1. #1
    semibluff
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    F1 Preseason report 2021

    My opinion based on watching 3 days of testing:

    BET AGAINST HAMILTON.

    BET AGAINST MERCEDES.

    Prior to testing Hamilton was around -250 for the Driver's title and Mercedes were -400 for the Constructor's title. Neither should now be considered favourites.

    I know, preseason testing is unreliable, teams don't show their hand, and track conditions can favour certain teams or drivers. All that said - the Mercedes is slow! It's slow in qualifying conditions, it's slow in high fuel race simulations, the back of the car is unstable in all corner speeds, it's awful in wind, and everything looks even worse on the hard tires. Oh...and the engine and gearbox are unreliable.

    Mercedes might sort out a lot of the problems in a month or 2 but there looks to be too much to fix before the 1st race in Bahrain on March 28 2021. I don't expect the Mercedes to finish in the 1st 6 in that race. I'm not convinced they'll get both cars into Q3, (top 10), on Saturday qualifying.

    Right now the Red Bull is the quickest car. The Alpha Tauri and McLaren are about equal for 2nd. The Alpine, (formerly Renault) is close in 4th. Mercedes might be 5th...or anywhere. Frankly they could be 2nd or 7th by Race 1. Ferrari and Alfa Romeo are close for 6th, (about .7 of a second slower than the Red Bull PLUS Verstappen is a quicker driver). The Aston Martin, (formerly Racing Point and Force India) is 8th. The Williams is a creditable 9th because it's only about 1.4 seconds behind the Red Bull. The Haas is nowhere and isn't being developed. They will at the back every race and should be +650 to score a point. The only reason not to bet against them being last in the constructor's championship is that Williams will also struggle to score a point.

    The field is a lot closer together this year than it was last year. Verstappen is the fastest F1 driver and he's in the fastest car, (combined .25 to .3 seconds clear of Ricciardo in qualification), but I don't expect him to risk using slower tires in Q2. It's that tight for top 10 qualification.

    Verstappen obviously looks good for the Race 1 win and the F1 title. Red Bull should also be favourites for the Constructor's title. The only issue I have with the constructor's title is Race 2 in Italy could be shut down due to the current covid19 spike, which could also affect Race 3 in Portugal. That could give Mercedes time to recover. Even so you could reasonably expect to bet Red Bull now and hedge with Mercedes after race 1. I think Ricciardo for the title and McLaren for the Constructor's title are both worth small savers. I'll post what I think the true odds are later, (because I haven't formulated them myself yet).

    Anticipated Race 1 qualifying:
    1) Verstappen; 2) Ricciardo; 3) Perez; 4) Gasly; 5) Norris; 6) Alonso; 7) Tsunoda; 8) Hamilton; 9) Ocon; 10) Bottas; 11) Leclerc; 12) Sainz; 13-16) either of the Alfa Romeo/Vettel/Russell group; 17) Stroll; 18) Latifi; 19) Schumacher; 20) Mazepin.

    In the race i'd expect Perez to drop a place or 2, Tsunoda could make mistakes and lose places, and the Ferraris will struggle to stay top 12. I wouldn't bet on the Haas cars finishing, (2 rookies in underfunded cars) and i'd bet against all 4 of the Mercedes and Aston Martins making it to the finish. Obviously i'm not predicting ALL that. It's a broad overview.

    If nothing else stay away from Hamilton and Mercedes, at least for now.

    Good luck with whatever you bet.
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  2. #2
    Optional
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    I hope you are right about both Merc and Aston being as poor as testing made them look.

    And even more that it will be Dan Ric v Red Bulls for podium to start with.

    I thought Alonso looked like he had never been away and is going to be fun to watch. Just hope that Alpine team name change does not just mean Renault doesn't want their own name on that team and it will be under funded.

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  3. #3
    Optional
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    Has Vettel just totally lost it?

    Is Stroll going to beat him?

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  4. #4
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    Vettel will beat Stroll. For my money Vettel isn't as good as Perez, whom he replaces. I have Vettel fighting with the 2 Ferraris, 2 Alfa Romeos and occasionally Russell for 11th to 16th. Vettel and the Aston Martin team have the same problem as the Mercedes. The aero/downforce regulations for 2021 hurt the 2 cars with the low rake concept. Those 2 cars are based on the 2020 Mercedes. Both cars have lost about 0.6 seconds to the rest of the field. The Mercedes gearbox and engine doesn't like the new configuration. The cars are unstable and unpredictable. A poor car that is consistent can at least be driven to 100% of it's, (low), potential. A car that will take a corner at 1 speed on 1 lap but will spin out at the same speed on another lap is almost impossible to master. The Red Bull was similar last year. It was quick but the drivers couldn't get the best out of it. It took half a season to correct the instability. The 2021 Mercedes looks a bigger problem. It could be a quick easy fix...or it may never be fixed. Even if fixed and made faster those 2 brands will still be behind the Red Bulls and in a multi-way competition for 3rd to 14th. For context with low fuel and the softest tires for best grip, (IE best possible situation), the Mercedes was still a full second behind Verstappen.

