[Lookingtostart]

Every now-and-again there seems to be one game where I'm around 80% sure that a team's going to cover the spread.

I bet on AFL only so far, and last week it was Melbourne, that was as close to a sure bet as you could get. Another one was when West Coast played the Bulldogs.

This week I'm 70% sure on Hawthorn and about 70% sure on Geelong so there's nothing too certain this week.

(I'm not saying that this sums up my betting strategy,)


Anyone got any "highly likely picks" of their own?

[brettels]

i would add north melbourne and western bulldogs as likely line beaters this week.

[StevoS]

Geelong looks pretty good to me.

[donkson]

I'd rather take the Hawks ML, without Buddy the line might be a bit close, but they won't lose.

[Lookingtostart]

I'm only 70% on Geelong (I don't know how Crows are going to score goals at all!) and Bulldogs (Ablett can't do everything on his own!), don't know about North. North should cover, but not sure about them travelling.

It will be interesting to see how hawks will go without Buddy.
The Bombers have recent injuries down back, which might balance things out.

[TwoWays]

Hawks played without Buddy a few weeks back against Freo as a 30+ point favorite and lost, I believe. They didn't lose the game but were losing going into the 4th quarter before running away with a victory. This is the same Sandi-less team that lost to the Demons by 90 points in the previous week. Now they will be without Roughy, Guerra, and a few other guys too. It will be a tough game for Hawthorne.

[Duff85]

Without wanting to be a neysayer... beating the spread at 80% over any worthy sample size is going to be impossible unless your somehow involved in match-fixing. :-) All the same best of luck to you sir.

[TwoWays]

Think he's just referring to his confidence level about those picks.

[Lookingtostart]

Yup, I'm referring to those plays that you think don't come along very often. Like said in my first post, this has nothing to do with strategy.

[Lookingtostart]

I would like to hear from other sports as well, doesn't have to be AFL, it's just that that's what I mainly bet.

This week I'm really confident about Melbourne -2.5. I'm 90% sure on that one. That is an amazing spread, not sure it's taking into account that Sherman has been suspended by his club for racial abusing a Gold Coast player. Alright, his not the best player but that's one less fit and experienced player for Bulldogs. Hall is limping on top of the way they've been playing this year.

Jurrah's ready to explode!

I like Gold Coast +44.5, 75% sure. Sandilands is out again.

Hawthorn and North spreads seem juicy but nothing too confident, rest is 50/50 for me.

[donkson]

Melbourne avg 110 points against away from the MCG.

[binomial]

i don't believe melbourne haven't won at ethiad for years.

dogs played pretty well against GC for about 3 quarters. they are fielding a pretty decent team now and players like higgins and cooney have played a few games now and starting to play better.

tough one to call IMO.

tend to agree with GC but fremantle played pretty well after sandilands got injured and could have won by about 10 goals if they kicked straight in the last quarter. GC often give up a run of goals and fremantle can get on a roll at home so couldn't be too confident about it.

[Alt75]

Binominal is correct, Melbourne haven't won at Etihad since Rd 19 2007, 10 game losing streak at Etihad. Funnily that last win was against the Bulldogs. In Rd 15 08 Bulldogs beat em 95-64. Both much different sides now. That trend is something to consider though.

[twarby]

Melbourne have lost 17 of their past 20 matches at Etihad, they leave their talent at the MCG.

Small forwards are what trouble the Dees most, the Dogs have heaps of them, Dogs are good value this week.

the only concern is that they played in the heat last week vs Gold Coast