[KVB]

As many of you know I often analyze the sports betting markets by making a line or price and compare that line or price to the offered market. I also apply a market analysis that is best shown, in some part, in the http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...16443-cfl.html thread. Golf is a trickier sport and declaring odds to win or creating a line for a matchup is a lesser known art to say the least.

I haven’t exactly created any valid lines or numbers, it’s early, but rest assured the books have and I have only begun to break down their story.

In analyzing the early flow of money in the golf markets, my metrics immediately signaled one golfer. This early in the season, with the give and take of the sports markets, such positive evidence can very easily lead down a losing road.

In fact, I bought the play so early that subsequent research showed PGATour “experts” picking this golfer. It seems he’s got a bit of a hometown advantage and other golfers in his 2011 class have been doing well. Indeed it would appear there is more money being split here than I may have initially anticipated, it is only Tuesday.

Due to focus on this golfer coming from different groups, I consider this a market situation in which an outright loss here will give us a direction of money flow that should lead to a profitable bet in the future. There will be a give and there will be a take. Striking now might show a lack of patience, but it says a lot that we can recognize that fact.

Even if it results in a loss, knowing that the books appear to be “selling” certain plays will help in the future.

Patrick Rodgers tied for sixth last week at the Fry’s .com. Early this week I picked up Patrick Rodgers +4000 to win the Shriners Hospitals Open.

It’s early in the season and I recognize he doesn’t need to win here. Part of trading in golf futures, which are posted each day of the tournament, is what I call constructing a leaderboard for Sunday.

If Rodgers is up there on Sunday, I will likely have developed some equity, which can lead to profit. And of course, the ultimate goal this golf season is to make a profit.

Sunday trading can be important. Last week I only took two golf positions at only one house, both on Sunday, and it worked out well…

Graded Golf.jpg


Make no mistake, there are such things as sharp oddsmakers and bookmakers in golf and they will use every technique in the book and then some to get a sharp bettor’s money.

There will be times, however, because of the easy nature of the public golf bettor, that the books will get a little soft and I intend to sniff those out. Patience, discipline, and some basic understanding of what is really happening in the markets will get us onto some winners and off of some losers along the way.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...idnt-read.html

Good Luck.

[Chi_archie]

great post!!

i will be following rodgers

[CWD]

if i can scrape some cash together might take a shot , outside of flowler its throwing darts

will wilcox 60-1

[jjgold]

nice work guy

You seem technical and sharp

[CWD]

looks like its gone from shift jj to JJ-BOT

[KVB]

This second tournament of the season offers a market analyst many options. Of course, so did last week’s tournament and who again had Emiliano Grillo to win it all? One thing is for sure, a lot of bets lost last week. My point once again goes back to patience. With so many options so early in the season it can be best to watch closely to determine the direction of the markets relative to the field of golfers. Watching how this plays out on the course will help to construct leaderboards in the future.

So what are we looking for anyway? Essentially we are looking the money to flow through the market place and trying to anticipate its direction. We’re not just seeking good deals and value, we are seeking opportunity. Unfortunately, the high cost of vigorish is something we simply have to overcome and shouldn’t be an issue if we keep the initial pre-tournament selections down. Unfortunately, by betting during the tournament and not before it begins, we often forego the best odds and payouts.

The oddsmakers clearly initiate the flow of money we are looking for. The books, and their line movement will play a marginal role, usually (but that’s up to them), in anticipating direction. Our anticipation comes from what happens on the course combined with the oddsmaker’s reaction to the same.

Now, over 140 golfers will tee off and if we don’t start with some kind of roadmap it will be impossible to play this casino game they call golf. We know the books like to split money and we know they play into the nature of bettors to steer the money, usually into their hands.

Let me think out loud for a moment and as this tournament and season moves forward we should see some definition amidst the fog of war…

For the tournament as a whole I would expect to see success from Jimmy Walker or Tony Finau, and failure from the other. Success doesn’t mean the golfer has to win, but he should be up there. Up where? Maybe top 10, but that can be tough. With groups of golfers tying, just one or two strokes can be the difference between 10 and 17. The main point is that one golfer will fail, like miss the cut or be way down, while the other does much better. It means that we shouldn’t see both golfers doing well, nor should we see both golfers perform horrible. Of course, if we do we will take note.

On a side note, I have early metrics that indicate Tony Finau may win a tournament this year, he will be interesting to watch on weekly basis.

