[bigboydan]

NASCAR: Subway Fresh Fit 500

Game Time: 4/21/2007 8:45:00 PM

NASCAR
Jeff Gordon

By: Brian Gabrielle

http://www.bgsports.com

The Smokeless Set runs under the lights tonight at Phoenix International Raceway, with Jeff Gordon and Dale Earhardt Jr. a couple of drivers to watch.

Saturday night under the lights, the Car of Tomorrow gets its first shot at a track longer than a half-mile.

However, the one-mile Phoenix International Raceway is so shallowly banked -- 11 and nine degrees in the turns -- that it drives like a smaller track than it is. In fact, the heavy-braking, flat track is an awful lot like Martinsville, where the Smokeless Set ran just a few weeks ago in these very same CoTs. How very convenient.

Who's been strongest in the CoT so far? Well, the temptation is to say Hendrick Motorsports. Kyle Busch won at Bristol, and Jimmie Johnson won at Martinsville, with Jeff Gordon hot on his tail. But those results don't tell the whole story.

Tony Stewart easily had the best car at Bristol, and only a fluky mechanical problem that had nothing to do with the CoT itself caused him to lose. At Martinsville, Dale Earnhardt Jr. led the most laps and Stewart's teammate, Denny Hamlin, led the second-most. If you ask me, the best CoT team so far has been Joe Gibbs Racing. They clearly invested a lot of dough in these puppies, and it's showing. We'll see if that trend continues Saturday night.

Last Week: It was a frustrating day deep in the heart of Texas, as our two primary picks, Johnson and Stewart, suffered wrecks at the hands of other, less speedy drivers. Jeff Burton won the event and looked great doing it; he's going to be a threat at a whole lot of races this summer. Anyway, it was a lost day, which means 1.5 units down the tubes. Fortunately, we're still up 1.87 units on the season, on 10.5 units wagered, for a 17.8% return. (If you scrap the conservative betting system outlined below and simply bet one unit per wager, you'd be up 16.67 units so far this year on 28 units wagered, for a 59.5% return. Of course, there's a lot more risk on a weekly basis with that system; for instance, you'd have dropped four units last week.)

This week at the Subway Fresh Fit 500, take Jeff Gordon (+385), 1/6th unit: Gordon has never won at Phoenix, one of just three current Nextel Cup venues where he hasn't taken the checkers. Also, this race has never been won from the pole, and Gordon won the pole Friday afternoon. Still, he's a tough guy to ignore in this spot. As I mentioned above, Gordon was coming fast after Jimmie Johnson (+625) at Martinsville, and almost certainly would've won the race if Johnson wasn't his teammate; he didn't want to wreck the #48, so he had to console himself with second place. Gordon still leads in points, and has won four poles already this year, but hasn't won a race. I think that changes Saturday night.

Take Denny Hamlin (+950), 1/6th unit: Hamlin could've easily won both of the first two CoT events, and he qualified third for Phoenix. He was quoted telling reporters that racing at this flat one-miler reminds him of the late-model races he grew up on, and that running under the lights on Saturday will cinch the deal, and take him right back to the minor-league series where he made his bones. Phoenix events have been won from the third starting position on three occasions, which probably doesn't mean much to any but the numerologists among you, but still. The Gibbs CoT program is strong, Hamlin finished third here last fall, and he's due for a win.

Take Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+815), 1/6th unit: Lost amid the excitement of Burton (+1145) winning his late-race duel with Matt Kenseth (+1250) is the fact that Junior got royally screwed in the Texas event last week. He led the most laps, and obviously had the best car, but got wrecked by Stewart (+745) when Smoke probably shouldn't have even been on the racetrack. The racing gods haven't been kind to Little-E of late, but that could change Saturday night. He's won twice at this place, and ran really well for a time at Martinsville. Look for the #8 to excite some red-clad fans.

[scoob40]

Took the 48 at 6-1 at SIA. Seems good value for a Hendricks car. Their team is really on a roll these days. When I looked they were 4-1 over at Cris.

[zootiehead]

I love Jr in a prime time event like this.

[onlooker]

This is my Fantasy Five:

#24 Jeff Gordon
#8  Dale Earnhardt Jr.
#9  Kasey Kahne
#01 Mark Martin
#38 David Gilliland

[onlooker]

Just remember this Race is tonight, not Sunday.

Good luck with your racing bets.

[onlooker]

Danny Hamlin was leading the race and looked to have a good shot to win, but got a penalty when he was going to fast on pit road. Made him restart 31st.

He is currently 9th with 55 laps to go.

+950 down the drain to anyone that took it, because of speeding on pit road.

[onlooker]

Jeff Gordon wins his first race at Phoenix.

Then salutes Dale Earnhardt by doing his victory lap with a #3 flag, because he tied Dale in wins with 76.

I don't really like Gordon, but that was cool what he did.

[gummo]

Danny Hamlin was leading the race and looked to have a good shot to win, but got a penalty when he was going to fast on pit road. Made him restart 31st.

He is currently 9th with 55 laps to go.

+950 down the drain to anyone that took it, because of speeding on pit road.

Hamlin definitely would have won if he hadn't made that stupid mistake. Fortunately I only had him in a prop to finish top 5.