[dRavidC]

HEY EVERYONE! I will be posting all my plays here in this thread. Any comment/feedback on the plays are welcome

Game: Canterbury vs Wests

Bet: First Try - 9th Minute of Later/ No Try WON (way too easy)

A nice fun bet to kick the season off. $10 bet. The fact that the game total of the NYC (the league where defence doesn't exist) only went to 22 has me off playing the over 42.5 in this game. Also the bookies seem to favouring the under as well pricing it as $1.85 as opposed to the over ($1.95). That is enough to put me off the total altogether and as the side is pretty much a 50-50 call, i've decided to stay low.

2011 NRL Season Record: 1-0 (100%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 18/3

Game: Parramatta v Penrith

Bet: First Try - 9th Minute of Later/ No Try LOSS

Game: Canberra v Brisbane

Bet: Canberra -3 1st half LOSS

2011 NRL Season Record: 1-2 (33.33%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 19/3

Game: Melbourne vs Gold Coast

Bet: First Try - 9th Minute or Later/ No Try LOSS

I see both teams taking a conservative approach in first 10-15 minutes of the game, completing their sets, getting to their kicks, and aiming them towards the sidelines to create stoppages. Both sides are very disciplined and aren't error-prone. Unlucky not to get this bet for the parramatta game but I think we'll get it here.

*Just a note that 9th minute means 8:01

And remember to check back here as I may be posting plays on the other 2 games that will be played tonight.

Game: Wests v New Zealand

Bet: First Try - 9th Minute or Later/ No Try WON

Weather forecast: it is absolutely pouring down. this sort of weather will mean that we won't see pretty footy. it will be a pretty ugly game and i don't think a try will be scored in the first 8 minutes.

Game: North Queensland v Newcastle

Bet: North Queensland -2.5 1st half LOSS

I am looking for ways to back Newcastle here but I think the loss of Gidley will have a massive impact on their chances tonight. But I really can't go past Bowen and Thurston in full flight. I think they'll give the Cowboys a lead here and cover this short number. I'm gonna wait for a few more matches until I am confident enough or have a good enough idea to handicap full games.

2011 NRL Season Record: 2 - 4 (33.33%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 20/3

Game: Sydney vs Manly

Bet: Sydney M/L LOSS

2011 NRL Season Record: 2 - 5 (28.57%)

[jhol3990]

what odd are you getting? i'm not seeing good enough odds on the roosters, particularly in the wet

[dRavidC]

what odd are you getting? i'm not seeing good enough odds on the roosters, particularly in the wet

i had 1.45. doesn't really matter now as the roosters look pretty much gone...

[dRavidC]

NRL 21/3

Game: Cronulla vs St George

Bet: Cronulla +7.5 1st half WON

sorry for the delayed post. my internet was down for the past hour.

2011 NRL Season Record: 3 - 5 (37.5%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 25/3

Game: Paramatta vs South Sydney

Bet: Over 40.5 WON

Every game involving the Bunnies can't see why this can't as well. Rabbits will be fired up because they've lost 2 in a row. Eels will be because they could muster 6 points in 80 minutes of footy!

2011 NRL Season Record: 4 - 5 (44.4%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 26/3

Game: Wests vs Canberra

Bet: Wests -4 WON

Perfect weather for footy and I expect Wests to get the win here against the "HOT n COLD" Raiders. Wests were really rusty in last week's game against the Warriors and I am still amazed with how they were able to escape with a win but I bet Sheens would of said something to the boys so expect a cleaner and better execution from them tonight. The fact that the raiders had so much possession and could muster 4 points at home is a concern for me which has kept me off the over total bet, and though i expect to be a lot more efficient tonight, I don't think it'll be enough against a fire-up Tigers side at home.

2011 NRL Season Record: 5 - 5 (50%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 28/3

Game: North Queensland vs Melbourne

Bet: Melbourne -5.5 LOSS (dumb dumb bet really sorry for all those who followed)

[dRavidC]

2011 NRL Season Record: 5 - 6 (45.45%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 1/4

Game: South Sydney vs Manly

Bet: South Sydney & Over 43.5 WON

2011 NRL Season Record: 6 - 6 (50.00%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 3/4

Game: Cronulla vs New Zealand

Bet: New Zealand -2.5 WON

strangely, this game is actually being played in new zealand despite being a cronulla home game. really new zealand couldn't of had a better chance to break their duck. If they can't win here, when can they win?

