[micase]

Well after the Cowboys somehow made my pre tournament prediction at the Auckland 9’s look good, I thought I’d
start my own thread for the coming NRL season.

A little background info on my betting, I do not have a model by which I come up with my predictions. I tend to stay away from totals but I love using a basic stats approach to work on prop bets while also making some intuitive line and h2h bets. Being a small time player I also like to take advantage of promotions and bonuses that Sportsbooks offer up during the season, I will try to post the good ones I see in here also.

Provided I find the time in the next week, I will write up a little preview of each teams season and how I see them performing this year but below are my preseason bets. A lot of these lines will most likely be stale as I hopped on several weeks ago but there are some more recent ones as well that I will highlight. For simplicities sake assume a 1 unit bet is $50.

Pre-Season

South Sydney Total Wins Middle

U18.5 Wins 11U @ $1.95 (Palmerbet)
O16.5 Wins 11.5U @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)

Risking 1.02U to win 20.5U

Palmerbet had up ridiculous odds for Souths to do what only a handful of the best teams of the past decade had
managed and record 19+ wins in a season. Having recorded 16 and 18 wins in the last two seasons, I’m pretty
happy with this one, I highly doubt they will go over the middle, going under is my main concern.

Halfway Season Leader (Sportsbet, Odds Still Available.)

1U @ $4.50 Sydney Roosters
0.5U @ $10 North Queensland Cowboys

I don’t normally like to hedge my bets but I could not split the two. Till round 13 the Roosters have in my
preseason ratings the softest schedule out of the Big 4 teams (Storm, Sea Eagles and Rabbitohs.) I also think theywill come out of the blocks a lot faster than last year, the team is largely unchanged only losing O’Donnell from the GF.

The Cowboys I like at that price as they have easily the softest schedule out of any of my predicted top 8 teams,
they do not face any of the Big 4 until R7 and are riding high on the back of the Auckland 9’s success. They have a perfect chance to build momentum against some fringe finals teams with a few almost gimmes playing the eels andtigers closer to round 13. I have the Cowboys as a chance at a top 4 spot with Melbourne looking weaker than recent years and Manly a little light on in the FRF position.

Regular Season Match Bet. (Winner.com Odds Still Available.)

Cowboys vs Bulldogs

2U on Cowboys @ $2.10

Bulldogs have what I see as a tougher schedule this season, they have lost Ben Barba among other players. Even though I am big on the Cowboys, a quick look at season wins O/U markets shows that this should be a 50/50 market at worst, $2.10 was too good a price to pass up.

Roosters Top Tryscorer. (Bookmaker.com.au, Odds still available.)

Daniel Tupou 1U @ $5

I think the main danger to this bet is Michael Jennings who looks to be in electric form with 3 tries against Wigan (Second Favourite at $2.40). Surprisingly Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is the favourite to take this out at $2.25 after only scoring 9 tries last season, Tupou bagging 14 and Jennings with 20. While Jennings at $2.40 is also tempting Tupou will only benefit from having him in great form and one of the Roosters pet plays in the back half of last season was to chip or kick a low bomb matching him up against a shorter winger. In the first 13 rounds he struggled only scoring 4 tries and botching a fair few from just being off the pace in his first full NRL season. The second half of the season including finals he had a strike rate of 10 tries from 15 games. I'll be hoping he improves on that strike rate even further this season.

Would love to hear any thoughts on any of these bets, hopefully it is a successful season for all of us and the quality of threads continues from last year. More to come...

[justkyle88]

Will follow 👍

[micase]

Round 1.

NZ Warriors vs Parramatta Eels.

NZ Warriors 1U @$1.72 (Bet365)

Once again I am a bit late on getting this up, the odds were taken just after the Warriors hammered the Broncos in their trial. Parra are going to have to do a lot more than the usual talk of their best preseason ever that usually happens this time of year. Odds of $1.68 can be found at Unibet while you can find odds of $1.65 at many of the usual bookmakers.

Will edit this post for any further round 1 bets.

[micase]

Adding to Round 1 as I can't seem to edit my above post.

Panthers vs Newcastle

Panthers Win 1U @ $1.80 (Betstar)

I think the loss of Mullen will be too big in the early rounds for Newcastle. While I don't rate Soward and Wallace particularly high in the pecking order of halves in the competition they have all the attacking weapons they need around them and the organisational ability to take advantage of them.

Dragons vs Tigers

Dragons win 1U @ $1.91 (Bet365)

I won't say this many times this season but the Dragons have a forward pack that can match their opposition this week. The tigers do have some class in Farah and Woods but the rest of their team looks very ordinary or have not been in first grade long at all. Anasta hasn't been a first grade quality half for years, they have Luke Brooks with 1 FG game at halfback while their defence last year was beyond terrible.

[justkyle88]

I have to disagree with your Dragons bet just because dugan is out with a knee injury. Its a tough game to pick either way especially early in the season. Looks like Luke Brooks is replacing Benji and anasta pulling on the 6 jersey.