Moving on, I expect success from Charley Hoffman or Webb Simpson and failure from the other. I look for success from last week’s first round leader Brendan Steele or Hunter Mahan and failure from the other.

Normally we shouldn’t see so many italicized names, I will generally keep them limited but there are three more pairs. Keegan Bradley or Russell Knox and Cameron Tringale or Steven Bowditch should result in one success and one failure among each pair. Freddie Jacobson or Stewart Cink; one should succeed and one should fail. In general, moving forward, this list of pairings will be much shorter and I left a couple off.

To be brief, individuals and performances worth mentioning to keep an eye on will be Scott Piercy, Jason Bohn, Brendon Todd, Jonas Blixt and Brooks Koepka.

Golfers in italics are worth watching and could be considered as leaders of any round, especially the first round, and even considered for the outright win.

I have early metrics indicating that Koepka and Rodgers are good candidates to win the first round and Koepka could win it all. I will refrain from these bets but I went ahead and picked up Brooks Koepka +175 (TOP 10) for the Shriners Hospitals Open.

Good Luck.

[MoeSedway]

KVB's horsey, Patty Rodgers, tearing it up at TPC Summerlin, -5 through 9.

I have him in a bunch of my DraftKings lineups, but no futures. GL, KVB.

[KVB]

Sometimes I take some shots and build positions that I don't want to expose the thread too and I only post images from the 5 Dimes...

Here's the pending before I bought two other matchups...

Pending.jpg


Here are the matchups...

pending1.jpg

[KVB]

It looks like Patrick Rodgers was one of, if not the first golfer to tee off. He made it -7 before settling at -6, in the lead.

This tells me I have some feel for the pulse of this tournament. Like all markets and the way they play themselves out on the field, golf can be misleading. The two matchups I posted above are losing, let's see what it looks after the cut and again on Sunday.

[drthethird]

KVB, it was my pleasure to read your work and write up. Such a quality, is hard to find around here. Cheers to you sir and hope you cash in.

Please allow me to post a couple of my afternoon parlay as I look forward to both of them cashing.
-1 10/23/15 1:56pm $76.00 $460.43 Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 10/23/15 3:18pm PGA Golf 7220 Brandt Snedeker (2nd Rnd) -120* vs Brooks Koepka (2nd Rnd)
Pending 10/23/15 2:40pm PGA Golf 7232 Patrick Rodgers (2nd Rnd) +110* vs Scott Piercy (2nd Rnd)
Pending 10/23/15 2:49pm PGA Golf 7262 Fabian Gomez (2nd Rnd) -120* vs Jim Herman (2nd Rnd)
335939691-1 10/23/15 1:53pm $25.00 $472.61 Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 10/23/15 2:59pm PGA Golf 7216 Daniel Summerhays (2nd Rnd) +110* vs Jason Bohn (2nd Rnd)
Pending 10/23/15 3:08pm PGA Golf 7218 Jimmy Walker (2nd Rnd) +120* vs Rickie Fowler (2nd Rnd)
Pending 10/23/15 4:05pm PGA Golf 7230 Ryo Ishikawa (2nd Rnd) +135* vs Tony Finau (2nd Rnd)
Pending 10/23/15 2:49pm PGA Golf 7262 Fabian Gomez (2nd Rnd) -120* vs Jim Herman (2nd Rnd)

[KVB]

Ordinarily I will enter this thread more often in a weekend. I have been busy and since it is the second week of golf I am trying to be patient for readers. I could fire several bullets and just passed on Kevin NA +285. I think it’s too early to call a winner.

One other thing…I am kicking myself for not giving my full list of individuals to watch and the pairs. Some names I left out sit high up early today. There are a lot of golfers within range but some literally have no chance. Others have a better shot.

Keep an eye on Jason Bohn, should he show up in the live markets, I may pull the trigger.
It will be tough to post live plays in time for bettors so I am trying to give a little “heads up.”

[KVB]

KVB, it was my pleasure to read your work and write up. Such a quality, is hard to find around here. Cheers to you sir and hope you cash in.

