As many of you know I often analyze the sports betting markets by making a line or price and compare that line or price to the offered market. I also apply a market analysis that is best shown, in some part, in the http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...16443-cfl.html thread. Golf is a trickier sport and declaring odds to win or creating a line for a matchup is a lesser known art to say the least.
I haven’t exactly created any valid lines or numbers, it’s early, but rest assured the books have and I have only begun to break down their story.
In analyzing the early flow of money in the golf markets, my metrics immediately signaled one golfer. This early in the season, with the give and take of the sports markets, such positive evidence can very easily lead down a losing road.
In fact, I bought the play so early that subsequent research showed PGATour “experts” picking this golfer. It seems he’s got a bit of a hometown advantage and other golfers in his 2011 class have been doing well. Indeed it would appear there is more money being split here than I may have initially anticipated, it is only Tuesday.
Due to focus on this golfer coming from different groups, I consider this a market situation in which an outright loss here will give us a direction of money flow that should lead to a profitable bet in the future. There will be a give and there will be a take. Striking now might show a lack of patience, but it says a lot that we can recognize that fact.
Even if it results in a loss, knowing that the books appear to be “selling” certain plays will help in the future.
Patrick Rodgers tied for sixth last week at the Fry’s .com. Early this week I picked up Patrick Rodgers +4000 to win the Shriners Hospitals Open.
It’s early in the season and I recognize he doesn’t need to win here. Part of trading in golf futures, which are posted each day of the tournament, is what I call constructing a leaderboard for Sunday.
If Rodgers is up there on Sunday, I will likely have developed some equity, which can lead to profit. And of course, the ultimate goal this golf season is to make a profit.
Sunday trading can be important. Last week I only took two golf positions at only one house, both on Sunday, and it worked out well…
Make no mistake, there are such things as sharp oddsmakers and bookmakers in golf and they will use every technique in the book and then some to get a sharp bettor’s money.
There will be times, however, because of the easy nature of the public golf bettor, that the books will get a little soft and I intend to sniff those out. Patience, discipline, and some basic understanding of what is really happening in the markets will get us onto some winners and off of some losers along the way.
Good Luck.
I haven’t exactly created any valid lines or numbers, it’s early, but rest assured the books have and I have only begun to break down their story.
In analyzing the early flow of money in the golf markets, my metrics immediately signaled one golfer. This early in the season, with the give and take of the sports markets, such positive evidence can very easily lead down a losing road.
In fact, I bought the play so early that subsequent research showed PGATour “experts” picking this golfer. It seems he’s got a bit of a hometown advantage and other golfers in his 2011 class have been doing well. Indeed it would appear there is more money being split here than I may have initially anticipated, it is only Tuesday.
Due to focus on this golfer coming from different groups, I consider this a market situation in which an outright loss here will give us a direction of money flow that should lead to a profitable bet in the future. There will be a give and there will be a take. Striking now might show a lack of patience, but it says a lot that we can recognize that fact.
Even if it results in a loss, knowing that the books appear to be “selling” certain plays will help in the future.
Patrick Rodgers tied for sixth last week at the Fry’s .com. Early this week I picked up Patrick Rodgers +4000 to win the Shriners Hospitals Open.
It’s early in the season and I recognize he doesn’t need to win here. Part of trading in golf futures, which are posted each day of the tournament, is what I call constructing a leaderboard for Sunday.
If Rodgers is up there on Sunday, I will likely have developed some equity, which can lead to profit. And of course, the ultimate goal this golf season is to make a profit.
Sunday trading can be important. Last week I only took two golf positions at only one house, both on Sunday, and it worked out well…
Make no mistake, there are such things as sharp oddsmakers and bookmakers in golf and they will use every technique in the book and then some to get a sharp bettor’s money.
There will be times, however, because of the easy nature of the public golf bettor, that the books will get a little soft and I intend to sniff those out. Patience, discipline, and some basic understanding of what is really happening in the markets will get us onto some winners and off of some losers along the way.
Good Luck.
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