[moses millsap]

Any value with BJ Penn? UFC experts?

Ultimate Fighting Championships 63: UFC Lightweights
Sat 9/23 Jens Pulver vs Joe Lauzon
07:00 PM 57 Jens Pulver -700
58 Joe Lauzon +630
Sat 9/23 Melvin Guillard vs Gabe Ruediger
07:00 PM 59 Melvin Guillard -149
60 Gabe Ruediger +139
Ultimate Fighting Championships 63: UFC Middleweights
Sat 9/23 Mike Swick vs David Loiseau
07:30 PM 53 Mike Swick -135
54 David Loiseau +125
Ultimate Fighting Championships 63: UFC Prelims - Lightweights
Sat 9/23 Roger Huerta vs Jason Dent
05:00 PM 61 Roger Huerta -575
62 Jason Dent +525
Sat 9/23 Jorge Gurgel vs Danny Abbadi
05:00 PM 63 Jorge Gurgel -660
64 Danny Abbadi +600
Sat 9/23 Tyson Griffin vs David Lee
05:00 PM 65 Tyson Griffin -580
66 David Lee +530
Ultimate Fighting Championships 63: UFC Welterweights
Sat 9/23 B.J. Penn vs Matt Hughes
08:00 PM 51 B.J. Penn +196
52 Matt Hughes -216

[Illusion]

I forgot this was even on Saturday. I better start looking into these matches. I will have to get back with you OWNED.

[scottyy11]

owned what would be your best bets from this ? top 2-3 you like?

thanks

[moses millsap]

I don't know anything about UFC, or at least not enough to make wagers on them. All the ones I watch usually see the chalk cashing at like at 90% clip. Great action though.

BJ looked pretty out of shape when they interviewed him during the Lidell/Sabrol fight, but so did Ricky Hatton before he took Kostya to school.

[onlooker]

Im not big on the UFC myself OWNED. So I cant help you here. Good luck on whatever you bet.

[moses millsap]

I'm not going to bet it at all, if anything, I might throw some free play money on Penn, but that's it. I wouldn't be surprised if every chalk came through (as always).

[shady610]

The crow is a very good bet

[goldengoat]

bj penn is a better fighter than matt hughes as crazy as that seems

the tricky thing is that hughes prepares himself better for fights and I am speaking specifically in the cardio department

at this level a fighter in a close fight such as this can lose a fight primarily cause he ran out of gas especially in a 5 round championship match

here is my breakdown
standup penn
wrestling hughes
submission penn
cardio hughes

assuming both guys come in in the exact same cardio shape then i take bj no question

bj can win via submission or tko from strikes
hughes can win via decision via controlling position and using ground and pound

i have heard conflicting reports on bj's preparation, 1 that he is working on his cardio but doesn't wanna spar a ton of rounds like he has done before in order to not get "burnt out" (this scares me), and 2 that he is already below 170 and has his cardio in order

if you want wait for the weighins to check out bj's condition but remember he is never the most cut guy

i am taking bj still but will not go bigger til the weighins

[goldengoat]

Gabe Ruediger is a more technical fighter than melvin and usually technique wins especially on the ground

melvin is a frekish athlete who could win via strikes or cut but i'll take ruediger.....ruediger has questioned melvin's intelligence though which is prolly gonna fire melvin up even more which can be both good and bad (I would only make a small play on this though cause melvin is very explosive)

swick is the more complete fighter than loiseau but loiseau has perhaps the best elbows in all of mma and elbows cut people bad so anytime he fights you have to factor in he can win via cut which kinda sux and makes it hard to lean against him a lot

i still like swick though, the guy is a motivated professional with some good skill with his only flaw being a suspect chin which the crow is capable of testing.....swick has the advantage on thr ground assuming the crow is not throwing elbows

pulver and griffin should win easy

Abbadi sux bad on the ground but has good standup.....if the fight were all standup the value for him is great.....gurgel trains with rich franklin who is a very smart fighter so he would be wise to increase his odds and take it to the ground....gurgel has B- takedowns and Abbadi has C- takedown defense so I say no play here cause gurgel will prolly win unless it stays standing were it is 50/50

[moses millsap]

Thanks for the analysis GG; I usually just watch UFC for entertainment. So, you're saying BJ typically always looks like that? (a little on the soft side )

[goldengoat]

ya bj is never gonna come to the ring ripped

kinda makes gauging his cardio tough but you can get a little bit of an idea

i gotta think he will be ready cause over the last year the top name fighters are starting to make good money whereas the bottom guys get jacksh*t

if he beats hughes then he is gonna be in line for some endorsements and a lot of money although he grew up rich so maybe that won't motivate him as much as it would someone else

the belt means more i'm sure

i hope hughes tries to stand with bj cause he will get his face lit up

hughes can score a lot of juding points on takedowns though which is the only reason bj lost to st pierre so if bj loses that is what gonna get him

[moses millsap]

GG, Did you read about Huerta's injury? Some of the slower books still have that line up, though nothing is a lock, there is definitely value on Dent now.

[goldengoat]

GG, Did you read about Huerta's injury? Some of the slower books still have that line up, though nothing is a lock, there is definitely value on Dent now.

i don't know much about that fight

i am staying away

Lambert can beat Evans

Evans is a decision machine and likes to win via superior wrestling and controlling instead of trying to win the fight

that's gonna catch up to him

[goldengoat]

pretty bad day today

most favorites win again as usual except for pulver which is a major blow to his career

[moses millsap]

Stupid BJ Penn wasn't in shape again. If he had trained for 3 rounds at least, I think he would've ended Hughes since he dominated the first two. Some pretty good knockouts though including that last shot by Eddie Sanchez. That stomach blow by Guillard was sweet as well.

[shady610]

I loved seeing penn lose since he thinks that his ability alone will get him by.

[moses millsap]

I loved seeing penn lose since he thinks that his ability alone will get him by.

Yeah, I like to watch talent though, it's more entertaining when you see someone as skilled as BJ (re: the first two rounds of the fight). If he was committed to the sport, wow, he could be unstoppable, but of course, the better man won last night. He trained harder and had a bigger heart, not letting the accident poke to the eye bother him and not tapping out when it looked like it was all done in round 2.