[bigboydan]

**No. 4 Cleveland vs. No. 5 Washington**

Series Price: Cleveland -230, Washington +190

Series Format: Cleveland, 2-2-1-1-1


Skinny: Like a lot of other teams in the playoffs, it appears Cleveland’s hopes will rest on one player’s shoulders. LeBron James is arguably the Most Valuable Player this season and his numbers (31 PPG, 7 RPG, 6 APG) are mind blowing. The Cavaliers go as James goes and it showed in the four meetings between the two teams. LeBron poured in 37 in the first meeting of the year, but was held to a combined 41 points in the next two contests. The fourth game was meaningless for Cleveland and it showed, with 12 players earning minutes. The X-factor for the Cavs will be Larry Hughes, who dropped 22 in the first contest before missing most of the season with a wrist injury.

Washington parallels Cleveland with its own featured playmaker in point guard Gilbert Arenas, but the Wizards also have solid players in Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler. Arenas has ripped the Cavs for 32, 26 and 35 in the three victories, but only 18 point on 4-of-17 shots in the double-digit setback. This three-headed monster resembles New Jersey’s trio of Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson.

Gambling Notes: The four-five matchup is always the most competitive battle in the first round since consistency is hard to find. Neither the Cavs nor Wizards are dominant at home, so taking a flyer on the road team to win outright is definitely a suggestion. The point-spread hasn’t played a role in any of the first four meetings this season. Don’t be afraid to lay the points if you like the ‘chalk’ and never hesitate to play the money-line if you favor the puppy.


Total players could get trapped in this series. Early in the year, you couldn’t go wrong with the Cavs-Over parlay, but that was when Lebron, Hughes and the treys from Donyell Marshall and Damon Jones were dropping easily. After Hughes got hurt, the offense sputtered, resulting in a 46-35 ‘under’ mark on the year.

Some numbers to look at when ‘capping totals is field goal attempts per game and free throw attempts game. The latter is key to totals, especially for ‘over’ players. The Wizards are averaging 30 attempts per game, ranked second in the league, while the Cavs are taking 28 shots from the stripe. That’s a possibility of 58 attempts per game from both teams. Even if you hit 70 percent, you’re still getting 40 points and the clock isn’t running!

Outlook: Can the Cavaliers win a playoff series for the first time in over 13 years (1992-93), when Mark Price and Larry Nance roamed the city of Cleveland? It’s very possible, but it depends on the health of Hughes and center Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Ironically, Hughes signed with Cleveland in the offseason after playing for Washington last year. He’s playoff tested and could be the difference against the Wizards.

Washington will use a center by committee approach against “Z” with Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas sharing the duties. That still won’t do the trick unless Ilgauskas’ ankle acts up again or gets in early foul trouble. Even though the Wizards don’t match up well in the frontcourt, the Cavs won’t have an answer for Arenas and Antonio Daniels. Experience also goes to the Wizards in this spot, with last year’s first round series victory over Chicago in six games boosting confidence for Eddie Jordan’s crew.

It’s been said that Legends are created in the playoffs and all eyes will be on LeBron. Can he carry his team for another four wins or will he fall to the pressure in his first playoff spot? Whoever wins this series, will most likely need seven games to get it done.

Future Advice: When you have a series that is this close, it’s almost a given to take the underdog, especially at 2/1 odds. You can grab Washington early and hope they steal a win at the “Q” in the first two games, then hold serve at MCI. Hedge opportunities will then appear in Game 6 or 7.

[bigboydan]

**No. 1 Detroit vs. No. 8 Milwaukee**

Series Price: Detroit -3,500, Milwaukee +2,200

Series Format: Detroit, 2-2-1-1-1

Skinny: You could call this series “Redd vs. Rip”, considering the two-guards have gone back and forth all year long against one another. The Bucks Michael Redd has posted 23, 41, 37 and 19 in the four games, while the Pistons Richard Hamilton notched 20, 35 and 25 before sitting out the last game. Keep in mind Detroit rested its players the last week of the season, which is why the Bucks’ 20-point victory on Apr. 17 isn’t as impressive as it looks. The first game (11/26) was a defensive battle, with neither team shooting over 40 percent. Detroit collapsed in the second meeting (1/25) before rallying in overtime past the Bucks and then rallied once again with a 67-46 second half in the Mar. 31 tilt for its third straight win over Milwaukee.