  5. #5
    kjack25
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    Took Max and Ricciardo for the win. Thanks for the info Semibluff.

  6. #6
    dapperandy
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    What odds are you guys getting on VER and RIC for Bahrain?

  7. #7
    unlearn
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    Quote Originally Posted by dapperandy View Post
    What odds are you guys getting on VER and RIC for Bahrain?
    Max is +165 and Dan is +2500 currently at Bovada
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  8. #8
    semibluff
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    sportsinteraction.com still have Verstappen at +500 for the F1 Driver's title. I wonder whether they would pay out at those odds in 9 months time? Most books are +300 to +350, which is still a huge price after preseason. +500 didn't look unreasonable a week ago but it's clearly wrong now.

    They also have Alpha Tauri at +50000 for the Constructor's title when it should be around +6000, but many books are laying this price.
    Last edited by semibluff; 03-16-21 at 12:55 PM.

  9. #9
    dapperandy
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    Did you bet AlphaTauri 500-1?

  10. #10
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by semibluff View Post
    sportsinteraction.com still have Verstappen at +500 for the F1 Driver's title. I wonder whether they would pay out at those odds in 9 months time? Most books are +300 to +350, which is still a huge price after preseason. +500 didn't look unreasonable a week ago but it's clearly wrong now.

    They also have Alpha Tauri at +50000 for the Constructor's title when it should be around +6000, but many books are laying this price.
    As they say every year, "it's only testing" <--- and it was only 3 days.

    I don't believe Mercedes is suddenly a ruin in almost the same cars as last year. They will develop and adjust and be on the front almost every race same as usual. I doubt it will even take them 3 races to have sorted out the rear instability issue.

    Whether the public is betting Max for title at +350 or not, +500 feels more realistic to me still.

    Anyway good luck with it. Would like to see Max do it for you.
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  11. #11
    semibluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by dapperandy View Post
    Did you bet AlphaTauri 500-1?
    Fair question.

    I haven't.

    I closed my b365 account months ago. I'm not going to open an account with either of the 2 other UK books posting those odds because it's not worth the KYC hassle for a £5 bet. My 4 local shops have smaller odds and I hate taking a fraction of the value. I have bet Verstappen and Ricciardo for the Driver's title. I have bet on Red Bull for the Constructor's title. None of my bets now are of significant size because the pandemic has financially crippled me. Alpha Tauri is an air bet. If that puts you off so be it. I am simply posting what I believe to be value. I'm certainly not advocating putting a large sum of money on Alpha Tauri. Even if I had the finances UK betting limits on F1 are low. It's not worth travelling around to get £50 or £100 at +50000.
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  12. #12
    dapperandy
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    Quote Originally Posted by semibluff View Post
    Fair question.

    I haven't.

    I closed my b365 account months ago. I'm not going to open an account with either of the 2 other UK books posting those odds because it's not worth the KYC hassle for a £5 bet. My 4 local shops have smaller odds and I hate taking a fraction of the value. I have bet Verstappen and Ricciardo for the Driver's title. I have bet on Red Bull for the Constructor's title. None of my bets now are of significant size because the pandemic has financially crippled me. Alpha Tauri is an air bet. If that puts you off so be it. I am simply posting what I believe to be value. I'm certainly not advocating putting a large sum of money on Alpha Tauri. Even if I had the finances UK betting limits on F1 are low. It's not worth travelling around to get £50 or £100 at +50000.
    I really appreciate your insight, I bet RIC for Bahrain and put a little on AlphaTauri 500-1, if you think they should be 60-1 I love that, of course Iím not expecting anything of it, just really appreciate your insight

  13. #13
    dapperandy
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    Quote Originally Posted by semibluff View Post
    Fair question.

    I haven't.

    I closed my b365 account months ago. I'm not going to open an account with either of the 2 other UK books posting those odds because it's not worth the KYC hassle for a £5 bet. My 4 local shops have smaller odds and I hate taking a fraction of the value. I have bet Verstappen and Ricciardo for the Driver's title. I have bet on Red Bull for the Constructor's title. None of my bets now are of significant size because the pandemic has financially crippled me. Alpha Tauri is an air bet. If that puts you off so be it. I am simply posting what I believe to be value. I'm certainly not advocating putting a large sum of money on Alpha Tauri. Even if I had the finances UK betting limits on F1 are low. It's not worth travelling around to get £50 or £100 at +50000.
    semibluff, Bovada has Haas not to score a point this season at +165. Is that amazing odds in your estimation? Would you max it if you could?