2011 NRL Season Record: 7 - 6 (53.85%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 4/4

Game: Melbourne vs Canterbury

Bet: Melbourne -2.5 WON & Over 38.5 WON

2011 NRL Season Record: 9 - 6 (60.00%)

[dRavidC]

correction

NRL 1/4

Game: South Sydney vs Manly

Bet: South Sydney WON & Over 43.5 WON

2011 NRL Season Record: 6 - 6 (50.00%)

2011 NRL Season Record: 10 - 6 (62.50%)

[StevoS]

Awesome picks dRavidC . Looks like you had a pretty profitable weekend.

[dRavidC]

Awesome picks dRavidC . Looks like you had a pretty profitable weekend.

thanks StevoS! Yeah it was a pretty good weekend for me cashed in on both the AFL and NRL. Hope you had a profitable weekend as well

[dRavidC]

NRL 8/4

Game: Wests vs South Sydney

Bet: Over 46 LOSS (wow who of thought south sydney with all their attacking weapons would be kept to 6 points in 80 minutes!)

South Sydney have to be one of the most exciting teams in the comp. They're scoring points and they're leaking points at just about the same rate. The game totals for Rabbitoh games for the first 4 rounds are 69, 47, 50 and 62 and the rabbits are averaging 28 points a game. The game totals for Wests are surprisingly low 38, 32, 58, 30 and they are only averaging just 18.5 points a game. So the total being at 46 is just about right. With the unpredictability of both sides, the side looks like a coin toss and I just can't ignore how high scoring the first 4 south sydney games have been so far so I'm backing the over here.

[dRavidC]

NRL 10/4

Game: Melbourne vs Paramatta

Bet: Melbourne -4.5 1st half WON

Game: St George vs Canterbury

Bet: St George -2 1st half WON

2011 NRL Season Record: 12 - 7 (63.16%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 11/4

Game: Brisbane vs Newcastle

Bet: Brisbane -3.5 WON & Under 40.5 WON

2011 NRL Season Record: 14 - 7 (66.67%)

[dRavidC]

the under was way way way too easy!!!!!

the side was a bit nervy with newcastle having repeated cracks at the broncos defence but were denied a few tries and kudos to brisbane's defence!!!!

[geronimoau]

brisbanes defense looking good this yr, their 2nd half stats are ridiculous. and yeh the under was way too easy, brisbane good defense + wet weather = low scoring game.

Looks like u had a good weekend. I was also on the souths over, in fairness they had quite alot of opportunities but just couldnt score points.

[geronimoau]

brisbanes defense looking good this yr, their 2nd half stats are ridiculous. and yeh the under was way too easy, brisbane good defense + wet weather = low scoring game.

Looks like u had a good weekend. I was also on the souths over, in fairness they had quite alot of opportunities but just couldnt score points.

[therealdealau]

i agree geron

[dRavidC]

NRL 15/4

Early Leans

Game: Paramatta vs Canterbury

Bet: Over 38.5 WON

Both these teams will be fired up for this contest for similar reasons. After a 3 - 0 season start to the season, the Bulldogs have dropped two games against premiership contenders in Melbourne and St George and were beaten quite soundly in those games. Parramatta are struggling to find points and are backing up from a 38 point hiding from the Storm where they were held scoreless. Both sides have had recent problems with scoring points and I think that would of been the emphasis for both teams in training. The side is a bit of a 50/50 call: you have a bulldogs side whose confidence has been shattered and then you have a parramatta side who look unbackable right now. I think the more "fired-up" side takes this game. So having said that, I'm expecting a higher scoring game than what the line suggests possibly a 26 - 22 type scoreline.

Game: Gold Coast vs Wests

Bet: PASS

Gold Coast have looked terrible all season but if you take a closer look you'll see that their poor performances are mainly coming from their away games. This is a home game for them and they play a Tigers team which are winless on the road. The Tigers have had superb passages of play but i'm not convinced that this West Tigers team have established the required consistency to be considered premiership contenders. I think Gold Coast can get their act together and win this. But I don't want to back them for 80 minutes until they give me reason to. Having said that, I think a first half play would be a better option and I'm looking at Gold Coast -1 @ 2.00. But still deciding...

