[5mike5]

Alright fellas the "Big American Race" is finally almost here to kick off the start of the 2018 NASCAR season! Been a long (not really) off season and hope to have another great season! Qualifying for the 500 is different from all other races for those that may be new to gambling on NASCAR...it will be held this Sunday (week early) right before the Clash race begins, but in reality this is only for the 1st and 2nd starting positions...all other spots will be determined from the results of the 2 Duel races which will be held next Thursday night..

The Truck series race will be on Friday night the 16th on FS1, and the Xfinity series will be on Saturday Afternoon the 17th...For anybody that isnt firmiliar with my style, i play weekly open parlays from the truck/Xfinity series (wins and H2Hs)to use with a cup play on the winner(s) which has always been a great tool imo, but not for everybody..

There were a lot of off season changes this year, from several diff drivers in new and different places, to changes in the Chevy body style..tons of questions as with every season with how the teams and maufacturers will jump out of the gate..so again, for anybody who doesn't wager on race often, the first 3-4 races of the season are always tricky...and of course, pretty much anybody can win the 2 restrictor plate racetracks of Daytona and Talladega, so hold on to your seat-belts and if not very experienced in wagering on this sport, I would tread very lightly since alot of the regular handicapping methods u can throw right out the window..

Daytona International Speedway is a 2.5 tri-oval super-speedway with banking of 31 degrees in all the turns, 18 degrees in the tri-oval, and a really flat 2 degrees on the straights..


Everybody's opinions, thoughts, and picks are always welcome as this weekly thread is for everybody to participate in the discussion..The Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup race plays will all be kept in the same thread each week..i keep these threads in the NASCAR sub-forum only for obvious reasons...


Here's to having another GREAT season!!!!! GOODLUCK!!

[5mike5]

BLANEY (+2750)


**early play from december...haven't added anything else just yet, but will post when i do for all series..

[5mike5]

BLANEY (+2750)

added:

Chase Elliot (+1350)

[DiggityDaggityDo]

added:

Chase Elliot (+1350)

In!!!

CHASE ELLIOTT +1205

Already tailed Blaney in the other thread.

Thanks Mike!

[5mike5]

probably be early next week before i take anything else to win the race...i really dont love taking matchups early in the year, but may look at a few just in case

[DiggityDaggityDo]

I will have to get creative throughout the season since I probably wont be able to do the open h2h parlays or open race winner parlays.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

So awesome 5Mike5 is back

What books are you loaded up at Mike?

[5mike5]

So awesome 5Mike5 is back

What books are you loaded up at Mike?

mostly 5D and BOL

[Heltah Skeltah]

Do you put the same amount of money on all the guys you take or you pick which ones you like more and add. Sorry if that's a stupid question. Looking forward to seeing your plays

[DiggityDaggityDo]

mostly 5D and BOL

How is BOL?

I have never played there.

[Auto Donk]

Summon Donk Diggler for Daytona action.....

[Optional]

Ok, I am not missing out this year by not tailing your early bets again!


Blaney +2500
Elliot +1200

and Erik Jones +2000

[Optional]

Anyone read much about Alex Bowman?

Is he using Juniors old crew and shop?

I like him in general from his races in 2016 and you'd think that team will still know how to make a car win poles here...

+2500 feels better than true odds if that is the case.

[Optional]

If Fords look ok in the clash and duels, I expect I will just bet Ford at hopefully better than +200 to cover Bradk/Logano/Harvick/Kurt/bowyer/Stenhouse/Bayne/Bubba and then hope Blaney wins it so both cash.

Last year books over valued Ford week after week. Hope they start same way here.

[Optional]

Ugh.

Greek has Chevy +125 Ford +150 Toyota +300

See how it moves this week.

[5mike5]

Do you put the same amount of money on all the guys you take or you pick which ones you like more and add. Sorry if that's a stupid question. Looking forward to seeing your plays

it just depends on the driver's odds if i am taking them early, line moves throughout the week, and depending on how many drivers i end up with overall and how much overall risk on raceday morning to win the race.....

