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AFL Grand Final question:
Hawthorn were favourites to with the GF for a number of weeks in futures betting. I assume a lot of that money that went to Hawthorn has caught up and affected the lines for the GF...? If that's the case, value is with Sydney.
I myself think Sydney will win. I find the 13.5 really odd, 14.5 on pinnacle. Futures betting would explain this, if the above is the correct assumption.
Feel free to give your opinion, I want to learn from this.
I'd be surprised if books took this into account, I think they are more interested in balancing money on a specific game. For every person backing Hawthorn I'm sure there as many backing the outsiders.
I think the Bloods win too, however I also realise that Hawthorn could have won by 30+ against Adelaide if they had kicked half straight or if Adelaide hadn't taken pretty much every single chance they were given.
For me the best bet is Swans 1H, they have been very shaky in the 4th this year. I think they will need to be 2-3 goals up at least to with-hold a late Hawks barrage.
Wouldn't the public money be persuading the number? Probably still alot of rec punters getting on the hawks, there is always less sharps. It's by no means a given hawks game, Hodge missing against Adelaide showed how unbalanced they were without him. He is the difference. The swans look healthier coming into the grand final. No one knows anything until they know the ins and outs. The line will probably change its most noticeable by Thursday night and should stick . lets see what happens.
Swans 1-39 in low scoring, brutal encounter !!!
At this early stage the smart money is clearly with Sydndey
I don't get the big push for the swans. As much as I'd love them to win, the hawks have had a chance to let the nerves get the better of them, and still came up with the win. I don't see the hawks losing, and the swans have a big question mark at the G. Hawks easily for mine, but I'll wait for the Sydney money to keep coming first!
I'm all over Hawks here, I can understand why people might like the Swans but the Hawks have the a far superior forward line. If Hawks midfield win the clearances the Swans will get done. I expect the Swans will want to slow the pace of the game down and get back in numbers but the longer the ball stays inside 50 for the hawks the more Rioli, Buddy and Breust will come into the game. Should be a cracker but I tip the Hawks to win by 30.
GL guys
Total points 176. Under seems good bet as weather forecast set at 14 degrees Celsius rain and hail. What do guys think. Sydney do play well in the rain.
Interesting, might be another clue that it'll be a tight game. Hawks will have players that can handle wet weather too you would think. If it'll definitely rain for around half the match then I like the under.Originally Posted by Emerson
Edited bit: But hang on, don't you want to watch the Grand Final? I'd hate to watch it betting the under.
I'm taking Sydney with the points and the under I think. Weather is supposed to be dreadful so I'm hoping for a lot of slip and slide action. I never have much faith in the Swans away from the SCG but I'm still going to go with my gut here.
Rain no longer forecast. I'd feel extremely hesitant backing swans, even at the line. Also I'd take the over if I had to pick. Hawks have the potential to blow Sydney out. Sydney won't be able to enforce their brand of footy on the hawks at the G; it is far too large. I'll take hawks at the line & HU in some parlays
I'm going to be on the Swans plus whatever it closes at, unless it moves back to 13.5, in which case I'll take that.
Only for a unit so I can have some action while watching it.
I had a dream this morning that the Swans had won the Grand Final and that it was a given, saw visions of them celebrating. It looked like a sunny day. LRT won the Norm Smith.
If the Swans win, I'll continue my dream reports.
Last edited by Lookingtostart; 09-26-12 at 12:34 AM.
Wow. Interested seeing a lot of you guys on the Bloods! I thought I would be in the minority. I love the Bloods in this spot. Will have a write up in my thread over next couple of days
Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers with local hail and thunder. Winds northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h tending westerly 25 to 40 km/h during the morning.
Where are you getting that weather forecast from? My neighbours have already rearranged their party to indoors as it's definitely calling for rain and hail.
Sportsbet have Swans +14.5 & 177.5 for the total. If you like the under, TAB's offering 180.5.
I am actually thinking the under 150 at 4.60.
If the rain comes this will be into 3.00 can then hedge out to match score up to 190 maybe
Don't ask me where but it hasn't failed before :P
Now it's looking like no rain and only partly cloudy throughout the game.
LRT could have won the Norm Smith, but still,I had a dream this morning that the Swans had won the Grand Final and that it was a given, saw visions of them celebrating. It looked like a sunny day. LRT won the Norm Smith.
If the Swans win, I'll continue my dream reports.
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