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Geelong v Sydney @ the SCG
AFL
Friday Night Footy - Sydney v Geelong @ the SCG
Key In's & Out's
Sydney - Shaw out.
Geelong - Varcoe out. Kelly in?
Defence -
Maybe the slightest of edges to Sydney, although they are missing two of their permanents from the AFL's best defensive unit in Johnson and Shaw. Johnson has been covered to some extent with LRT moving down back to fill his role, but it's hard to cover the run out of HB and the precision kicking of Shaw who is usually the key link between defence and the midfield. Mattner often filled this role for Adelaide and may need to step up for this game, although Malceski is also a great kick and has been in very nice form so there are definitely options available. The spine of the Swans defensive unit in Richards and Grundy will probably cover the Cats two behemoths in Hawkins and the J-Pod and while man-child tomahawk is an unenviable match-up for 95% of defenders in the comp, All-Australian Teddy can shut anyone down on his day although the Swans may opt to play the bigger body of Grundy on the Tomahawk. The Cats have their own defensive linchpin in Harry Taylor and are also one of the best defences in the comp with rock solid Joel Corey & Corey Enright and the run out of HB from Taylor Hunt and Mackie. In fact over the last 9 years of the comp the Swans and the Cats have between them played in 7 of the 9 GF's and won 5 of the 9 flags and throughout that time have clearly been the best two defences in the competition. Due to the loss of Johnson and Shaw for the Swannies you can barely split the two defences.
Conclusion - Pretty much even.
Midfield -
Clear advantage to the Swans. When people talk best midfields in the comp, it is pretty much just the Pies, Tigers and maybe the Hawks that get mentioned, however if you examine the Swans midfield core of Jack, O'Keefe, Jetta and Parker you will find a midfield as good as any in the AFL.
O'Keefe speaks for himself, All-Australian, Norm Smith Medalist, best & fairest winner, represented VIC and AUS. He is big, strong, super fit and he kick's goals and most importantly he is a big game player.
Jack - Captain of the premiership winning Swans at 25. Has evolved from a strong tagger to an emerging superstar of the comp. Last week played on The great man himself (Ablett) and didn't just break even with Gazza, he owned him. He has also done this to Chris Judd and other greats of the game. Super fit, will run a game out always.
Lewis Jetta - X-factor. His run and carry is second to only Patty Dangerfield in the entire comp and he is easily one of the quickest players in the entire AFL. Bizarrely after starting his career with 19 consecutive behinds, he is now one of the most accurate kicks in the comp, and is a threat from anywhere inside 60m kicking amazing goals on the run.
Parker - Jude Bolton clone. Young hard nut who doesn't miss tackles and will get in and under in any contest regardless of the circumstances. Only 20 but already an emerging star as he enters his third season.
Throw in appearances in the midfield by the comp's #1 contested possession winner in Joey Kennedy, Adam Goodes (I don't think anything needs to be said about Goodes), NAB rising star winner and proven big game player Hannebery and hard nuts Bolton and McVeigh and you have IMO not just a midfield equal to Richmonds and Collingwoods but the best midfield in the AFL. Of course because they hail from the Rugby League dominated city of Sydney the Swans as always fly under the radar despite being the current premiers.
Most important of all - Every single Sydney midfielder kicks goals, usually when they rotate through the forward line for a rest they pinch a goal or two while they are up there, or when they run their vaunted slingshot attack out of their defensive end of the ground and you have almost an entire team of gut-runners streaming towards their forward 50.
Geelong with the likes of Joel Selwood (sensational hard ball get player - second only to Joey Kennedy), the always classy Jimmy Bartel, the freak that is Stevie J and their up and coming guns in Christenson, Motlop, Smedts, etc also have a fabulous midfield and actually they are probably the most similar side to Sydney in the entire comp, they feature a multitude of in and under types and gut runners, they like to move the ball quickly out of defence on the counter attack (Varcoe will be sorely missed here) and they love to play 1 on 1 contested footy as do the Swans. They are also probably the only team in the comp that can match the Swans as far as hard bodied, hard tackling, in and under contested dog fights - for example Sydney and Geelong are the only two teams in the AFL that actually gain an advantage over their opposition when it starts raining (regardless of the opposition) and things get messy.
Having said all that there is just a little more speed, a little more size and significantly more depth in the Swannes midfield.
Conclusion - Advantage Swans.