Gambling Notes: Detroit is 16-19 against the spread when listed as a road favorite and you won’t see this team catching any points until the Eastern Conference Finals. The Bucks on the other hand are 4-5 ATS when tabbed a home ‘dog. The totals between these teams have ranged from 187 to 194. Remember the last game was a throw away, but the first three games showed cracks in the Bucks’ defense. Also, it showed that Detroit’s offense likes to get up and down.


Last year, Detroit played in 25 postseason games. Only two teams were able to eclipse the century mark. For the most part, playoff basketball reverts to the half-court style more, which in turn favors low-scoring possession for possession games. Also, you need 16 wins in the playoffs to capture The NBA Finals. Detroit fell to San Antonio in seven games, only reaching 15 victories in the postseason. Chew on this stat – 13 of the 15 came by nine points or more! Don’t be scared laying wood in the playoffs, especially with sound teams.

Outlook: Detroit is clearly the best team in the Eastern Conference if not the league. The club didn’t skip a beat after seeing former head coach Larry Brown leave for New York in the summer. Their new leader Flip Saunders is finally is getting the credit he deserves, even if he does have a squad that features four All Stars. Another coach getting a second chance is the Bucks’ Terry Stotts. Terry was dealt a poor hand in his previous tenure at Atlanta, but like Flip has proven that he can lead a team filled with veterans and rookies.

The Pistons don’t lose at home, only four times on the season and the last defeat was a throw-away game. The other three setbacks were by a combined 15 points, including an overtime loss. They just can’t be beat at The Palace of Auburn Hills and that’s why they’re not going to lose this series. Toss in the Bucks’ sub-par road mark and you’ve got a longshot on your hands, hence the series odds.

I want to say that Milwaukee might catch one victory at Bradley Center, but even then you’re reaching. You will not will in the playoffs by allowing triple digits and you can’t advance with only one option on offense (Redd).

Future Advice: The series price is way too high, but search the offshore scene and you might be able cash the Pistons in four or five games proposition wager.

[bigboydan]

No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 8 Sacramento Kings**

Series Price: San Antonio is a minus 1,400 (risk $1,400 to win $100) favorite for the series. Gamblers can back Sacramento for a plus-900 payoff (risk $100 to win $900).

Skinny: Both teams are in the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season, but this is the first time they have met in in the postseason. Nobody is surprised to see San Antonio poised to defend its title, but Sacramento has turned heads with its strong late-season push. Give credit to Kings GM Geoff Petrie, who pulled the trigger on a risky move when he acquired mercurial forward Ron Artest from the Pacers for Peja Stojakovic. Artest has been on his best behavior in Sac-Town, leading the team to a 26-14 record down the stretch. These clubs squared off three times during the regular season with the Spurs winning the first two meetings, but those were tight games before the Artest trade. With Artest in the lineup on April 5, the Kings won 97-87 at San Antonio thanks to a monster game from Mike Bibby (31 points, 8 assists, 7 rebounds).

Gambling Notes:

--Sacramento covered the spread in all three head-to-head meetings this year.

--The 'under' is on a 6-1 run in the last seven head-to-head tilts between these Western Conference adversaries.

--Rick Adelman's team is 9-5-1 ATS in its last 15 spots as underdogs. The Kings have won outright in each of their last three games as 'dogs.

--Sacramento is 24-17 ATS at home.

--The 'under' is 13-5 in Sacramento's last 18 games.

Outlook: San Antonio could have its hands full against the Kings, who have three quality bigs (Kenny Thomas, Brad Miller and Shareef Abdur-Rahim), a superstar (Ron Artest) and one of the best shooters in post-season history (Mike Bibby). Those players, along with Bonzi Wells, give the Kings enough talent to beat anyone on a given night when they bring their A-Game. And, lest we forget, Adelman has plenty of post-season experience and won't be outdueled in the "X and O" Dept.

Nevertheless, the Spurs are the premier squad with one of the league's top coaches. They have the homecourt advantage, more experience in the playoffs and most importantly, Tim Duncan. Did we mention the league's second best defense? I won't be shocked if the Kings win a couple of games in the series, but in the end, I'll take the Spurs to advance in a six-game series.

Future Advice: Well, backing the Spurs is impossible at the super-chalky price, but a small wager on the Kings at plus 900 might be worth consideration. If Sacramento can steal a game in San Antonio, then perhaps take a 2-1 series advantage with a win at ARCO, then some hedge opportunities could present themselves.

[bigboydan]

**No. 2 Phoenix vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers**

Series Price: Phoenix is listed as a decided $6.00 ‘chalk’ (bet $600 to win $100) to win this best-of-seven series, while Los Angeles is a $4.00 underdog (bet $100 to win $400).

