[demens]

So i decided to try capping some games mathematically and compare how those lines look vs the vegas lines. I used 6 different methods in the process eliminated some and marked the results i liked. So I'll try to break down into 3 categories, what i think the proper line is (using my favorite method), what i think the line will be (using a method i dont particularly like but seems to be getting closer results) and the actual line.

Some of the lines are already out so i'll start with those.

THESE ARE NOT PLAYS! THIS IS JUST INFORMATION.
Also, the numbers are adjusted for a lot of things but not for injuries.
Minnesota @ New Jersey
What i think it would be:-2.5/202
What i think it should be: -4.5/199
What it is: -5.5/202
Note: My lines are not adjusted for Kevin Love being out. There is also a very small sample size of Nets games with Deron Williams. The middle line is somewhat adjusted for that.

Milwaukee @ Orlando
What i think it would be:-9/202
What i think it should be: -7.5/179
What it is: -8.5/179

L.A. Clippers @ Memphis
What i think it would be:-9.5/200
What i think it should be: -8.5/202
What it is: -9/199

Sacramento @ Houston
What i think it would be:-9.5/215
What i think it should be: -10/214
What it is: -9.5/220

Oklahoma City @ Denver
What i think it would be:-5/217
What i think it should be: -2/214
What it is: -4.5/207

Golden State @ Portland
What i think it would be:-8.5/201
What i think it should be: -8.5/199
What it is: -10.5/200

Now the games that aren't out:

San Antonio @ Atlanta
What i think it would be:3.5/193
What i think it should be: 2.5/194
What it is:

Charlotte @ Cleveland
What i think it would be: 2/190
What i think it should be: 1/185
What it is:

Tue. April 5, 2011 Detroit Washington 7 p.m.
Philadelphia @ Boston
What i think it would be: -7/186
What i think it should be: -5.5/187
What it is:

Toronto @ New York
What i think it would be: -10/219
What i think it should be: -12.5/221
What it is:


Phoenix @ Chicago
What i think it would be:-11.5/201
What i think it should be: -10.5/201
What it is:

Utah @ L.A. Lakers
What i think it would be: -11.5/199
What i think it should be: -12.5/200
What it is:

Detroit @ Washington
What i think it would be: PK/199
What i think it should be: -1.5/191
What it is:


Dont care much about the totals being close, was doing this to see how the spreads work out. One of the methods to get spreads required totals so i did that too but used a very basic method. None of this factors in injuries or motivational factors. It does factor in home court and the should be line factors in recent form.

[forzuto13]

Nice capping. I try to do that too sometimes to give me a feeling on how I should bet. Totals are a bitch to figure out, in my opinion.

I'd hate to be Utah going into L.A. after Lakers lost that Sunday game. Lakers usually get a good rebound blowout against crappy teams. Depends on Bynum/Gasol status too I guess.

Side note: what do you think of the Memphis/Sac total? Public is on the over but the under looks good to me.

[demens]

I'm not sure if i like the Lakers that much. They have sucked covering spreads of 8+ at home and they might be more concerned with resting Bynum and Gasol since its almost play-off time. Then again, i wouldn't bet anything on Utah these days either.

I dont do totals period so no opinion on that. I think both Houston and Memphis win easily but hate the lines, no edge on either team. I might play Memph anyway. Wont play Houston cause i think the line is too high and Kings can cover it, i would see this game as a blow out but Rockets have NO the next day in a MUST WIN game for them.

Kind of shitty card actually, even with 13 games.

[suicidekings]

I'm not sure if i like the Lakers that much. They have sucked covering spreads of 8+ at home and they might be more concerned with resting Bynum and Gasol since its almost play-off time. Then again, i wouldn't bet anything on Utah these days either.

I dont do totals period so no opinion on that. I think both Houston and Memphis win easily but hate the lines, no edge on either team. I might play Memph anyway. Wont play Houston cause i think the line is too high and Kings can cover it, i would see this game as a blow out but Rockets have NO the next day in a MUST WIN game for them.

Kind of shitty card actually, even with 13 games.

With Houston's current position in the standings, both games are must-win games for them. New Orleans' season will likely come down to their last 3 games, in which they play @MEM, UTA, @DAL and I expect them to lose to both MEM & DAL. However if Houston doesn't close the gap before then, they're done. With B2B wins the Rockets can pull to within 1.5 games.

[demens]

Every game is a must win with 5 games left. But the Rockets will remain alive even if they lose to the Kings. If they beat the Kings but lose to NO instead they are mathematically eliminated down 4 game with 4 games left to play but NO will own the tie breaker.

They must win each game, i just think their match-up with NO might be enough of a distraction not to win by double figures. I still think they will, but its enough of a factor not to play it imo.

[forzuto13]

Yeah, tomorrow's card does suck. I like Memhpis more than anything. I'll play the under as a small side.

[No coincidences]

Interesting. Thanks for sharing demens.

[politicin]

this thread should be an excellent source for laughs in the coming weeks

[riskyProps]

this thread should be an excellent source for laughs in the coming weeks

Why? Do you think the favs won't cover the spreads?

[Avenger]

How did you cap the Grizz v clippers game? Last time was a 23 pt blowout by Griz. I'm expecting the same today. I've got a thread on it if you want to know why.

