Everything is bigger in Texas and this week the one thing that definitely is bigger is the pool of candidates to win. We’ve got the entire stable from Hendrick Motor Sports, Roush Racing, Joe Gibbs Racing, DEI, and now the new old school sentimental favorite, Petty Enterprises? Yes, that’s right, I did say Petty. They have elevated their talent inside the car and outside in the pits beginning with the famed No. 43 Carolina Blue Dodge driven by Bobby Labonte.
When looking for odds to win, there should be a bunch of top flight drivers within the 10 to 14/1 range. Bobby Labonte will be closer to 40 to 1, but he must be considered a candidate because of the way he ran at his favorite track of Atlanta a few weeks ago. We bring up Atlanta because the tracks are very similar in size, distance, banking, and width.
Kasey Kahne won that race in Atlanta and chances are he’ll be one of the drivers to beat again this week. He finished second to Elliott Sadler during his rookie season but then ran into some foul luck last year with a 35th and 42nd.
Mark Martin has finished second in the last Texas race and also this year in Atlanta. Wonder how he’ll do this week? Wouldn’t be a stretch at all to say fifth or better would it? Martin also comes from that stable of drivers in the Roush organization that has lapped every other team in Texas. In 10 Texas Cup race, Roush has won five of those with Martin winning the second ever race there back in ’98.
The other Roush drivers to conquer in Texas are Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, and Carl Edwards. Each and every one of those drivers has a good shot of winning this week. Burton should run well too and has some value in matchups.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished third in Atlanta three weeks ago, but the DEI entry that may have surprised everyone that day wasn’t really “officially” a DEI entry. Robby Gordon was set to challenge for the top 2 spots late in the race using a DEI engine at odds of 125 to 1 or higher. You can forget about odds like that again, but 75 to 1 shouldn’t be hard to find.
While Roush has pegged all the Texas wins, Jeff Gordon is still looking for that first elusive Texas victory. It is one of the few tracks Gordon hasn’t won on in his great career. His teammate, Jimmie Johnson, hasn’t won there either, which is shocking because of all his success at Charlotte and Atlanta. Johnson has done very well at Texas without winning. He’s never finished worse than ninth with a best of third in five career starts.
A driver you may want to pick on but then have to double and triple think about it because of his name is Tony Stewart. In eight career races, Stewart's best finish is a fifth and it's his only top 5. He has done well in Atlanta and Charlotte over his career so beware, but if you can get a Roush driver like Kenseth, Biffle, or Martin against him, the value looks to be there. Maybe a fourth look is needed, still! Stewart is like playing with fire when betting against him....the Oakland Raiders of NASCAR.
We'll update this weekend on the top candidates chassis selection and also some surprises during practice.
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