[semibluff]

Last week I was surprised by books overreaction against the Red Bulls at this track on their opening lines. Ricciardo was available at +1000 and Verstappen was available at +1200 with 2 books. Obviously this is a power circuit that has a history of benefiting Mercedes and Ferrari, but Red Bull had good top end speed in Azerbiajan and that was before the engine upgrade. They're the outsiders of the big 3 teams but those prices looked like an overreaction. However, there always had to be a doubt over Ricciardo's car after Monaco and car designer Adrian Newey sid during this week he might have to take substantial grid penalties. I don't believe this circuit is a problem for Verstappen, even with his recent DNF history.

Post Practice 1 and Practice 2: Mercedes and Ferrari turned their engines down so Verstappen was quickest. Ricciardo had car gremlins and we don't know for sure if he can compete without taking penalties. Hamilton looked very, very good, (well ahead of Bottas). I Like those 2 for both pole and the race win. Hamilton is +120 for the win and Verstappen is +650. Those odds are fair without being 'rush out to grab it'. What is rush out to grab it is William Hill offering -300 about Verstappen finishing in the top 10. Other books are -400 and -350 so I don't see any 'bad line' argument. He's still good value at -350 and -400 probably has a small edge. Books are way too short on Hamilton, Vettel, and the 2 Renaults for top 10 finish betting. The 2 Renaults look like bricks on ice. The 2 Williams look like bricks on ice towing bricks. Stay away from all 4. Gasly has looked all at sea at this track. If you can get a match bet against a non-Renault-non-Williams then bet against him.

If you bet pole position stay away from Räikkönen. He finishes qualifying laps by swerving diagonally across track to take the racing line rather than following the shortest distance to the line. It costs about a tenth of a second. This has screwed him out of key positions twice in recent years, (missed top 10 shoot-out in 2012 and also cost him 3rd place on the grid last year). Heartache waiting to happen. Co-incidentally in practice Verstappen took a really tight line through the dirt looking for every thousandth on this. (He's on the ball!).

Grosjean, (yes him), and the 2 Force Indias have looked pretty decent in practice. At -125 and -150 they're fair value for top 10 finishes. If you see a match bet for any of them against a Renault then grab it! Good luck and enjoy 1 of the best F1 tracks this weekend.

[5mike5]

GL Semi

Hams +135 for win so far...may add a FL or 2 for other action on raceday

[Optional]

Max has shown great pace, and if red bull have the same tyre wear advantage as last race he could be a serious threat. I've gone early and bigger than usual on Lewis though.

I think Ferrari are out of calculations for the race due to the way they were eating the Hyper Softs on Friday, but kind of like one or both of them to qualify front row though. Their 1 lap pace + upgraded engine + quali mode make them slight faves for pole right now I think.

Not sure Kimi has any issue setting fast lap on the track as you think though.

He's the only current driver to have set multiple fastest laps here in the last 10 years. Loving the +1200 even more with them having tire issues too. Kimi's mindset goes to fast lap when he cant win/podium.

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Congrats to anyone who took Vettel for pole. Bottas was a big surprise with how close he got to it. Verstappen looked as good as you can get without taking a front row finish. He's -500 for a top 10 finish so that value has gone. Commiserations to anyone who backed Grosjean for a top 10 finish. I've never seen a car blow an engine coming out of the garage before. The Force Indias were very good. The Renaults were quick but I don't think the handling will be there for a whole race. Gasly was terrible, along with the Williams' cars.

Canada is traditionally a high tyre wear and brake issue track. Teams that make 2 scheduled pit stops normally have a big advantage in the race. The Ferrari and Mercedes cars 'look' to be set up to try 1 stop strategies. They start on the middle compound purple Ultra-Soft types. I'm not convinced that's a good race tyre here. The Red Bull cars will start on the fasted pink Hyper-Soft tyres and will hopefully plan on a 2 stop strategy.

