[semibluff]

There has been a complete re-write of the 2021 regulations. The tyres are bigger, the cars are heavier, the rear wings are lower and less of a factor as 'ground effects' are the key factor for 2022. In short - it's all different, so ignore what happened in 2021.

As I see it for race 1 in Bahrain, (purely my opinion and includes expectations for Mercedes to improve in the next 5 days):
Race winner probability: Red Bull 42%; Ferrari 33%; Mercedes 23%, Field/other 14 cars 2%.
1st finisher per team probability: Verstappen 88% vs Perez 12%; Leclerc 62% vs Sainz 38%; Hamilton 82% vs Russell 18%.

Based on above - Bahrain winner true value odds:
Verstappen +171
Leclerc +389
Hamilton +430
Sainz +697
Perez +1880
Russell +2315
Field +4900

Again, this is how I see it and obviously actual book odds will be very different. This isn't likely to make anyone any money but it might help bettors to avoid a bad bet.

Background info:

The 3-day Barcelona test was behind closed doors. Very few people were allowed to see it. Anything I say about that test is 3rd party information. I have watched all of the Bahrain test, (as in at least 23 of the 24 hours), excluding Haas time.

Ferrari was the class of the field in Barcelona and that was true for the 1st 19 hours in Bahrain. The car is fast. The car handles well in both the easy high speed and the now much more difficult low speed corners. It is very reliable. After 19 hours it was the car everyone thought was the best car for next weekend. Then the 'real' Red Bull arrived.

Red Bull said in January that they would hide their developments and the car seen in testing wouldn't be the true car. In Barcelona it performed similarly to the Mercedes and behind the 2nd best car, (which was reported to be the McLaren). Similar story in Bahrain until they showed their developments. For the last 5 hours it outperformed the previously best Ferrari by between 0.2 and 0.5 seconds on a 93 second lap. They should be favourites for the 1st race.

The Mercedes has had multiple issues throughout testing. The porpoising issue created by ground effects is more pronounced on the Mercedes than on any car other than the Alpine. The Mercedes struggles with slow speed corners and it's not up with the leading 2 manufacturers on either of their limited qualifying or distance tests. It's not massively off the pace - but it's off. Everyone, (myself included), thinks Mercedes are sand-bagging to some extent. They didn't seem to be overly interested in either qualifying or distance runs. There were predominently running 5-10 lap runs testing parts and settings. However, Mercedes are already forewarning the media that they aren't sandbagging and that they don't expect to be competitive for at least a few weeks. I've heard this before so i'm dubious, but without upgrades this will be the 3rd best car next week and it'll be between 0.5 and 0.9 seconds off the Red Bull qualifying pace.

McLaren were supposedly the 2nd best team in Barcelona. They had the 4th quickest car in Bahrain and they had big problems with brakes overheating and parts rubbing together. The car projects to be about 1.0 to 1.4 seconds per lap slower than the Red Bull but they should be favourites to be the 1st retirement in the race. They could be very good later in the year, but I wouldn't bet them for top 10 finishes early doors. Ricciardo missed all of the Bahrain test with covid19 and could miss the race next weekend.

All of the remaining 6 teams are very close. If pressed i'd say Alpha Tauri, Alpine, and Aston Martin in a 3-way tie for 5th best. Alpha Tauri look to be most reliable and most consistent of the 3. Haas and Alfa Romeo are a close tie for 8th. Williams are most likely to be last but they're probably only 2.6 seconds behind Red Bull in qualifying pace. The bottom 6 teams are probably going to be track/conditions specific. A team could be a top10 finishing points scorer 1 week and worst car the next. All teams will score points.

Ferrari have the biggest side pods i've seen on an F1 car. Mercedes have the smallest side pods i've seen on an F1 car. The cars appear to have similar performance right now but 1 of these philosophies will end up being very wrong as the cars are developed. I wouldn't want to be betting a Mercedes or Ferrari driver for the Driver's Championship, or either team for the Constructor's Championship. I'm not brave enough to project futures odds for Red Bull or their drivers.

Good luck.

[dapperandy]

Love your info, semi