I'm going West tigers.

[micase]

First middle of the season.

Cowboys vs Raiders

Totals Points

O40.5 @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)
U44 @ $1.90 (Bet365)

Risking 0.2U to win 3.6U if it hits 41,42 or 43 or 1.8U if it hits 44.

Another middle found,

New Zealand Warriors vs Parramatta Eels

Eels +4.5 4U @ $2.00 (winner.com)
Warriors -4 4U @ $2.00 (palmerbet or topsport or any others bookie that does $2 lines.)

Risking 0U to profit 4U if the warriors win by 4

[micase]

Sydney Roosters vs South Sydney Rabbitohs.

South Sydney Total Points Under 18

1U @ $1.90 (Bet365)

Most bookies have this line set at 17.5 but the extra half point at Bet365 makes a big difference. 3 Converted tries to push against the most miserly defensive team from last season/ recent memory is too much. Souths in the last 2 years have averaged ~13 points against top 4 defensive teams and with their first choice 5/8 Keary getting injured late in preseason will cause some issues bringing Walker in to replace him.

Adding another,


Sydney Roosters -3.5/ U38.5 Total Points Double.

0.5U @ $4 (TAB)

Looking for a tough grinding game of football, Roosters will get it in a close one.

[micase]

Not a good start to the season as a Roosters fan and a punter. It looks like it will take several weeks for them to get match fitness up after a shortened preseason and with SBW out for several weeks they could be vulnerable for the next few weeks.

Season Total 0-2 -1.5U

No real plays for this evenings game, I do have money on the $2 favourite special at Tom Waterhouse but no point really counting that in my record. Lots of arb/ middling opportunities on the multitude of totals/ handicap markets, just working on stats to sort through the +ve and -ve EV bets.

[micase]

Manly vs Melbourne

1st Half Total Middle

O17.5 Pts ($1.91 Bookmaker.com.au)
U18.5 Pts ($1.79 Sportsbet)

Approx 4U on each side, risking 0.6U to profit 6.6U.

18 first half points hits approximately 15-20% of the time, making this a decent bet. More to come...

[micase]

Live Bet for Newcastle vs Penrith

Total Points

U34.5 $2.00 (Centrebet)
O32.5 $1.92 (Sportsbet)

Risking 0.16U to profit 7.52U if 19 or 20 points are scored in the second half.

Get on it!

[micase]

Manly vs Melbourne Storm.

I'm going against what seems like the weight of money on this game (the line has kept drifting out.)

Melbourne Storm +6.5 1U @ $2.00 (Topsport)
Melbourne Storm to win 0.5U @ $2.92 (Pinnacle)

Like the previous games of the round I think this will be a tough grinding affair. No Cooper Cronk is a big loss but Ben Hampton has been groomed for well over a year to take over from Widdop and I think he will show a bit of class tonight. Sea Eagles very inexperienced up front and that is where I am hoping to Storm show their edge in this one.

[micase]

North Queensland vs Canberra

Cowboys -9.5 1U @ $1.87

Cowboys with too much class all across the park.

[micase]

My first of hopefully many days in the black, pretty disappointed with the Cowboys performance but the Storm fighting back against Manly was simply awesome (depending on which side you were on I guess.)

Season Record at completion of Saturday:

Overall Profit/loss: -0.7U
Picks: 3-3 +0.26U
Middles: 0-3 -0.96U

Not much luck with the middles so far but that is betting ~10-20% chances.

[micase]

First middle of the day,

Dragons vs Tigers

1H Total Points

U22 pts @ $1.90 (Palmerbet, Luxbet, some others)
O20.5 pts @ $2.10 (Bookmaker.com.au)

Approximately 6 units on each side, risking 0.03U to profit 6.6U if it hits 22, or 12.7U profit on the off chance it hits 21 pts.

[micase]

Half Time

Warriors to win $1.87 1U

Eels only manage 14 points with the all the field position and ball.

[micase]

Season Record at completion of Sunday

Overall Profit/loss: -1.82U
Picks: 4-5 -0.83U
Middles: 0-5 -0.99U

After trying to avoid the hype on some teams preseason and trying to make my own judgements, I seem to have found myself trapped by the Warriors. Like years past they are a team full of huge talent but also possess the ability to pull errors out of nowhere. Their back three can't catch contested high balls. Their front rowers can't hold the ball in tackles (looking at that afro haired prick) and their halves can lose all sense of control and throw cut out balls from side line taps that do not go to anyone. They will upset teams this year but right at the core of the Warriors is some voodoo spirit that will cause all these errors, penalties and lapses of judgement. I wouldn't call Matt Elliot a first grade quality coach, let alone a witch doctor so I will be taking a long look at any of their games in the future before betting on them.

Even when picking the Storm this has been a tough round of footy and not many people seem to be faring that well either so the work will continue!

