1. 03-01-12 02:29 PM #71
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by ebbearsfb1 View Post
    If you like head to head matchups... newman minus 105 vs. Kasey kahne good value on newman there also... few things its newmans best track... kahnes 16th best track.... kahne did win here last year so he may get overvalued a bit also... like newman there
    i never bet just H2H match-ups by themselves..personally dont see much value in betting them individually over the long-term....usually i just bet 1, 3-matchup parlay per race to keep it interesting...and usually take underdogs in the H2H matchups as well..

    also keep in mind this track was totally re-configured after spring race last year, so really only been 1 race on new track...for me that brings down "drivers best track" stats when comparing 1 to another as fall race of last year really only thing u can go off....since the track is different past stats just dont mean "as" much to me here now

    i still use it as a small factor, just not like i usually would...thats why i think the sessions are really important tomorrow...think they will tell alot of whats going to happen and who brought the right stuff...but just like any other factor, its not the only thing to look at
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-01-12 at 02:36 PM.
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  2. 03-01-12 04:28 PM #72
    Optional
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    I can't recall the Fall race for the life of me.

    Did the track drive much differently to the previous config?

    Was there two grooves like they were hoping?

    Was passing easier than before?
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  3. 03-01-12 04:54 PM #73
    JackalLion
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    Nice stuff Mike. Everything I've read from you so far is spot on. I've been betting NASCAR as a supplement for the last few years. I'm not much for parlays on the MU but if it's working for you that's great.

    Do you know of any paid handicappers for NASCAR with good track records?

    Thanks,

    Jackal
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  4. 03-01-12 05:06 PM #74
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by JackalLion View Post
    Nice stuff Mike. Everything I've read from you so far is spot on. I've been betting NASCAR as a supplement for the last few years. I'm not much for parlays on the MU but if it's working for you that's great.

    Do you know of any paid handicappers for NASCAR with good track records?

    Thanks,

    Jackal
    I dont bet MU parlays seriously, just 1 per race for entertainment honestly....and i usually bet the underdog side of it...i just got lucky and hit the daytona 3 teamer...usually dont win those and don put any effort or research in them either...i dont beliebe betting match-ups in nascar can payoff in the long-term so dont blame ya there....

    i honestly have no idea about hanicappers for nascar...ive never even looked to see if their are any...i kinda win/lose on my own stuff so i can blame myself when i come up empty...the OPs on this forum that are regulars know their shit though, so they are only opinions i really take into comsideration...
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-01-12 at 05:45 PM.
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  5. 03-01-12 07:44 PM #75
    JackalLion
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    I see. Well thanks for the reply. BTW my early picks this week are Newman, Dinger and JJ. Will consider others after qual/practices.

    Thanks,

    Jackal
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  6. 03-01-12 07:57 PM #76
    Vegas39
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    Quote Originally Posted by ebbearsfb1 View Post
    Newman add plus 2200... I like... its his best track... been a stud at this track... nice write up on nascar.com about him

    Would say his second best after Loudon
    GL this weekend
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  7. 03-01-12 08:00 PM #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    I can't recall the Fall race for the life of me.

    Did the track drive much differently to the previous config?

    Was there two grooves like they were hoping?

    Was passing easier than before?

    Think groove will widen more as they go as I recall wasn't a lot of passing but have to look now
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  8. 03-02-12 10:17 AM #78
    5mike5
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    anybody interested in watching the only 2 practice sessions will be on SPEED channel at 2:30pm and 5:30 PM (est)
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-02-12 at 10:27 AM.
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  9. 03-02-12 10:23 AM #79
    5mike5
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    both todays practices will be run with Temps ONLY in the MID-60s....

