Part fashion show, part cocktail party and part horse race, the Academy Awards holds its annual event this Sunday in Hollywood.
America's annual Academy Awards have been likened to a high stakes Thoroughbred race and right now the steam horse for Best Picture appears to be Little Miss Sunshine.
Oddsmakers Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hilton and John Avello of Wynn Las Vegas agree the modestly-budgeted, independent flick out of last year's Sundance Festival is gaining momentum as the five nominees enter the stretch run leading up to Sunday night's Hollywood awards ceremony.
State statutes prohibit Nevada bet shops from accepting wagers on non-sporting events, so odds are for entertainment purposes only, though many offshore books do take Oscar bets; in fact, the Academy Awards are the only thing some people bet on all year.
Little Miss Sunshine, which has been tagged a road comedy, features an ensemble cast and relates the story of a dysfunctional family obsessed with winning that travels in a minivan from Albuquerque to Redondo Beach, CA, so a 7-year-old daughter can pursue her dreams at the Little Miss Sunshine Pageant.
The family learns, however, that much wisdom can be gained through losing.
"Sunshine is a nice little film," said Kornegay, who first formulated Oscar odds when he headed Imperial Palace betting operation and was asked to provide them this year for Internet site Moviefone. "It's not a big production, but it does have very realistic characters.
"It's just a good movie."
Avello said simply, "I like Little Miss Sunshine best," while noting it has been three decades since a comedy last won (Annie Hall in 1977) the best picture category.
Little Miss Sunshine was considered an outsider when odds went up last month, opening at 10/1. Kornegay this week lowered the number to 4/1, after the film scored several other major awards.
"I wouldn't call it a long shot, but there's good value there," he observed.
The two Las Vegas bookmakers concur, however, that the Best Picture race remains wide open, with Martin Scorcese's The Departed currently listed as a 2/1 favorite.
"I've seen them all and wouldn't be shocked if any of them won, even Letters," Avello declared, referring to Clint Eastwood's Letters from Iwo Jima, the true long shot at 25/1.
"It's as close as I can remember." There are a lot of opinions out there," Kornegay added. "Some people like The Queen at 7/1."
The other Best Picture nominee is Babel which opened as a frontrunner but faded to 7/2 this week.
Kornegay and Avello also agree the nigh's best bet is Helen Mirren, whose performance in The Queen, about England's royal family, has earned rave reviews and every Best Actress award on the horizon.
"There's no doubt she's the biggest favorite," said Kornegay who opened Mirren at 2/5 and lowered the number to 1/7 this week.
"She's head and shoulders above everyone else," Avello declared, who had Mirren at 1/9.
Best Director basically boils down to a battle between Tinseltown veterans Eastwood and Scorcese, who has been nominated previously but never won the gold statue. Eastwood previously beat out Scorcese's Howard Hughes epic The Aviator with Million Dollar Baby.
"Clint is Mr. Academy Awards," Kornegay said. "He knows exactly what the Academy wants and looks for. He's always the favorite.
"The big drawback for him this year, though, is that Letters has subtitles. Martin, on the other hand, went back to his roots in The Departed, the Mobster scene and all. Looking at the stars in Departed, I'd say Martin finally will win one, but it's going to be close.
"If he (Scorcese) walks away empty-handed, that means he will never get it," Avello noted.
Kornegay says movie-goers looking for an outsider with a decent chance might want to consider United 93 director Paul Greengrass at 8/1.
"He won the British equivalent of the Oscar, so he's worth looking at," Kornegay pointed out.
While Avello annually fashions Oscar odds, relying on a vast network of "insiders" for input, Kornegay hasn't done it for several years. When he was approached by Moviefone to make odds this year, Kornegay decided it would be fun.
"The only thing is it's very time consuming," he said. "You have to do a lot of research because you don't want the odds to be bogus. You want them to be true odds and a reflection of what you think."
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