[sando]

Ok I'm excited as there is a really nice run of International Tests coming up through to the end of the year. I have just come off a moderately succesful ITM cup season (NZ domestic rugby competition) and have been running well in my NBA/Tennis thread, so am going to post some picks as I find games I like over the next month through to Dec 1st. Picks will be mainly ATS and the occasional total, from my experience betting rugby prop bets are a waste of time and it's best to just keep things simple.

Unit size will be 1-3 Units

*prices will only be taken from pinnacle or Sportingbet (my two current favorite books). I will provide prices in both US and decimal currencies to make it easy for everyone. This is the current schedule below.

(home team is always listed on the left) International Match
Saturday 10th November
International Match
14:30	England vs Fiji
14:30	Wales vs Argentina
15:00	Italy vs Tonga
17:30	Ireland vs South Africa
20:00	France vs Australia
Sunday 11th November
14:30	Scotland vs New Zealand
Friday 16th November
19:30	Wales vs Samoa
Saturday 17th November
14:00	Italy vs New Zealand
14:30	England vs Australia
14:30	Scotland vs South Africa
17:30	Ireland A vs Fiji
Saturday 24th November
14:00	Ireland vs Argentina
14:30	England vs South Africa
15:00	Scotland vs Tonga
17:00	France vs Samoa
17:15	Wales vs New Zealand
18:00	Italy vs Australia
Saturday 1st December
14:30	England vs New Zealand
14:30	Wales vs Australia

First picks will be released within 24 hours...

[SlickRick1382]

Woot, got a new thread to follow

[benandjerry]

Dont know too much about rugby but do enjoy it so looking forward to more insight. GL!

[sando]

Wales v Argentina (Millenium Stadium - Cardiff)

Argentina +10.5 (-115, $1.87 - Sportingbet) 2x

*You need to act quick as this line is moving against us. -10.5 is a very significant line in union (just like NFL) and I would not reccomend taking this below 10. Scoring in union is 7 for a converted try and 3 for a penalty or field goal. There are alot more 3 point plays in union than in NFL and this line is key at the -10.5 (even if you have to pay a tad more juice)

Analysis coming soon...

[CollegePro]

fukc,.. +9.5 @ heritage and I can't buy the point.. so I will pass

[fitguy67]

gud luk on the new thread

[SlickRick1382]

5 Dimes has it at +10 -115 for anyone who is still looking

[sando]

Argentina may be better known for soccer but there is a massive Rugby following in the country and it is growing constantly. Argentinas has steadily risen through the ranks of International Rugby by sending their players to Europe and South Africa to play in the high level domestic competitions that you cannot find at home where Rugby is still an amatuer sport. Anyway it has been working as they were recently accepted into the Rugby Championship (formerly tri-nations) the world's premiere Rugby tournament where they got to play a home and away series against the big guns of world rugby (NZ, Aus and SA). Everyone expected Argentina to fold like a cheap suit, however they ran Aus close in both matches and should have stolen the match in Aus on the Gold Coast where they led 19-6 at one point (from memory?). They drew against South Africa and had one acceptable showing aginst the All Blacks. Only in 1 game did they get crushed by the All Blacks, however NZ dishes these hidings out on a regular basis, Aus and Ireland have also both copped touch ups recently from the All blacks. All in all a very succesful first season playing "with the big boys". For the last two years Wales has been the premiere team in Europe and I do expect them to win this game, but 10.5 is alot to cover against a big hard grinding and passionate team and there are some solid reasons why I like Argentina in this spot.

-Argentina are in form having recently completed the Rugby Championship competition.
-Argentinma are relatively injury free and have recalled a couple of hard nose veterans who will help stabilise the back line, in particular Felipe Contemponi and Juan Martin Hernandez.
-Wales are out of season and haven't played a meanigful game in 5 months.
-Wales have some big names out of this game through injury (Adam Jones, Dan Lydiate, Jonathan Davies. Ryan Jones)

Wales do have some scary mo-fo's in their team, but it's funny as Argentina plays a European style of Rugby, behind their big forwards, playing for territory and forcing penalties through pressure at the break down and all across the ground, where as the modern Wales team plays a lot flashy than is typical in European rugby (more a Southern Hamisphere style) and why not with game breakers like George North, Sam Warbuton, Leigh Halfpenny.

[RLF]

I'm liking the draw in this match, I can see it being 16 all.

[sando]

I'm liking the draw in this match, I can see it being 16 all.

16-16 The score in the recent SA-Argentina match...

[Duff85]

Yeah I took the Argies as well, got them +10.5 -110 at Sportingbet this morning.

Also got England-30.5 (-110) Sportingbet and Italy -8.5 (-110) Sportsbet - because i'm an epic sqaure.

[sando]

Yeah I took the Argies as well, got them +10.5 -110 at Sportingbet this morning.

Also got England-30.5 (-110) Sportingbet and Italy -8.5 (-110) Sportsbet - because i'm an epic sqaure.

Got no interest in Italy v Tonga, but yeah England should crush Fiji, the question is simply by how much?

[sando]

Australia V France (Stade de France - Paris)

Wallabies +3.5 (+101, $2.01 - Pinnacle) 1x
Wallabies m/l (+154, $2.54 - Pinnacle) 1x

*Yes I am an Aussie, but it means nothing as we are in the business of making money not being sentimental. For example I faded Australia ruthlessly through the recent Rugby Championships and I'm also a die hard Lakers fan who looks for a chance to fade them on an almost daily basis.

Can't be ****** with a big write up on this one sorry.