Please allow me to post a couple of my afternoon parlay as I look forward to both of them cashing.
-1 10/23/15 1:56pm $76.00 $460.43 Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 10/23/15 3:18pm PGA Golf 7220 Brandt Snedeker (2nd Rnd) -120* vs Brooks Koepka (2nd Rnd)
Pending 10/23/15 2:40pm PGA Golf 7232 Patrick Rodgers (2nd Rnd) +110* vs Scott Piercy (2nd Rnd)
Pending 10/23/15 2:49pm PGA Golf 7262 Fabian Gomez (2nd Rnd) -120* vs Jim Herman (2nd Rnd)
335939691-1 10/23/15 1:53pm $25.00 $472.61 Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 10/23/15 2:59pm PGA Golf 7216 Daniel Summerhays (2nd Rnd) +110* vs Jason Bohn (2nd Rnd)
Pending 10/23/15 3:08pm PGA Golf 7218 Jimmy Walker (2nd Rnd) +120* vs Rickie Fowler (2nd Rnd)
Pending 10/23/15 4:05pm PGA Golf 7230 Ryo Ishikawa (2nd Rnd) +135* vs Tony Finau (2nd Rnd)
Pending 10/23/15 2:49pm PGA Golf 7262 Fabian Gomez (2nd Rnd) -120* vs Jim Herman (2nd Rnd)

Thanks for chiming in. Like the CFL thread, any input is more than welcome. I may be able to narrow some guys down with market analysis, giving us a positive field to work with, but input form others following golf can really hep us hone in on the money.

[KVB]

if i can scrape some cash together might take a shot , outside of flowler its throwing darts

will wilcox 60-1

True, and the dartboard isn't even symmetrical. After some time, the circles on the board will become more clear with truer curves, we may even see the bulls eye a couple of times.

[Ra77er]

[KVB]

I just picked up Cameron Tringale at +265. This is early and be careful tailing just yet.

I look for Bohn to show up live, don't think it's Stegmaier, but know there could be more to it than Tringale and Bohn.

[KVB]

Good Day Ra77er. Root for those Raiders too (and the OVER, lol) I have the winner tied to a few winners from last week.



I admit it, I bought the Raiders.

edit: lol, I guess some of those are posted above.

[KVB]

Early on Sunday afternoon, many houses put up live lines on certain golfers. Usually these early ones are wrong, usually.

Now Kevin Na just keeps popping up there, now he's +160. I'm thinking it's not him for this reason but we have to be careful, he could get in the playoff.

Still looking for Bohn...

[KVB]

Na is offered every time at +160 now...I am holding though as it is still too soon.

live.JPG


I'd like to say look I'm ahead of the market with Tringale. But, like I said, it's early and, in golf, we can see a lot of volatility.

Winner should be about -17.

[KVB]

Na is offered every time at +160 now...I am holding though as it is still too soon.

live.JPG



I'd like to say look I'm ahead of the market with Tringale. But, like I said, it's early and, in golf, we can see a lot of volatility.

Winner should be about -17.

Nice little trend, but it is early.

Bohn birdied a hole but it isn't enough, he needs to do it again.

[KVB]

I just bought Jason Bohn +650 to win the Shriners.

[KVB]

We can get Kevin Na for +275. Not a bad deal, but it sure feels like the books are "selling" Na. A failure by Na today could lead to profit in this thread as well as bets in the future.

Hmmm....perhaps it is Na.

Sometimes it helps to think out loud and note instances, especially since money may follow Na from here.

[KVB]

Just Na sits on my screen at +205 almost tempting me to give a unit back as "insurance."

[KVB]

live.JPG


This could be a bad sign at this hour of the afternoon.

[KVB]

Guess who constitutes a field bet...

live.jpg



leaderboard.jpg

[KVB]

Not posted from the 5 Dimes, but an attempt to get a little back with Smylie...

Pending.jpg

[KVB]

I have been gathering some data and busy with other sports but have not forgotten about this thread. There are many trails to follow and it takes time and I need more data.

That said I have picked up Jordan Spieth +515 to win the WGC HSBC Champions.

I have identified a turn in the marketplace that could manifest itself into a Spieth victory.

Not much more than that to say as I haven’t even reviewed the tournament above.

Good Luck.

[Duckshit]

Sharp, I enjoy your thread.

[KVB]

I've also selected Patrick Rogers +1100 to win the Sanderson Farms Championship.


I don't think we've quite come full circle to Rogers yet, but at 11-1 and the position he is in with that possibility looming I think we can make something of it.

This tournament has not completed the second round. If we were heading into the final round tomorrow, I would take Roberto Castro at +160. But as it stands, this tournament may not end until Monday.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Sharp, I enjoy your thread.

Cheers Duck. Hopefully, as we move forward, I will have more to offer on the PGA. I was thrown off by two tournaments in Asia and the start times these last couple of weeks.

I'll get it together...lol.