Riccardo is a surprisingly large price for a top 10 finish. I don't know if there are still problems with the car. It might be worth waiting until 30 minutes before the race on Sunday and then grabbing any -350 or better if available providing the car is still starting 6th and Red Bull have given it a clean bill of health. (Ricciardo is currently a best priced -225 for a top 10 finish...which looks too good to be true).

[Optional]

Tires are definitely the wild card.

Last 3 years it has been a 1 stop strategy to win. Only team that even tried 2 stops last year was Ferrari and it was a major fail for them.

I hope Merc has gone the right way committing themselves to a one stop strat.

Still feel good about Merc having race pace to beat them but think Max is looking like a great chance for you too.


I suspect one reason why top 10 bets appear to be value for these guys each week is that they either finish top 6 or not at all most races. The only times the top 6 drivers have finished 7th-10th in the first 6 races has been;

AUS, Bottas 7th
BAH, -
CHI, Vettel 8th
AZE. -
BAR, -
MON, Versttapen 9th

3 times out of 36 chances.

Top 10 is just a bad a value bet to take big juice on top guys on. Top 6 or nothing with them IMHO.

[unlearn]

Bottas +600
Lewis +450

Hoping you're right. Been getting slaughtered on racing since winning Indy 500 and F1 the same day

[Optional]

Bottas +600
Lewis +450

Hoping you're right. Been getting slaughtered on racing since winning Indy 500 and F1 the same day

I don't know if I am game to add more on Lewis, even though I think the +450 is awesome value. Already have more on him than I am usually comfortable betting.

Up until quali Bottas appeared to be markedly slower than Lewis in practice runs. And was 20 secs behind over race distance last year. I'm more concerned about the Red Bulls than Bottas or Ferrari personally. I may be wrong, but think Ferrari is going to have the same tire troubles as they did both last race in Monaco, and last year here, when they were the only ones forced to stop twice.

[unlearn]

So I should add Max at +600?

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So I should add Max at +600?

I think +640 is about the break-even point. Some books were +650 last night and 1 or 2 books had him at +700. All of that has gone overnight. There are 2 Euro books offering +600 but most are offering +500 or +550. The win market is where there is most juice. The top 3 market has less juice. The top 6 market has even less juice. The points finish/top 10 market has least juice. Verstappen will provide entertainment at +600 for the win. If you want to make money I think Ricciardo at -225 or -250 is +ev...with the proviso he isn't taking penalties and the team are happy with the reliability. We'll know that in less than an hour.

[PhoKing]

I think +640 is about the break-even point. Some books were +650 last night and 1 or 2 books had him at +700. All of that has gone overnight. There are 2 Euro books offering +600 but most are offering +500 or +550. The win market is where there is most juice. The top 3 market has less juice. The top 6 market has even less juice. The points finish/top 10 market has least juice. Verstappen will provide entertainment at +600 for the win. If you want to make money I think Ricciardo at -225 or -250 is +ev...with the proviso he isn't taking penalties and the team are happy with the reliability. We'll know that in less than an hour.

got any favorite h2h matchups?

[unlearn]

I'm just sticking with my 2 Merc bets and hoping Mad Max wrecks out as usual

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got any favorite h2h matchups?

If you can get a Force India against anything outside the top 6 you're in good shape. The Renault were quick in qualifying but they haven't handled well other than that. I think they'll have tyre and brake problems. Grosjean was surprisingly good on Friday but he'll start last on a questionable engine. If you can get +115 to beat his teammate, (Magnussen, who hasn't impressed), it's decent value. Anyone other than a Williams to beat Gasly is a sound bet. I still believe Ricciardo at -225 for top 10 is the best bet. (For reference Hulkenberg is -400 and Ocon is -350). I just hope this doesn't bite me on the ass.

