecting him to create a shot. Even when the starting 5 are in the game, I don't care how good the celtics defense is, if Rondo and Rivers don't recognize that they have the biggest mismatch on the floor in Ray Allen (even bigger than any matchup on Anthony), they're not going to win these 2 games in the Garden.
Rivers is in my opinion the best coach in the NBA, but his unwillingness to pay attention to his offense in these games is going to cost him big time. The problems with the Celtics are not defensively. There is nothing you can do against Carmello if he's having that type of night. It's just one of those nights, and clearly he is going to be able to get his anytime he wants. It doesn't matter if he is 7-20 shooting, he's going to create plays all night and with ball movement there is nothing Boston is going to be able to do to stop that. Rivers said "our offense will work itself out." I'm surprised to here him say this with all the recent offensive struggles by Boston (espeically in the palyoffs) in the past 3 years. Boston goes on COMPLETE dry spells offensively sometimes where they can't buy a bucket. You're not going to discourage a team like the Knicks by getting a few stops on them like you would other teams. You won't intimidate them.
Stoudemire proved in the first game he can get anything he wants as well. I consider Garnett one of the better defenders in all of basketball, but I'll take Better O over Better D anyday. Rivers has also toyed with the idea of putting Davis on Stoudemire at certain times which was a complete joke, as this was the time that Stoudemire did his most damage.
As far as both Benches, I do not trust Bostons bench on the road. A guy like Delonte West is solely a rhythm player. On an off night, if he misses a couple shots, he becomes hesitant to pull the trigger, sometimes only taking 2-3 shots in 20+ minutes of play. Toney Douglis is a tough matchup for any of the celtics players, specifically Ray Allen who doesn't like getting low and playing smaller guys- but rather, the stronger post players like Bryant where he is more effective. Other supporting guys like Bill Walker and Landry Fields should play well at home. With all the attention on Carmello even when Chancey and Stout were not in the game, these guys were getting free driving lanes to the bucket and they are both physical hard-nose players. Walker specifically had ALOT of open lanes and he was just not able to finish around the rim. In game 2, Walker was 0-11 and 0-5 from the arc. Walker is a mismatch off the bench for any Celtics player (off the bench), which explains why he is seeing a lot of minutes in this series. I expect Dantoni to divide the time more evenly between him and Landry Fields. Shawn Williams and Anthony Carter are both solid as they come on the defensive end for bench players. Roger Mason is another option that can come in and stretch the defense.
Overall, The KNicks are going to live with Rondo thinking he can carry Boston offensively because that's not going to work for more than a game or 2. Boston is not utilizing its greatest mismatches, and their performances at home were downright PATHETIC. I don't care what the stats show. Besides the last 2 minutes where Boston played like the Championship team they are, they are in big trouble these games and will lose both in what I consider a Rivalry series, and in Rivalry series, Both teams win at home. These are starters games for Boston and I expect big games from Pierce, Ray and Garnett in these games for Boston to have a chance.
$550 on the Knicks -3
$320 to win $200 on the Knicks -160
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
The Knicks will win both games at home
Reply With Quote