Forward Line -
IMO Geelong have close to the best forward line in the comp with the man-child-beast Tommy Hawkins, the always reliable big J-Pod, a legend of the modern game in Stevie J and the hard as nails Chapman, who although past his peak, was so good that he still remains one of the elite small forwards in the game. Throw in the speedy and dangerous Motlop and the reliable West and you have a really really good forward line, second only to probably Hawthorn and a healthy West Coast list. The Swans have a very versatile forward line with no key forward target until Tippett arrives in round 13+ otherwise the legendary Adam Goodes (although significantly past his peak) and the potentially great Sam Reid provide the tall targets with a bunch of dangerous crumbers and goal sneaks in McGlynn, Bolton, McVeigh (beautiful kick) and Hannebery and the surprisingly reliable kick (and excellent mark) in Canadian giant Mike Pyke. The Swans strength is that they don't have to rely on any one player to get their goals as literally everybody on the team forward of their defensive 50 chips in, whereas the Cats have a more traditional forward setup with the two big targets surrounded by a dangerous mix of crumbers and SF's.
Conclusion - Advantage Cats.
Ruck -
The Cat's picked up the talented but often injured Hamish Mcintosh from the 'Roos to help solve their massive deficit in the Ruck and surprise surprise he is out injured leaving inexperienced rookie Blicavs battling the hardened premiership winning duo of Mumford and Pike who both are significantly larger. Geelong stupidly gave Mumford to the Swans for virtually nothing, handing the swans a complete gift in the wake of Darren Jolly's departure for Collingwood. Mumford has grown into one of the best ruck man in the comp and now has a very solid back-up in Pyke giving the Swannies one of the better 1-2 ruck duos in the AFL. The Cats on the other hand, I don't even know who they will use as their back-up, often Stevie-J (who can literally do anything) otherwise maybe Lonergan? Regardless the Cats are currently one of the weakest clubs in the AFL in the ruck department (although I should mention young Blicavs does look very talented) and will probably get little "first use" ball at stoppages. There is also talk that Blicavs could be rested this week, further weakening the Cats ruck department.
Conclusion - Significant advantage Swans
Summary
Both the Swans and the Cats are undefeated to start the season, the Cats with three very immpressive come from behind wins in a row and the Swans with a couple of wins over easy-beats GWS & GC to start the season, where they did not look overly impressive and simply did enough to win, followed by an emphatic win against North last w/e, where they trailed by 14 at H/T before blitzing the 'Roos in the 3rd with an 11 goal quarter sending a message to the entire comp in the process as they ran out easy 39 point winners in a game most people had the 'Roos getting up in. The game is at the SCG where the Swans are often close to unbeatable, although the Cats have played well there in the past and do enjoy a good record at the SCG; again it is worth mentioning how similar both these sides are when they both enjoy playing on the smaller confines of the SCG (smallest ground in footy) where it comes down to hard ball gets, first use and winning the contested possession counts. Expect Geelong to get dominated in the centre bounce and stoppages with the Mummy/Pyke duo just two much for rookie Blicavs and some part timer, and whilst Geelong have plenty of players capable of winning their own ball at stoppages regardless of the tap (Selwood, Bartel, etc), Sydney has just as many (Kennedy, O'Keefe, Jack & co). Considering the Mummy/Pike duo monstered North's last week in the 2nd Half allowing the Swans midfielders to win the 2nd Half clearances 20-10, not a good sign for the Cats who have struggled with winning contested possession counts this year and are already 65 contested possessions behind the Swans after a mere three games. Sydney is No.1 in the league for contested possessions and No.3 for clearances; Geelong 10th and 18th respectively.
The Cats will have less space than they’d like on the tight SCG and are coming off their third consecutive six-day break. Sydney have cruised through the opening couple of rounds before dispatching the 'Roos in a blitzkrieg 3rd Q last week that had 16 other teams taking notes. Despite their history of playing close matches (especially at the SCG) this is a vastly different Swans team to the one we have seen over the last decade and the scary thing is they are continuing to get better whereas Geelong is simply trying to maintain at a high level they have been at for a long time and are probably plateau-ing. The Cats have given up early leads in all three of their matches so far and I am not convinced if they give up a significant lead to the Swans they will be able to reel them back in this week, especially at the SCG where the Swannies are the master of shutting the game down (if they so choose to). Sydney's dominance in the ruck and contested possessions should allow them significantly more first use ball and I expect them to establish an early lead which Geelong will once again work at reigning in after HT. Ultimately I think they will fall short and the Swans will win by 2-3 goals.
Note - Of course the Cats will probably have been focusing on their slow starts all week, however on the flip side so will the Swans be aware of this and have been preparing for perhaps a quicker starting Geelong.
Swans 1st Quarter m/l ($1.73 Sportsbet) 1.5*
Swans 1st Half -4.5 ($1.90 Sportsbet) 1*
Swans -7.5 ($1.93 Bet 365) 2*
swordsandtequila gave sando 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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