[micase]

Cronulla vs Gold Coast

Total Points

Under 40 1U @ $1.91 (Bet365)

With Carney out I am expecting the Sharks to be a little disjointed in attack, while these two teams seem to have arm wrestle type matches in the last few years.

Sticking clear of the H2H/ line markets, if I had to pick I'd lean towards the Titans.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

I like it mate

[micase]

4 converted tries still required just to push our bet, the video ref seems to be answering our prayers as well TGM! You know you're on the right side when that gets awarded no try...

[Tim Gerry Mander]

If it stays close, then it should cash.
You're right though, that was a lucky call.

[micase]

Season Record at completion of Monday Night Football

Overall Profit/loss: -0.91U
Picks: 5-5 +0.08U
Middles: 0-5 -0.99U

First round out of the way and I have come through relatively unscathed. While extremely satisfied that Melbourne got up as outsiders, I took a great deal of confidence out of the Sharks-Titans Under 40 pick. Finishing off a round with a game that plays out how you expected it to is a great feeling.

Some general observations in my first week though is that I was trying too hard to make plays and while all my middles I believe were +ve EV plays some of my picks I think were made just to have a bit of action on a game. That is something I can't sustain during the season and will probably have to think about how I can stop this. If anyone has any ideas or tips that would be great, I am thinking along the lines of early in the week picking a few games I like the look of and the games that I will be sticking well clear of.

Anyway I appreciate any comments or tips or observations so feel free to post away

[snufflyjoe]

Season Record at completion of Monday Night Football

Overall Profit/loss: -0.91U
Picks: 5-5 +0.08U
Middles: 0-5 -0.99U

First round out of the way and I have come through relatively unscathed. While extremely satisfied that Melbourne got up as outsiders, I took a great deal of confidence out of the Sharks-Titans Under 40 pick. Finishing off a round with a game that plays out how you expected it to is a great feeling.

Some general observations in my first week though is that I was trying too hard to make plays and while all my middles I believe were +ve EV plays some of my picks I think were made just to have a bit of action on a game. That is something I can't sustain during the season and will probably have to think about how I can stop this. If anyone has any ideas or tips that would be great, I am thinking along the lines of early in the week picking a few games I like the look of and the games that I will be sticking well clear of.

Anyway I appreciate any comments or tips or observations so feel free to post away

I think this is something a lot of us struggle with! My main betting sport and passion is mma and having even a little bit on a fight even one I'm not exactly confident in makes me enjoy the fight that much more (a slippery slope I know)

If your one of these highly disciplined "sports investment" type punters you should be able to just pass on a match.

But i love the action myself and while ill normally drop 50 on a bet i like for action plays i may just bet 5\10 bucks.

I can only suggest lowering your stake for bets you aren't confident in. Personally for league I'll throw a tenner on a doubles market like the over/under plus a points spread if I'm not confident in a match up.

Just my 2 cents from a pretty undisciplined sports gambler. I'm sure one of the more sensible punters can offer you some tips.

[micase]

Round 2 Plays

Brisbane vs North Queensland

North Queensland -2 2U @ $2.00 (Topsport.)

I think the line is a bit too small here. Both teams while winning in Round 1 were not what I'd call impressive in those victories. I think the Broncos have been overrated by the bookies and their poor cohesion in the halves will show this weekend. North Queensland on the other hand while far from impressive have Thurston calling the shots and we saw what he was capable of last week.

Roosters vs Eels

Roosters -9.5 1U @ $1.91 (Betstar)

Once again I think the bookies have over estimated the quality of this Eels team. While their wingers looked great scoring 3 tries each, I was less than impressed with how Hopoate and Tonga performed in the centres. Losing their 80 minute hooker in Peats is also a big blow, their forwards will be having a hard enough battle without having to worry about someone new providing service. The Roosters while weakened by the loss of SBW have a wealth of talent in the back row and should be able to put the loss to Souths behind them.

More to come, also interested in the Panthers with points against Melbourne.

[micase]

Adding

Bulldogs vs Sharks

Dogs -6.5 1U @ $1.91 (Winner.com/ -7.5 at Bet365)

Hearing news that Todd Carney will be out this Monday, even if he plays though the Bulldogs forwards should be able to dominate this game.

Cowboys vs Broncos Special

Antonio Winterstein to score/ Nth Queensland to Win

0.5U @ $3.75 (Bookmaker.com.au)

A good correlated parlay if I have ever seen one. Not usually big on try scorer markets but I am big on Winterstein and the Cowboys this year.

[micase]

South Sydney vs Manly Middle

First Half Total Points

U19.5 @ $1.90 (Topsport, U18.5 Bet365)
O17.5 @ $1.90 (Centrebet)

Putting 6 units on each side, risking 0.6U to profit 10.8U. 18 or 19 hits 12% of games.

[micase]

Gold Coast Titans vs Wests Tigers Middle

1st Half Points
U24.5 @ $1.85 (Topsport)
O21.5 @ $1.91 (Bookmaker.com.au)

6U on each side, risking 0.74U to profit 10.36U