Ford 400: Johnson Wraps It Up
Game Time: 11/18/2007 03:30 PM
By: Brian Gabrielle | bgsports.com
Jimmie Johnson only has to finish 18th or better in Miami Sunday to take home the Cup. Don't look for JJ to relax and take it easy, however, as he wants to win going away.
Last Week: For the Phoenix event, I said we'd specifically stay away from Jimmie Johnson because (a) his odds stunk, and (b) I didn't like his chances of winning a fourth straight Nextel Cup race.
Ooops.
Johnson did come through at +450, but we didn't have a piece of him. However, we did have Kyle Busch topping his big brother Kurt in a head-to-head match-up; Kyle finished eighth while Kurt finished 12th. That victory (at -175) gave us a weekly win, if only by the skin of our teeth.
For the week, we netted a positive .07 units on 1.5 units wagered (a 4.7% return), and for the season, we've profited a net 10.42 units on 52.5 units wagered (a 19.8% return).
This week at the Ford 400 on the Homestead-Miami Speedway,
take Jimmie Johnson (+525), 1/6th unit: I relent. As the Nextel Cup series heads to its final race, in Homestead, Florida, J.J. has pretty much locked up his second consecutive points championship. All he has to do is finish 18th or better, and there's nothing that Jeff Gordon (+400) can do to catch him. But Johnson doesn't seem satisfied with merely winning the points title...he seems to want to make history.
If he wins at the high-banked oval in Miami this Sunday, he'll set a NASCAR record by winning a fifth straight race, something that hasn't been done in the modern era (dating well back into the 1970s). The Homestead track bears some similarities to the recently resurfaced Las Vegas Motor Speedway; they each are banked 20 degrees in the turns, and while LVMS is a bit steeper-banked in the straightaways, there are enough setup similarities that I believe this year's LVMS results are relevant. Guess who won Vegas in March?
Take Matt Kenseth (+900), 1/6th unit: You have to love the way Kenseth has run over the last month. He finished fourth in Atlanta, second at Texas and third last week in Phoenix; finally, after a season of mediocrity, the No. 17 has it dialed in. It won't do him any good in terms of yielding him a second points title, but he could very well win this race. He was fourth at the reconfigured Vegas this spring, and has finished third and sixth at Homestead the last two seasons.
Take Greg Biffle (+1220), 1/6th unit: The Biff is the three-time defending champion in Cup races at Homestead, and these odds would indicate that the Wise Guys don't think he can make it four in a row. While I understand that logic (it's a task on which very few have delivered), recall that Biffle probably had the best car late in Phoenix last week, and has improved his fortunes over the last couple months (although you can't really count Biffle's Kansas win as a great run, considering it was such a mess because of weather and vanishing daylight).
Roush Racing may not have the same downforce advantages it's had in previous years, but you can't make the argument that Biffle doesn't know how to get around this joint.