  14. #14
    dapperandy
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    Also, Iím really sorry the pandemic has hit you so hard 😢

  15. #15
    semibluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by dapperandy View Post
    semibluff, Bovada has Haas not to score a point this season at +165. Is that amazing odds in your estimation? Would you max it if you could?
    I would absolutely max bet it if I could. Haas is in really bad shape for 2021. If the rules were going to be extended they would have stayed with their 2 veterans. They've taken on 2 rookies because they want to bed them in for 2022. Not only is the Haas about 1 second slower than the Williams they've said they won't develop the car at all in 2021. All the resources are being pushed towards 2022. 2021 is going to be a difficult developmental year for most teams because the rules for 2022 are so different. The 2021 cars will effectively be scraped. Teams that start slowly will probably shrug their shoulders and switch development to 2022, (which is partly why i'm so down on Mercedes. The drivers are good and their engine is fine but everything else is wrong). I have Haas about -650 to NOT score a point. Max bet it.
    Last edited by semibluff; 03-22-21 at 04:19 PM.
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  16. #16
    dapperandy
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    Thanks so much for the info. It is very much appreciated.

    Will anyone be starting race week threads for F1? I see Bovada has all the odds out now. Iím looking forward to it.

  17. #17
    unlearn
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    Quote Originally Posted by dapperandy View Post
    Thanks so much for the info. It is very much appreciated.

    Will anyone be starting race week threads for F1? I see Bovada has all the odds out now. I’m looking forward to it.
    We usually just use the nascar thread but I wouldnt be against a thread for every F1 race
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  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by unlearn View Post
    We usually just use the nascar thread but I wouldnt be against a thread for every F1 race
    The problem is that the betting margins are so large that it's very difficult to find any real value. Generally Race Win betting is done to 119% on the top 5 so when you factor in the freak result percentages you're looking at 130%+. Head-to-head betting is generally -120 on each side so that's tough to find an edge with. I don't have a handle on fast laps and practice sessions so I sit that out. The smallest margins are Points Finish bets where the total book is about 1080% and books pay out 1000%. Errors can be found there. However, this year there looks to be potentially 16 cars that can score points on any given Sunday. The top 16 look to be a lot tighter than last year. Getting through P2 qualifying on 'race' tyres is going to be tough for anyone other than Verstappen.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by dapperandy View Post
    Thanks so much for the info. It is very much appreciated.

    Will anyone be starting race week threads for F1? I see Bovada has all the odds out now. I’m looking forward to it.
    1 thing I haven't factored in are the 3 proposed reverse-grid 'Sprint Races'. I hold my hand up and apologise for that. Haas are still a max bet unless they hold the sprints at Singapore or Imola. F1 hasn't finalised the details of venues or scoring for these. The original sprint-race plan was points for top 3 places only, (which even with a front row lockout Haas wouldn't hold).

  20. #20
    unlearn
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    Most of my wagering is done on qualifying and race h2hs. I do have some Max +165 for Bahrain and will likely add him to win the pole at +130
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  21. #21
    unlearn
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    Haas will always have a special place in our hearts for that 1000/1 fastest lap we hit on Magnussen at Singapore a few years back.
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  22. #22
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    Iíve got Max and Ricciardo bet to win this weekend. I saw Ricciardo is +400 to finish top 3, any value there? Iíll wait to see opti and learnerís picks for practice and qualifying. I noticed that Bovada expanded their bet options this year, they didnít have practice last year.

  23. #23
    unlearn
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    Quote Originally Posted by kjack25 View Post
    I’ve got Max and Ricciardo bet to win this weekend. I saw Ricciardo is +400 to finish top 3, any value there? I’ll wait to see opti and learner’s picks for practice and qualifying. I noticed that Bovada expanded their bet options this year, they didn’t have practice last year.
    They had practice last year. That's where I bet f1
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  24. #24
    kjack25
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    Quote Originally Posted by unlearn View Post
    They had practice last year. That's where I bet f1
    Guess I didnít look hard enough. Iím on it now.

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by kjack25 View Post
    I’ve got Max and Ricciardo bet to win this weekend. I saw Ricciardo is +400 to finish top 3, any value there? I’ll wait to see opti and learner’s picks for practice and qualifying. I noticed that Bovada expanded their bet options this year, they didn’t have practice last year.
    I see Verstappen being the fastest driver and having the fastest car. I think there are 6 cars that can, (on pace), compete for 2nd and for me Ricciardo is the strongest driver/car combination of those 6. If in doubt my main advice from Post #1 is bet against Mercedes. I don't see them being in contention for a top 6 finish.

  26. #26
    unlearn
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    I like Max to win pole, race, and fastest lap. I think the treble is +450 @ Bovada. Anybody see a better # out there?
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  27. #27
    Optional
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    I took Dan Ricciardo Top 3 in Qualifying +300

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  28. #28
    semibluff
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    Apologies to all. I expected Mercedes to be a further 0.6 seconds off the pace. I still think the soft tires and low fuel are making them look better than they are.

  29. #29
    unlearn
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    So Lewis still wins every race and Max is still a choker. Got it. Nothing has changed from last year
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  30. #30
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    Sucky start to year.

    Of course Merc got it together

    Crazy Max did not hot foot to get the 5 secs in front of Lewis instead of giving the lead back. I hope Red Bull shamed whoever made that call.
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  31. #31
    ARCHIVADO98
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    Back perez or Verstappen today?
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