    sunday is projected to be in the mid-80s and sunny by racetime, so track will be alot slicker sunday when the race begins

    also there is a 0% chance of percipitation the entire weekend
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  10. 03-02-12 10:34 AM #80
    5mike5
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    looking to see if i want to add anybody else b4 the sessions begin....
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  11. 03-02-12 10:51 AM #81
    5mike5
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    damn i really like KYLE at +375 in the nationwide race along with harvick at +500....i dont wager nationwide anything like Cup, usually only takeing 2-3 at the most and 1 H2H matuchup parlay...probably have to jump on these 2, and maybe 1 underdog but not til later
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-02-12 at 11:25 AM.
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  12. 03-02-12 10:51 AM #82
    JackalLion
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    Do you like Kurt with the number he is getting? I'm sure you know he was running very well last fall until a horrific pit stop. A lot of his issues were self induced in that race. With that said he still has an average of 13 there including his 22nd last fall. I guess we'll see how much support he's really getting from Hendrick this weekend.

    Jackal
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  13. 03-02-12 10:53 AM #83
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by JackalLion View Post
    Do you like Kurt with the number he is getting? I'm sure you know he was running very well last fall until a horrific pit stop. A lot of his issues were self induced in that race. With that said he still has an average of 13 there including his 22nd last fall. I guess we'll see how much support he's really getting from Hendrick this weekend.

    Jackal
    i love the # right now, but there is a good reson its that low too...i cant see me betting on kurt busch until i see some performance out of that team..im just not so sure they will contend for Wins this year, unless it involves stategy...Finch's team just isnt up to par with the rest, no matter what equipment it is....

    with that said i would not steer any1 away from kurt at that #, but i would have to see him start top 5 to take him anywhere
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  14. 03-02-12 10:56 AM #84
    5mike5
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    [QUOTE=Optional;13967829]I can't recall the Fall race for the life of me.

    Did the track drive much differently to the previous config?

    Was there two grooves like they were hoping?

    when they re-configured the track last summer, it made it ALOT faster compared to the old phoenix, and remember the drivers can go far below the yellow line too,(short-cutting) alot were doing that too...it is also ALOT easier to make passes than the old track was...i think it makes for way better racing than b4
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-02-12 at 11:00 AM.
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  15. 03-02-12 11:25 AM #85
    JackalLion
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    How well do you think Kasey will run in the Great Clips car? I see he has a low number.

    Jackal
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  16. 03-02-12 11:30 AM #86
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by JackalLion View Post
    How well do you think Kasey will run in the Great Clips car? I see he has a low number.

    Jackal
    personally im dont like the value of +1300 on him in #38 nationwide car at phoenix..he always seems to get in trouble in nationwide races..but i would never try and tell some1 not to bet whoever they like in any series, i just wouldnt at this point...unless he qualifies really well, i think that # goes down further than 13-1...it may get a little better if he practices/qualify well, but not enough for me to bet him early for a nationwide race....i may take him in a H2H or something, but he would have to be really impressive in the sessions for me to bet him to Win the race
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  17. 03-02-12 11:55 AM #87
    JackalLion
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    Thanks for the advice. I know you keep most of your data on your own but do you have any resources for Nationwide stats other than NASCAR.com and Jayski?

    Jackal
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  18. 03-02-12 11:57 AM #88
    onlooker
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    Quote Originally Posted by JackalLion View Post
    Thanks for the advice. I know you keep most of your data on your own but do you have any resources for Nationwide stats other than NASCAR.com and Jayski?

    Jackal
    MRN - Motor Racing Network
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  19. 03-02-12 11:59 AM #89
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by JackalLion View Post
    Thanks for the advice. I know you keep most of your data on your own but do you have any resources for Nationwide stats other than NASCAR.com and Jayski?

    Jackal
    honestly i just use my own stats and data for nationwide....but i dont spend alot of time on natiowide races...i just pick a very few to Win the race and a matchup and enjoy those races...just cant make anywhere near near the money on nationwide as Cup..dont get me wrong i try and pick'em and win, but just dont spend much time on them til saturday morning...if i like early odds on a few(like today) ill go ahead and bet a winner, but mostly just look sat. mornings
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  20. 03-02-12 12:01 PM #90
    onlooker
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    Hey Mike.