-Les Blues like Wales are in their off season and have not played meaningful game for 5 months.
-Wallabies have had a poor year by their lofty standards and key injuries to Beale, Genia, Pocock, Iaone and that traitor Cooper have not helped, BUT the Wallabies have been great in their last 2 matches, winning as a dog in Argentina when all the money was flooding in for the Pumas (Aus from -120 into +125) and in their last match they ended NZ's amazing 18 match winning streak (albeit with a draw).
- Wallabies have a nice record against France, both home and away.

2010:Australia won 59-16 in Paris
2009: Australia won 22- 6 in Sydney
2008: Australia won 18-13 in Paris
2008: Australia won 40-10 in Brisbane
2008: Australia won 34-13 in Sydney

[SlickRick1382]

Looks like they are moving hard from that -10 as well. I got less than an hour or so ago at -115 and it's now at +9.5 for 115

Sando moving lines !!!!

[SlickRick1382]

Just to help out those with multiple books get the best line.

Bovada has Australia at +4.5 for -110 (not sure if those extra points even matter in Rugby, need to research key numbers on sides)

Their ML sucks though and is 15 cents higher on 5 Dimes

[RLF]

Nice to see you on Aus mate, I've gone big on them as well. Can't see how on earth France score points with their side. Aus defence top notch atm and goal kicking excellent which will tick over the scoreboard.

Even looking at the history France struggle to get over 15 points. Will play France's team total under as well.

[ThaBigG]

Good luck bro! I'm also backing the Wallabies +3.5 . Can't stand Beale but hopefully he gets me the $$

[sando]

Nice to see you on Aus mate, I've gone big on them as well. Can't see how on earth France score points with their side. Aus defence top notch atm and goal kicking excellent which will tick over the scoreboard.

Agreed and the Frenchies are not exactly famous for their discipline haha.


"Good luck bro! I'm also backing the Wallabies +3.5 . Can't stand Beale but hopefully he gets me the $$"

I wish he would shave that damn mo off. On a serious note do you have a lean on your boys -25 against Scotland tomorrow?

[RLF]

I'd back the Scotland HT cap and NZ 2nd half cap if offered. That's usually how NZ go against these weaker teams. Scots will come out fired up and play well and NZ will run over the top of them in the 2nd.

[ThaBigG]

Not too sure yet with the AB's -26.5. Especially with Ben Smith playing centre and Tamati Ellison inside him.
Ill have to look further into it. Might see what what the weather is up to over there and look into the game total

[sando]

Last Pick today...

South Africa v Ireland (Aviva Stadium, Dublin)

Springboks (SA) -5.5 (Evens, $2.00) 1.5x

*Sorry no time for a write up got to get to work boys...

[sando]

RLF and ThaBigG thanks for the insight lads, please feel free to post anything at all, including your own plays (if you so choose) the more Rugby heads the better.

[Duff85]

Just to help out those with multiple books get the best line.

Bovada has Australia at +4.5 for -110 (not sure if those extra points even matter in Rugby, need to research key numbers on sides)

Their ML sucks though and is 15 cents higher on 5 Dimes

My research surprisingly pointed to there being no real key numbers in Rugby Union. I have each half point being worth around 4 cents. Games seem to equally land on being decided 4,5,6, or 7 - the most common results of all games. Granted the data i've used is from Super Rugby, I haven't looked into international rugby.

[davopnz]

I prefer Wales with the closed roof...Wales are the 2nd most conditioned side in the world behind the all blacks, with a closed roof they'll be able to play their up tempo game and run argentina in the ground which will result in a late collapse.

also prefer france here...top 14 rugby is at an extremely high level and there are a lot of standout frenchies. they have nothing to lose...rugby in france is buzzing, it's a new era and it's exciting. they will go into this with no pressure on them and i expect them to have a blinder, they have a great mix between youth and age. why else would the bookies set france as favourites with all the players they're missing and the wallabies coming off a draw with the men in black?

just my 2c.

do like the saffa pick

[usfunca]

Awesome. Looking forward to the ruggers picks.

[Crowing Capers]

PUMAS 17-12 60th min.

[sando]

Argentina +10.5 cashes easy, in fact they won the game.

1-0 great start.

[Duff85]

I prefer Wales with the closed roof...Wales are the 2nd most conditioned side in the world behind the all blacks, with a closed roof they'll be able to play their up tempo game and run argentina in the ground which will result in a late collapse.

also prefer france here...top 14 rugby is at an extremely high level and there are a lot of standout frenchies. they have nothing to lose...rugby in france is buzzing, it's a new era and it's exciting. they will go into this with no pressure on them and i expect them to have a blinder, they have a great mix between youth and age. why else would the bookies set france as favourites with all the players they're missing and the wallabies coming off a draw with the men in black?

just my 2c.

do like the saffa pick

Yeah i'm riding the Saffas and Frogs with you.

[RLF]

France have a weak pack. They are not the side from the WC. Even in the 6N with a better side they lost to Ireland and France at home. They'll struggle to get over 15 points. Wallabies should get 20+ with their excellent goal kicking.

[Duff85]

None of you fukks sleep Saturday night either?

I went to bed but got back up.

[nosaij]

who needs sleep when you can gamble hahhahaha

[RLF]

Argentina will become a top 4 side now they're in TRC. Should constantly beat England, France, Wales etc.

[davopnz]

I love the french pack in this game personally.

Also Michaelak is just a good of a kicker as Beale/Harris + He can nail drop goals

[RLF]

No Dusautoir and Harinordoquy. Bonnaire and Servat just retired. Maestri ruled out. Ouedraogo and Nyanga are too light.

Same Wallaby pack minus Higginbotham that matched it with the ABs 3 weeks ago. Aus scrum probably superior.

[davopnz]

That was a pitiful game by the all blacks, 9/10 that wallabies pack would get owned.

Look for Pape/Picomoles/Szarzewski to step.

I like what Nyanga and Ouedraogo bring to the table.