So here’s the deal, you want to bet the Daytona 500, you want to get to the point, you want the winner. I got three syllabels for you, Chev-ro-let. Okay, so that’s a really bad Dennis Leary impression, nevertheless, it is pretty much the story this week. How can you go anywhere else but a Chevy dealership this week to find a winner for the 2006 Daytona 500? The only way you could possibly make a case for a Ford wager is if there is a huge overlay price on the top candidates and to make a case for Dodge, well that will take much more time with a lot of bad excuses.


Elliot Sadler has been looking good in practice runs from Daytona.
In the last 10 Daytona races, including both the 500 and midseason firecracker, the score read Chevrolet eight wins, Ford and Dodge each with one victory. If we go to Talladega, the only other restrictor plate track, and go over the last 14 races there the score reads Chevrolet 13, Ford 1. Then of course you factor everything else in leading up to this race such as the Fords being inferior in testing, practice, and the fact that this is the first year of the Ford Fusion. Throw in Dodge and how much all the teams cant stand the new Charger to the point where they are bringing back the Intrepid to a few races despite the factory saying they don’t like it....well I’m looking at the facts and it doesn’t look so good for the guys without bow-ties.



Rather than being completely negative regarding all but Chevy, let’s try and be somewhat positive and attempt to make a case for a few Ford guys.



The first group you have to start with is Robert Yates led by Elliott Sadler and Dale Jarrett. Sadler has been one of the strongest overall in testing and practice while Dale Jarrett has quite a few things going his favor, most notably three Daytona 500 wins. Jarrett also won the last restrictor plate race to date. Remember the Talladega stat above that read 13 to 1 in Chevy’s favor? Well the one win was Jarrett. Maybe the momentum is starting to shift Fords way and all the money and effort Yates has put into his plate program is ready to come to fruition. Robert Yates is in the NASCAR game specifically to win the Daytona 500. This is the race all the sponsors want to win. This is the race that that pays the bills and from all the testing he’s done over the last two years, the bills are pretty large.



Of the two, you have to go with Jarrett just because of his experience. Sadler might have the better equipment but I still cant think of any other moment for Sadler in a plate race other than him flipping a dozen times and my second memory of him in a plate race is flipping only six times. Roush Racing has quite a few drivers to take a look at and they have benefited from all of Yates restrictor plate testing. Jack Roush has just about done it all in his career as an owner except win the Daytona 500. It seems very bizarre that a guy who has almost one eighth of the field under his command for the last few decades can’t get the big win. He finally won a championship with Kenseth and then followed it with Kurt Busch the next. Jack Roush is smart though.



The reality of things is that restrictor plate racing is only four races. Why put all your marbles into one basket when winning championships is about doing well on the cookie cutter tracks. Roush eventually will want to win Daytona and he will press some day, but I think he is quite happy winning Championships and being the King of down force tracks. If there was one team to look at from the Roush camp I would have to say it was Kurt Busch’s old squad led by crew chief Jimmy Fennig and driven by Jamie McMurray. Busch had always been strong at Daytona and Talladega and had the best set up car in the Roush stable thanks to Fennig. Busch finished second in last years Daytona 500 and McMurray also happened to finish second in last years midseason Firecracker 400. J-Macs odds will be in the 20 to 1 range which presents pretty good value.



Finding a leader to key on from the Dodges is a deep search but it just might be Bobby Labonte or Scott Riggs, both long shots, but both with huge upsides. The upside being that if you bet on them and they win, your pockets will be lined with odds of 85 to 1 or higher. Rigges finished fourth in the Daytona 500 last season and has had the best times from the Evernham camp which is easily the most backed Dodge team in NASCAR. Labonte has a whole staff prepping his cars at Petty Enterprises and it appears that team is very confident for the first time in two decades. There is a buzz going around in North Carolina among teams in the garages and the media that Petty might finally be back as a player in NASCAR. No more cutting edges, saving a buck here, or going 75 percent effort. They want to be a winner and apparently Dodge is doing all they can to help and assist based on all data Ray Evernham has accumulated.



Now that we have discussed a few Fords and Dodges as the appetizer, let’s get to the spicy Meatball, because there are a ton of candidates to win this week and they all drive Chevrolet.



Dale Earnhardt Jr. (5-1): This car is pretty sleek in the draft and is designed exactly to Junior’s specifications. It’s slow by itself but when other cars get around it he goes pretty well. Look for Junior to be near the front all day and would not be surprised to see his teammate Martin Truex Jr. next to him.



The Hendrick team of drivers has three strong candidates led by six time Daytona winner and defending 500 Champion, Jeff Gordon (9-2). Jimmie Johnson (8-1) and Kyle Busch (15-1) will be right along Jeffy’s side at the end of the race and in perfect position to take the checkers themselves. Those three drivers will pose as a very intimidating wall against all others down the stretch and its hard to conceive anyone busting the blockade, they are that good.

Gordon has had all the past success, but Johnson seems like the driver who is ready to bust out into the spotlight. We’re talking about a guy who Madison Avenue can’t wait for a guy who was just on the television show Las Vegas. If that’s not a sign..........well it is a stretch, but still, Johnson is a star waiting to burst and this could be it.



Kyle Busch has the misfortune of already being judged by the NASCAR Nation because of his brother. We love him in Las Vegas, and Kurt, for that matter. Preseason testing says Kyle is the one this week, however, his Busch and Cup restrictor plate races last year were awful. I always wondered how Kurt Busch did so well in plate races with no experience. It was just a natural gift I suppose, but I think the restrictor plate gene pool instinct skipped Kyle. He has all the tools to be great but the learning experience may take a while longer. However, his car is very fast! Richard Childress has not been the factor he used to be in plate races. Perhaps that has something to do with Dale Earnhardt not being there and a little something to do with the Knuckleheads he has driving for him.



Kevin Harvick and Robby Gordon had success for him; they just didn’t pile up many wins. Throw Jeff Burton in the mix along with rookie Clint Bowyer and now Childress has two character guys that can be charismatic without punching someone. Burton won at Daytona in July of 2000 and could be set up perfectly for a nice resurrection of his career.



A few long shots to take a look at this week also drive Chevrolet:



Sterling Marlin at 80 to 1 is a great choice and Bill Elliott at 40 to 1 will make it interesting down the stretch. I expect both of those drivers and Joe Nemechek to be in the front pack for much of the race. That is basically all you ask for when wagering on the Daytona 500. Who will be around late in the race? Not only do those three drivers have smarts and past Daytona 500 wins, but they have fast engines with Hendrick Motorsports powering their rides.