2011 NRL Season Record: 15 - 7 (68.18%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 16/4

Game: Manly v New Zealand

Bet: Over 16.5 1st half WON

Game: Sydney vs Brisbane

Bet: Under 34.5 WON

Game: North Queensland vs Canberra

Bet: North Queensland -2.5 1st half WON

2011 NRL Season Record: 18 - 7 (72.00%)

[dRavidC]

was sweating over manly v new zealand and sydney v brisbane.

manly scored in the 37th minute to go OVER 16.5

brisbane-sydney Game total was at 30 with 13 minutes to play. Both teams had full sets at their opponents tryline and Brisbane had like repeated sets of 6 in the final minutes of the game.

have to say we were lucky to say the least.

[Bazz27]

Nice tipping dRavidC, u like anything 2day in nrl/afl

[dRavidC]

yep just one game for the nrl

NRL 17/4

Game: Penrith vs Melbourne

Bet: Melbourne -2 1st half PUSH

added: (using the money i got back from the bet above)

Melbourne -2.5 2nd half

From all honesty I can't see how Penrith can score here. The only way they scored was through a lucky break with a kick going wrong and the Penrith Winger scored from 100m and the only person in his way was a front rower and he was behind him. Storm look so devastating and I wouldn't be surprised to see Melbourne score some tries.

2011 NRL Season Record: 18 - 7 - 1 (72.00%)

[rjc]

yep just one game for the nrl

NRL 17/4

Game: Penrith vs Melbourne

Bet: Melbourne -2 1st half

Wow! You'll take that any day. Got lucky with the push.
What's your lean for tomorrows game?

[dRavidC]

yeah very lucky indeed! last seconds of the game.

not sure as of yet probably will think about it and have it posted by tomorrow if i do make a play. but really how can you go back a "ROCKS and DIAMONGS" Rabbitohs side to beat a consistent and red hot dragons side even if it is at their home ground. BUt then again it's monday night footy so i wouldn't be surprised to see an upset.

[dRavidC]

yep just one game for the nrl

NRL 17/4

Game: Penrith vs Melbourne

Bet: Melbourne -2 1st half PUSH

added: (using the money i got back from the bet above)

Melbourne -2.5 2nd half WON

From all honesty I can't see how Penrith can score here. The only way they scored was through a lucky break with a kick going wrong and the Penrith Winger scored from 100m and the only person in his way was a front rower and he was behind him. Storm look so devastating and I wouldn't be surprised to see Melbourne score some tries.

2011 NRL Season Record: 18 - 7 - 1 (72.00%)

FIXED RECORD


2011 NRL Season Record: 19- 7 - 1 (73.08%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 22/4

Game: Wests vs Brisbane

Bet: Wests -3.5 & U 37.5 LOSS

My book is offering me 100% winner's bonus if i make a play on line and total double so I've decided to take up the challenge and use a small proportion of my winnings and put it into this bet. Here you have a battle between the best defensive side in the comp at the moment (Brisbane Broncos) playing against a side is playing quite inconsistently but is at home (West Tigers). Apart from the mishap against the Cowboys in the first round, the Broncos have been on fire and their defence has been winning them all their games since that first round loss. The Tigers on the other hand have been very inconsistent, mainly in attack which could have something to do with the change in half pairings with Lui out. But looking closely, we'll see that most of this inconsistent play has been on the road. They may not look convincing on their home ground at times but they always seem to find a way out. I don't expect this game to be a try fest, I'm expecting both teams to play conservatively, up their defence, earn cheap penalties and attack when they're inside the opposition 20/half. 60% of the public are on the Broncos but I think that home turf and Benji Marshall are not factors I want to be betting against. With a rather below par performance last week against the Titans and losing after taking such a commanding lead, I expect Marshall to be more fired up and play the game that we all know he is capable of. But let's not forget whose at the other end, one of the best players of the game Darren Lockyer and he will do everything in his power to cause pressure on the wingers and the whole team for that matter with his precise kicking game. But just can't go against Marshall and his tigers at home here.

2011 NRL Season Record: 19- 8 - 1 (70.37%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 24/4

Game: Canberra vs Newcastle

Bet: Canberra -2 1st half WON

2011 NRL Season Record: 20 - 8 - 1 (71.43%)

[messiah029]

hey david, wats your opinion for eels/titans game?