Hey guys,
I am rather new to the forum but I have been a fan of cycling all my life. Even did some races myself when i was 15-18 years old. I love the sport but never really did any bets on it. I have been a professional poker player for years now so I am definitely used to odd calculations, risk/reward scenarios, bank roll management, tilt control etc.
The cycling season has started now and I will record my bets here.
Paris-Nice started today and I will start my betting tomorrow on the non-TT race.
I will not post any units, since it is very confusing with cycling. There will be a lot of +900 and -1250 plays etc so it gets a little confusing. I will just post the amounts in $ since I think that will be easier for people to follow. I will start with a bankroll of $3,000. Sometimes there will be a range for the odds since the market is very small, even my bets move the lines and I get worse odds if I book more.
Picks for race 1:
- Greipel vs the field: Field @ -460. $345 to win $75
Compared to other years his start of the season has not been so smooth yet. Yes, he does have one win already, but he has plenty of bad performances too. Also today in the short time trail he did VERY poorly at a 126th place. I know he is not a TT professional but usually he ends up way higher in these things. This all leads me to believe that he is not yet ready to when a race of this level with his current form.
- Degenkolb vs the field: Degenkolb @ 613 $21.2 to win $130
Compared to Greipel he actually is in much better shape. He won one stage already as well (with a little bit of a hilly finish against valverde, pozatto and other big names). Two second places and he did VERY well in the TT today (6th place). It is still going to be tough to win against Kristoff, but if one man is going to do it, it is him.
- Kristoff vs Greipel: Kristoff @ -115/-119 $233 to win $200
Incredible odds I feel like. Kristoff already has 4 wins this year, a second place (in a very tough race) and a third place. Compared to the one from Greipel that is not in the best form. I would almost call this a lock.
-Arnaud Demare vs Nacer Bouhanni: Bouhanni @ -150/-153 $195.9 to win $130
Both joined the tour of Oman and tour of Qatar this year. Two classical sprinting competitions. Bouhanni came out first 6 times and Demare 3 times. Bouhanni is also quite a bit more mature and has bigger victories than Demare in general. I think these odds should probably be -200 or even higher so looks like very good value to me.
- McLay vs Cimolai: Cimolai @+105/+101 $300 to win $310.38
Had to laugh at this bet. Cimolai joined the Dubai Tour (Cavendish rode there too) and he was top 15, 3 times in a sprint which is reasonably good. McLay on the other hand joined Tour San Luis and was >100 in almost every race. He also did not finish his latest 2 races. Also in the TT he was one of the 6 last guys to finish. Putting him as a favorite is rather laughable, so I am taking a bigger bet here.
- Nizzolo vs Coquard: Coquard @ +127/125 $118.74 to win $150
They both joined Star of Besseges last week. Coquard was ahead 3 times and Nizzolo once. Coquard even won one stage, where Nizzolo was second. So both are pretty equal, but I think Coquard is slightly better at the moment, so i happily take his odds as the dog.
- Jose Joaquin Rojas vs Hutarovich: Rojas @-101/103 $152.5 to win $150
Rojas went to both Tour of Qatar as the Tour of Oman and was almost always in the first 40 of the race, he even won one stage against Boonen, Demare, Sagan, Kristoff which is obviously a huge deal. Hutarovich preparation was in Gabon. Yes, he did win 3 stages there but there was of course zero competition. He also finished second to last in the TT today and I think he just not quite there yet. Making him a favorite over Rojas seems to be a big mistake to me.
Alright, best of luck to all!