Skinny: These two Western Conference rivals have quite a postseason history against one another, with Los Angeles enjoying a decided advantage. However, Phoenix beat Los Angeles during the first round of the 1993 playoffs en route to the NBA Finals. The Suns were the top seed that year, but dropped the first two games of that five-game series.

Los Angeles beat Phoenix in seven postseason series starting in 1970, but Phoenix won the next two series with wins in 1990 and 1993. The Lakers got back on track by knocking out the Suns out of the 2000 postseason en route to another championship.


This year’s matchup could very easily be billed as a continuation of the regular-season race for MVP between the Lakers’ Kobe Bryant and the Suns’ Steve Nash. Bryant single handily led the Lakers to the postseason by leading the league with a 35.4 points per game average.

The 27-year-old averaged 42.5 points per game this season in four games against Phoenix, with a high of 51 points in an April 7 setback as an 8 1/2-point road underdog, 107-96. That game illustrated the problem that the Lakers have in this series, relying too much on their superstar.

Phoenix point guard Steve Nash is the reigning league MVP, and he might have had a better season this year. The crafty Canadian enjoyed another solid campaign despite not having star center Amare Stoudemire to pass to all season.

Nash finished the year by averaging 18.8 points per contest, 10.5 assists and 4.2 rebounds. The postseason has no bearing on the MVP race, and this year the award figures to go to either Bryant, Nash or Cleveland’s LeBron James.

Gambling Note: Los Angeles was a pedestrian 18-23 straight up when playing on the road this season, but a solid 24-16 against the spread. The Lakers dropped those affairs by an average score of 98-97, helping the ‘under’ go 24-16.

Phoenix captured its second straight Pacific Division title for the first time in team history due to its 31-10 SU and 22-19 ATS home ledger. The Suns managed to win their home affairs by an average score of 110-100, helping the ‘over’ go 22-18.

Phoenix has dominated Los Angeles recently, going 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS the previous eight encounters. The Lakers won the most recent matchup Sunday as an 8 1/2-point home favorite, 109-89, but the Suns were already locked into the second seed and rested most of their starters. The ‘under’ has also cashed the past three games between these teams, with the lowest total during that tenure being 211 ½.

Outlook: Los Angeles is back in the postseason after a brief hiatus following the Kobe-Shaq falling out. The Lakers will need to step up as a team to advance in the postseason, because just relying on Kobe will not get you very far outside of the regular season. Bryant will get his points this series even though Phoenix figures to rotate defenders on him.

The Suns are one of the most exciting teams to watch, but their run-and-gun style isn’t a proven winner in the playoffs. The old adage says that defense wins championships, and trying to outscore teams will not put banners up in the rafters. However, Phoenix has enough talent and postseason experience to take this series in five or six games.

Los Angeles forward Luke Walton (concussion) has been upgraded from ‘questionable’ to probable’ for Sunday’s Game 1, while center Chris Mihm is ‘questionable’ with an ankle injury. Phoenix forward Boris Diaw missed the last game due to strep throat, but is ‘probable’ versus the Lakers. Center Kurt Thomas is still recovering from a foot injury, and hopes to be back by the second or third round of the playoffs.

Future Advice: It really doesn’t favor betting the ‘chalk’ in the series price when the line is as high as it is, so you would be better wagering on the individual games. Game 1 is slated for Sunday, with Phoenix installed as an 11-point favorite with a total of 217.

That is the highest total by far of all the opening games this weekend, 20 ½ points above the Denver-Clippers contest. ABC Sports will provide coverage of Sunday’s contest beginning at 3:30 p.m. ET.

[moses millsap]

I need to get caught back up with what's been going on in the Association. I haven't been paying attention at all since bases started up again.

[bigboydan]

i'm gonna cap these series bud. if i am not 100% certian on a series, i'm just going to stick with bases.

[imgv94]

I hate to mention my liking for a heavy favorite, BUT CLEV -230 looks like
pretty good to me. I might bet $460 to make $200. If I lose though
I might

[bigboydan]

the price on that series is down to clev -180 range right now IMG.

[imgv94]

the price on that series is down to clev -180 range right now IMG.

I'm going to bet $180 and make an easy $100 I think.

Too many ESPN analysts have predicted the Wizards.
I think the Cavs are a much better team than the
Wizards.

[Dark Horse]

At about +300 I might take a shot at IND winning the series.