Geelong play their worst final in a long time (their lowest possession count in EIGHT years) and still were only possibly 2 seconds away from sending it to extra time. I haven't seen Geelong's midfield dominated like that in a long time.
I love AFL. Great sport. One rule I don't like = shots that go thru (but were TIPPED) only count 1. Doesn't make sense. That's like saying a Field Goal that's tipped shouldn't count, even if it goes thru. A goal should be 6, even if it's tipped.
It is a very different dynamic though. The fact that it is the ultimate mode of scoring means it needs to meet strict criteria (I usually compare this to a try in rugby as I don't know NFL well; they need to keep control, can't have multiple movements, it can't come off someone else, etc.), whereas if the ball goes through for a behind (the only minor scoring option) then it doesn't matter what or whom it came off (as a touched/tipped field goal wouldn't).
The hawks have had the week off and are primed to launch their bid for back-to-back premierships. The hawks have a habit of playing close prelim finals in recent times, and despite port's upset win against freo, they are good enough to be a top 4 side in most seasons. I expect them to make this a tough contest, but ultimately the hawks should prevail. They are the better side on paper, they get to play at home, are rested and in form. port have struck some form, but will have a few more km's in the legs after travelling to just run down the dockers. I like the hawks 1-39 for 1 unit.
Hawks almost fell over at the end, but just did enough to hold on!
Finals Week 3: 1-0 +1.25 units
YTD: 44-4-47 +3.87 units
With 2 futures plays running, there are 2.5 units currently staked, so there is a guaranteed profit to this point in time. With a 10 unit payout if the hawks win next week (more if Ablett wins the brownlow), there is a possibility to hedge out, which I may consider during the week. I may also post some brownlow medal plays if time permits.
I think the line is fairly sharp for the grand final, so not many plays for me. Will have a bit of a hedge out of the Hawthorn year bet:
Grand Final
Play #1 - Sydney Win, $1.63 X 5.5 units (Beteasy)
With 2 units on the hawks @ $5, this ensures a profit on the grand final. So, we can use some of those guaranteed profits to try and make this season's result a reasonable one:
Play #2 - Norm Smith Medal: J Kennedy, $8.50 X 1 unit (Beteasy)
Having trouble quoting, but with the grand final bets and 2 other season bets:
Remaining bets: 1-3 +0.85 units
YTD: 45-4-50 +4.72 units
Despite a tough middle patch, the year ends in profit. My time was chewed up, so I struggled to make many plays through the second half of the year. I will hopefully be back, but time issues will bite me again next season I fear. I will atempt to add an ROI at some time if possible.
Well done to the hawks and to everyone who had a good season!
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