    Can you give me a run down on who your leaning on for the Cup race? So I don't have to read 3 pages.
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  21. 03-02-12 12:04 PM #91
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by onlooker View Post
    Hey Mike.

    Can you give me a run down on who your leaning on for the Cup race? So I don't have to read 3 pages.

    im waiting to make most of my picks til after todays sessions....didnt take many early wagers this week cause didnt see alot of value early...

    so far just took 2 big underdogs--newman(+2200) and burton(+3300), and 1 fav i took jimmy (+900) just because i cant leave him off my roster and hard ton get him at those odds...
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  22. 03-02-12 12:05 PM #92
    5mike5
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    qualifying is HUGE here and i think sessions are extra benificial to study b4 i make most of my picks this weekend....so just saving it til tonight/tomorrow before i really figure out where im throwing my money

    especially since only been 1 race since the track was totally re-configured, so cant pay too much attention to past results
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  23. 03-02-12 12:07 PM #93
    onlooker
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    im waiting to make most of my picks til after todays sessions....didnt take many early wagers this week cause didnt see alot of value early...

    so far just took 2 big underdogs--newman(+2200) and burton(+3300), and 1 fav i took jimmy (+900) just because i cant leave him off my roster and hard ton get him at those odds...
    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    qualifying is HUGE here and i think sessions are extra benificial to study b4 i make most of my picks this weekend....so just saving it til tonight/tomorrow before i really figure out where im throwing my money
    Thanks bud.

    I'm going to start going over stuff once the practices are done, just a little behind this week.
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  24. 03-02-12 12:09 PM #94
    5mike5
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    i dont think you have missed much....wasnt but a few guys that had any value what-soever imo...i mean at least without seeing any track time yet...
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  25. 03-02-12 12:12 PM #95
    JackalLion
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    Thanks Mike and OnLooker.

    I totally agree with your take on Qual here. I prob won't play any favs outside the top 15 on the grid.

    Jackal
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  26. 03-02-12 12:35 PM #96
    5mike5
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    WIND is looks brutal at the track doesnt it?

    wow
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  27. 03-02-12 02:45 PM #97
    5mike5
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    pretty much not many suprises so far, besides maybe biff being quite fast....

    but these guys are just working on fast qualifying laps mostly in the 1st session...im more intersted in race runs and laps
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  28. 03-02-12 02:46 PM #98
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    both todays practices will be run with Temps ONLY in the MID-60s....

    sunday is projected to be in the mid-80s and sunny by racetime, so track will be alot slicker sunday when the race begins

    also there is a 0% chance of percipitation the entire weekend
    Thanks, hadn't looked at temps. Good note.
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  29. 03-02-12 02:48 PM #99
    Optional
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    MWR looks very solid again this week.

    Out of Martin, Truex and Bowyer, does any one of them stand out as likely to finish ahead of the other two to anyone?
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  30. 03-02-12 02:51 PM #100
    JackalLion
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    Biff is bad fast in both trims. Maybe he's determined after reflecting all week on how he let the big one get away.
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  31. 03-02-12 02:59 PM #101
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by JackalLion View Post
    Biff is bad fast in both trims. Maybe he's determined after reflecting all week on how he let the big one get away.

    yeah if hes this good in happy hour ill think he may have something, but not just off that quick run in race trim....more focus on getting quickest time in this practice..2nd always much much more telling imo...not sure id bet him here no matter what he does but we shall see

    u would be shocked at how rare it is that leaders in top 5 of practice go on to win the race...not near as many as u may think, it suprised me at least
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-02-12 at 03:02 PM.
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  32. 03-02-12 03:01 PM #102
    onlooker
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    Newman into the wall pretty hard.
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  33. 03-02-12 03:04 PM #103
    5mike5
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    i really like this new configuration here.

    going to be SLICK raceday...already no grip and its going to be much warmer sunday
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  34. 03-02-12 03:08 PM #104
    JackalLion
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    Should be interesting. ESP when guys like Newman are having a hard time here.
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  35. 03-02-12 03:24 PM #105
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by onlooker View Post
    Newman into the wall pretty hard.
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