[5mike5]

How is BOL?

I have never played there.

for NASCAR is vanilla offerings wise, but found that they had a little better prices on matchups than dimes alot of the time so thats all i mainly focused on there...once in a while I found better odds on race winners after dimes market was bet down, because they are slow to move their lines

payouts were easy as it gets, not 1 bit of hassle and always paid asap

[5mike5]

Ugh.

Greek has Chevy +125 Ford +150 Toyota +300

See how it moves this week.

ekkk

the way ford has just been dominated @ plate races lately, not that surprised i guess, more surprised that Chevy is the early +125 there...thats seems low

[5mike5]

dominate, not dominated LOL ^^^^^^^^^^


not being able to edit my own posts is just a nightmare

[5mike5]

Anyone read much about Alex Bowman?

Is he using Juniors old crew and shop?

I like him in general from his races in 2016 and you'd think that team will still know how to make a car win poles here...

+2500 feels better than true odds if that is the case.

yes he basically just took over and things stayed close to the same around the team...

I just don't know what to make of the guy..not sure why but i am having a hard time believing in him...he looked way better than expected filling in for Jr in '16 of course almost winning Phoenix...must be his personality or something or maybe because he didn't dominate Xfinity

[Optional]

Thanks Mike.

Think I'll add him at some stage

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Question for you seasoned motorsport bettors, what are some of approaches/strategies that you use to scale your bet sizes on these futures? (just in a general sense).

[Optional]

Question for you seasoned motorsport bettors, what are some of approaches/strategies that you use to scale your bet sizes on these futures? (just in a general sense).

I start out knowing I want to risk around 5 units per race.

I tended to bet late last year, so it is easy to work out what to bet on who.

But if you bet openers, and rebet the changes over the week like Mike does, it's a juggling act to make sure you stay within the limit and balance everything for the best profit.

One thing that can help you when starting is to test your potential picks in a dutching calculator. It will let you input the odds of all the drivers you like, your overall risk amount, and then tells you how much to bet on each one to secure the same profit no matter which of them wins. That will give you a good starting point guide of how much to bet as you go.

Personally, I try to achieve +200 across the roster as a rule of thumb. So am basically trying to bet each driver to return 15 units inc stake, if that is possible. It will be toughest at Daytona with so many lower odds drivers. I often don't get to +200 btw. Thats just my target.

I dont always bet them even like that, weighting more to the driver I like best usually. But it's good to know how it dutchs out to know the 'true' odds you are giving yourself with that roster.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

A dutching calculator!

Who fukkin knew???

[Optional]

A dutching calculator!

Who fukkin knew???

I mention it regularly. Nice to see someone who gets it ;-)

[Optional]

Also, if you are thinking of taking multi-driver, team or Manufacturer props that calculator is a good way to test if you should be taking the prop odds or betting(dutching) each driver individually. Odds wise.


If you see Harvick/Johnson/Busch +150 as a prop, you will often find dutching them will give you +175 to +200. But sometimes the reverse too.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Thanks, optional

[5mike5]

also new rule:

changing primary engine for the 500 it.now means u also will be starting in the rear at Atlanta thr week after. and the 500 of course

[Optional]

also new rule:

changing primary engine for the 500 it.now means u also will be starting in the rear at Atlanta thr week after. and the 500 of course

Why did they do this?

[5mike5]

Why did they do this?

honestly.not sure opti. just happened to see something on Jayski twitter the other day

[5mike5]

qualifying for front row tomorrow on FOX then the clash on fs1

[firedawg]

some guys with past speed
Blaney
Newman
Bayne
Ragan

have not kept up on their rides this year. all the same?

[5mike5]

bowman in 88
byron in 24
elliott in 9
amirola in 10
E.Jones in 20
bubba wallace in the 43

[5mike5]

kahne in the 95 shit car now

i think thats about it

[firedawg]

Jones will break out at some point
I can see Elliot grabbing a few this year