[Optional]

With racing moving from the normal July date for the first time I wonder how accurate the teams setup notes will be this weekend.

Kyle has won the only 2 trucks races here, held in late August the last 2 years. So I'm also wondering if that experience might be any help for his Cup car too.

Stats wise Vickers is a stud here. Holding the best average start in the field (5.4) and 2nd best average finish (8.8), and a pole, from his 5 race starts.

Jeff Gordon has the best finish average of 8.6, with a pole, a win and 6 top 5s from 10 starts... but Smoke is the man with the most impressive stats; 2 Wins, 1 Pole, 7 top 5s, 8 top 10s from 10 starts.

Although Harvick's 2 wins here came pre-COT, he also has 2 Nationwide series wins so think it's safe to say this track suits Happy's style.

Jimmie and Bowyer come next in the list... neither have a win here but both average a top 10 finish, with Bowyer doing that 4 times from 5 starts and Jimmie 7 times from 8 starts.

The track ranks around 8th best for Kyle with a win and 2 top 5s from 6 starts in Cup (plus 2 more in Nationwide and the 2 truck wins mentioned earlier).

Nothing in Hamlin's stats to recommend him for me. Never led a lap, 16.8 is below average finish for him. It is his second best track for qualifying though.

Drivers with stats that make it look like they struggle here: Kurt Busch, Menard, Kesolowski, Kahne, Edwards, Logano.

After 23 races in all divisions, the only Ford win came in 2003 from Bobby Hamilton Jr in the Busch series. But the best Fords look like Kenseth and Allmendinger, on stats. (if you are a Blue blood like me)


5 Dimes says;

Jeff Gordon +750
Jimmie Johnson +775
Carl Edwards +775
Kyle Busch +775
Kevin Harvick +1200
Matt Kenseth +1200
Denny Hamlin +1400
Tony Stewart +1400
Brad Keselowski +1400
Kurt Busch +1400
Greg Biffle +2200
Clint Bowyer +2700
Juan Pablo Montoya +3300
Dale Earnhardt Jr +3300
Kasey Kahne +3300
David Reutimann +3800
Ryan Newman +3800
Brian Vickers +4400
Jeff Burton +4400
Joey Logano +4400
David Ragan +4500
Martin Truex Jr +4500
AJ Allmendinger +4500
Mark Martin +4500
Jamie McMurray +5500
Paul Menard +5500


Think I'm leaning Kyle at this stage. Hard to leave Gordon and Johnson out too.

[hawk 5]

Taking me some 24 and some 48. Like your look at Vickers but....

[hawk 5]

Nice numbers on the favs right now. Jimmie at +825 and Mr Gordon at +875.

[Optional]

I might follow your lead Hawk. But take Kyle as well.

I'm eyeing off these race matchups too

• Jeff Gordon #24* +105 vs Carl Edwards #99
• Jimmie Johnson #48* -115 vs Matt Kenseth #17
• Kevin Harvick #29* +100 vs Denny Hamlin #11
• Ryan Newman #39* +115 vs Brad Keselowski #2

[Optional]

Ended up taking Gordon +875 and Bowyer +3000

[StanleySharp]

I have to back Kyle on this track. Liking Brad K and Bowyer as well....

Haven't had a profitable week in NASCAR in well over a month. I'm a good fade right now. Hoping to profit this weekend

[Optional]

When I first started posting here someone said to me "Never bet against a team running a new chassis". I haven't tracked it properly to know for sure if it's true, but I check it most weeks and it does seem to be a real pointer to contenders. A few races back there were 3 new chasis in the race and they finished 1,2,3 (cant recall which race now)

Anyway, here's the new chassis' Jayski report for this race.

Brad K
Kyle
Harvick
Bowyer
Allmendinger
Edwards

[Optional]

...

[hawk 5]

Adding David Reutimann at +2000 to spoil the party. Will add 1 more.

[hawk 5]

Qualifying killed me.

[Optional]

9/18/11 2:15pm Motor Racing Sprint Cup +2000 Geico 400 - Kevin Harvick
9/18/11 2:15pm Motor Racing Sprint Cup +2800 Geico 400 - Clint Bowyer
9/18/11 2:15pm Motor Racing Sprint Cup +6600 Geico 400 - AJ Allmendinger
9/18/11 2:15pm Motor Racing Sprint Cup +11500 Geico 400 - Marcos Ambrose <-- just my personal speculator every week

[hawk 5]

Everything points to a Kenseth win so Matt at +600. GL all.

[hawk 5]

I'm putting 10$ on Newman at +3300. Can't pass that # up.

[Sawsi]

I definitely like the Vickers pick, however I'd go with Kyle. It's going to be a Toyota in VL.

[yisman]

Didn't have time to look at head to head with all the football, but I checked the field bet.

35/1, but best you get is Ambrose 150/1.

I'd gladly bet 1/35 the other way or even 1/40.

They give you Ambrose, Smith, and a bunch of guys who don't even try. lol. 35/1? Should be at least 50/1. 26 drivers taken out of the field, leaving you with nothing.

Anyone want Blaney at 2000/1? I'd gladly give it.

[yisman]

racing at noon Monday.

[Optional]

Getting sick of these rain delayed races

[hawk 5]

Way sick. Got to get through the day without anybody telling me who won.

[yisman]

9/19/11 12:00pm SprintCup Motor Racing 7515 Tony Stewart #14 +2½ -115* vs Brad Keselowski #2

(1359) David Ragan #6 -105 Mon@12:00p
Competitor1360) Juan Pablo Montoya #42

(1335) Matt Kenseth #17 -140 Mon@12:00p
Competitor1336) Jimmie Johnson #48

(1333) Jamie McMurray #1 -145 Mon@12:00p
Competitor1334) Paul Menard #27

(1327) David Ragan #6 -115 Mon@12:00p
Competitor1328) Martin Truex Jr. #56

(1318) David Reutimann #00 EVEN Mon@12:00p
Competitor1317) Kasey Kahne #4

(1308) Tony Stewart #14 -115 Mon@12:00p
Competitor1307) Denny Hamlin #11


and then at Heritage, with an obvious arb:

Selection : P Menard
Time : 9/19/2011 9:00:01AM - (PST)
Line : +160

off of the McMurray -145 at Bodog

[yisman]

We're already down to 26 drivers trying to win.

[Optional]

That last lap everyone runs out of fuel shit is almost as bad as waiting on the rain.

2 shitty races 2 weeks in a row.

[avssakic]

Damn fuel milage races are killing me this year

[firstclass]

i was hoping for a caution that never came the last 25 laps. this would have been alot different finish. the fast cars johnson etc.. were all trying to save fuel.