[PhoKing]

If you can get a Force India against anything outside the top 6 you're in good shape. The Renault were quick in qualifying but they haven't handled well other than that. I think they'll have tyre and brake problems. Grosjean was surprisingly good on Friday but he'll start last on a questionable engine. If you can get +115 to beat his teammate, (Magnussen, who hasn't impressed), it's decent value. Anyone other than a Williams to beat Gasly is a sound bet. I still believe Ricciardo at -225 for top 10 is the best bet. (For reference Hulkenberg is -400 and Ocon is -350). I just hope this doesn't bite me on the ass.

thank you good luck to you. what book do you use for f1? my book only matches up against teammates only or top 6 against each other

[PhoKing]

unlucky for hartley. the only person i can fade against gasly was hartley and he gets walled up by a canadian driver

[unlearn]

Vettel gonna win by 9 minutes at this rate

[unlearn]

Hamilton is trash and has 0 chance. Race is between Vettel and Red Bull

[the1yankee]

If you can get a Force India against anything outside the top 6 you're in good shape. The Renault were quick in qualifying but they haven't handled well other than that. I think they'll have tyre and brake problems. Grosjean was surprisingly good on Friday but he'll start last on a questionable engine. If you can get +115 to beat his teammate, (Magnussen, who hasn't impressed), it's decent value. Anyone other than a Williams to beat Gasly is a sound bet. I still believe Ricciardo at -225 for top 10 is the best bet. (For reference Hulkenberg is -400 and Ocon is -350). I just hope this doesn't bite me on the ass.

YOU FORGOT TO METION.......

ANYBODY OTHER THAH A WILLIAMS.........

OR A MUTHAFUKING POS FUKIN BRANDON HARTLEY!!!!!

FUKING CHRIST MAN

LOVE LOSING WAGERS IN THE FIRST 2 goddamn seconds of an event


FUKING LOVE IT A LOT.

GOOD CALL ON H2H!!

DEFINITELY NO MIKE5

Far from it!!I

Oh well!

Tail n get it lopped off


F1 puts on a boring ass racing even

No business betting F1 anyways

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My best bets win by a mile and I still end up down.
Being fair I didn't expect Verstappen to win before Friday. I just thought he was +ev at that price over the long haul.

What I take from this is if you can't overtake at Canada then you can't overtake anywhere. Heck, Ocon couldn't overtake Grosjean despite fresh tyres and 3 drag reduction zones . 2 stops would clearly have been quicker today, (assuming anyone had fresh tyres available), but having track position even if it was for a slower overall race time was the be-all-and-end-all. Congrats to Vettel. Congrats to Renault, although boo for nerfing Perez and costing him a top 10 finish. Grosjean ran a great race but no cigar for a top 10, (and behind Gasly to boot).

1 rant to finish with, (as I have nowhere else to rant): What the heck were tv crew looking at in the last 4 laps? Bottas vs Verstappen was clearly the battle but I didn't get to see a single second of it.

[the1yankee]

I know guy, I sincerely apologize.

I hate when yur down 8-0 in the 1st in mlb, or crash on 1st half of lap.

Not yur fault. Was outta line.

Sorry guy

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I know guy, I sincerely apologize.

I hate when yur down 8-0 in the 1st in mlb, or crash on 1st half of lap.

Not yur fault. Was outta line.

Sorry guy

No worries on my account. If you post online you have to be prepared to take both barrels when you're wrong...and I seem to have had more wrong than right F1-wise this year. Whilst I liked Grosjean's chances of beating Magnussen I would also have taken Magnussen to beat Gasly...and that didn't happen. I didn't like Renault but they took #7 and #8 as best of the rest. I thought teams would 2 stop rather than crawl round 2-3 seconds a lap slower in the last 15 laps. Given the time differences between the top 6 I understood the track position argument, but there were plenty of cars that could have taken that option and didn't. All that said barring a DNF Hartley would have beaten Gasly today.

[Optional]

Race kinda sucked. Gambling result definitely sucked. A bit of a confidence shaker having Lewis and Vettel reads so wrong too.