[demens]

Here we go, all the lines are out, lets check the result. I'll grade the spread correct if its within 1 point of the real up, and the total if its in within 3. Will be marked Green and Red.

Minnesota @ New Jersey
What i think it would be:-2.5/202
What i think it should be: -4.5/199
What it is: -5.5/202
Note: My lines are not adjusted for Kevin Love being out. There is also a very small sample size of Nets games with Deron Williams. The middle line is somewhat adjusted for that.

Milwaukee @ Orlando
What i think it would be:-9/179 (this was 202, it was a typo)
What i think it should be: -7.5/179
What it is: -8.5/179

L.A. Clippers @ Memphis
What i think it would be:-9.5/200
What i think it should be: -8.5/202
What it is: -9/199

Sacramento @ Houston
What i think it would be:-9.5/215
What i think it should be: -10/214
What it is: -9.5/220

Oklahoma City @ Denver
What i think it would be:-5/217
What i think it should be: -2/214
What it is: -4.5/207

Golden State @ Portland
What i think it would be:-8.5/201
What i think it should be: -8.5/199
What it is: -10.5/200

Now the games that aren't out:

San Antonio @ Atlanta
What i think it would be:3.5/193
What i think it should be: 2.5/194
What it is: 3/194

Charlotte @ Cleveland
What i think it would be: 2/190
What i think it should be: 1/185
What it is: 2/190

Tue. April 5, 2011 Detroit Washington 7 p.m.
Philadelphia @ Boston
What i think it would be: -7/186
What i think it should be: -5.5/187
What it is: -6.5/187

Toronto @ New York
What i think it would be: -10/219
What i think it should be: -12.5/221
What it is: -9/221


Phoenix @ Chicago
What i think it would be:-11.5/201
What i think it should be: -10.5/201
What it is: -10/204

Utah @ L.A. Lakers
What i think it would be: -11.5/199
What i think it should be: -12.5/200
What it is: -14/193

Detroit @ Washington
What i think it would be: PK/199
What i think it should be: -1.5/191
What it is:

Comparison results:
What i think it would be:
Spread: 8-4
Total: 9-3
What i think it should be:
Spread: 7-5
Total: 8-4
--------------------
2 games that were off are
Nets vs Minny: Because of Loves injury and sample sample of Nets with DWill
Lakers vs Utah: Small sample of Jazz without DWill
Port vs GS: Not really sure why, recent form maybe and a significant adjustments for HCA?

[Bostongambler]

I agree, nice job with the capping

[demens]

I have to say, i think it worked out pretty well for my 1st time with the raw numbers. Honestly the games that were off i would have adjusted for outside factors and i think the lines would have been dead on.

Now the question might be is it even worth doing this since that work is done by the books already. Is it worth trying to spend time finding a mistake and looking for an edge thats not gonna be there 99% of the time or is my time best spent trying to concentrate on which team has a good chance of beating those lines from a situational stand point.

[forzuto13]

I have to say, i think it worked out pretty well for my 1st time with the raw numbers. Honestly the games that were off i would have adjusted for outside factors and i think the lines would have been dead on.

Now the question might be is it even worth doing this since that work is done by the books already. Is it worth trying to spend time finding a mistake and looking for an edge thats not gonna be there 99% of the time or is my time best spent trying to concentrate on which team has a good chance of beating those lines from a situational stand point.

The latter, in my opinion. You can always see what match-ups you like at first and then come up with a spread in your mind, compare it with actual line, and then put some time in capping it to your advantage. But it's always good to guess a line on a match-up you would see some value in playing, just for analysis reasons.

[demens]

I'm trying to set up and spreadsheet that does all this crap automatically. It took me maybe like 5 hours to do those 13 lines (keep in mind i did 10 methods total), its def not worth the time. But if i can figure out how to set up the spreadsheet then its all good. Not easy, but not hard, just takes a bit of research. I wish i would have been into gambling when i was in school, i'd probably bang out some programs in no time, now i dont remember how to do any of this shit.

[ManBearPig]

You did all those by hand? Wow, that's pretty solid for your first crack. Did you say you did 10 calcs per game? I've set up two databases along with a spreadsheet trying to gather and set data up all year, and find the mathematical approach very interesting. I like that I can take out the emotion, mostly, and let the numbers do the talking but I find that I still have a lot to learn and even bought some books to help.

Just get a foundation and build off that because you will find stuff to tweak going forward, but make sure that you make using new data as easy as possible because it can be a pain in the ass to figure out how you want to use the data once you get it, which is the main reason I like the DB approach. I can just build a query and find whatever I want and use it from there. I'll be curious what you come up with for the remainder of the season...Good Luck

[demens]

11 methods actually. It sucked cause a few of them got identical results and were a waste of time but it was good learning. Working on that spreadsheet, its going well so far. Importing data from the web into a table and a schedule on another sheet and it should spit out the lines for me and its all done. We'll see.

[alydar]

so with all that work and handicapping
what are the picks u see as a go for tonight?

[demens]

I didn't see any edge in any of the games. My lines were basically what the books had whatever .5 point edge i had was killed off by the juice. The 3 games that were off i adjusted for situational factors and decided not to play.

Only bet i made today was Grizz -9.
A few plays for points only, Wiz ML, OKC ML and Bucks +8.5