Three Star Sires
If you have read my "essay" on Maiden Starters, you know that I use the TrackMaster Sire Statistics heavily, especially in races involving juvenile starters, and/or maiden races that involve a lot of first time starters. I have developed a "Sire Star System" to evaluate the "progeny possibilities" for each entry using some fairly strict criteria. Fortunately, using TrackMaster PLUS Software's incredible "sorting capabilities," these criteria can be analyzed in essentially a matter of seconds. Here are my "rules" ... and how I assign "Stars" after the TM Plus analysis has been made.
After my initial handicapping "routine," I then click on the "Pedigree Icon," and then the "Sire Statistics" icon ... then I click on the "Record of Foals" column and "sort" from best to worst on the "ITM" (In the Money) % column.
Now, with these statistics sorted, I then double click on the sires that have had their respective progeny making AT LEAST, 1,000 combined lifetime starts, and a ITM (Board Hit) % of at least 40% or higher. Those sires who meet this criteria, are awarded a "Star."
I then perform the same sorting routine in the ITM % column of the 2 Year Old portion of the sire statistics, and award a "Second Star" to only the sires that qualified for BOTH my first and second criteria (the 40% rule still applies). I have found that most of the sires who are awarded a "First Star," usually qualify for the "Second Star."
Now ... here is where the "going gets tough" .. the third star is now calculated in the "first asking" statistical column .. no ... I am not looking for a 40% win rate .. but I assign the difficult "3rd Star" if, and only if ... the ITM% in this final statistical category is 40% or higher!
With the hundreds/thousands of sires that earn a "First or Second" star ... there are only a "handful" of "current sires" that earn that elusive "3rd Star!" - They are listed below!
Also please note that this will become a "dynamic list" ... there are many current sires who may indeed qualify, but their progeny have not made my "Required 1,000 Combined Lifetime Starts" .. and there are others who easily qualify for the first two stars, but are sitting at the 40% or 41% level on the "First Asking" statistical list. So, if you use this list, please do not hesitate to ask for an update!
Three Star Sire List
NOTE: This list is not organized in any particular oder - just in the order that I found these sires qualifying for "The Three Stars" when I made the decision to begin this search.
Storm Cat
Successful Appeal
Menifee
Precise End
Dixieland Band
Distorted Humor
Gold Case
Tale of the Cat
Trippi
Indian Charlie
Carson City
Pulpit
West Acre
Mutakddim
Salt Lake
Boundary
Unbridled's Song
Meadowlake
Western Fame
Seeking the Gold
Citidancer
Giant's Causeway
Quaker Ridge
Cape Canaveral
Quite honestly folks, before I began using TrackMaster Plus Software several years ago, I really "shyed away" from the "maiden races." (To our experienced handicappers, please do not be offended .. but we do have a lot of new readers, and numerous readers that are just beginning their personal handicapping "adventures") To our new readers, the MAIDEN races are sort of equivalent to the "rookie leagues" in baseball .. they are staged for entries who have never won a race (Maidens), and essentially are "staged" in two categories .. Maiden Special Weight, which are for entries that have owners who wish to continue "ownership," and maiden claiming, for entries that the owner is willing to "part company" with their steeds, essentially allowing them to be "claimed" (purchased) by another owner before the race begins. The problem of course, that I had with the maiden entries, was that they were usually very inconsistent, and the work that it took to check on progeny (sire and dam statistics) as well as jockey/trainer records using a "conventional process" (The Daily Racing Form) was laborious. With TrackMaster PLUS Software the "work" involves a couple of keystrokes with the computer. Here are some of the "things" that I look for in handicapping a maiden event.
1. Win/Start Ratio: Well obviously, the Wins will = 0, but I have a really tough time recommending a maiden entry to win if the W/S ratio is more than 0/10 ... horses are "creatures of habit," and double digit losers are tough to pick on top. My favorite here on the New York circuit was of course, THE BOZ'N who went 0 for 85 before finally breaking his maiden at Charles Town in West Virginia! But I have made some $ on THE BOZ'N with place, show, and exotic boxed wagers that "keyed" horses with other credentials.
2. Progeny: For maiden starters, I ALWAYS click on the Sire Stats ... I sort downward for "Board Hit Percentage" and often an entry that is "out of a sire" that has produced progeny that have hit the board in more than 40% of their lifetime starts get a "check" from me .. this process takes about 2 seconds .. try to do it with The Form! If the entry is a juvenile .. 2 year olds (or at this time of year, 3 year olds --- they were juveniles back in December) I check board hit results for their progeny in races for 2 year olds. If a maiden is a first time starter .. check the sire stats here too .. . the "first asking" column is important as well.
3. Jockey/Trainer Ratios: For maidens, especially juvenile maidens, I like to check the Jockey/Trainer board hit percentage ... these unruly starters need an experienced "hand" .. and I like to focus on Jockey/Trainer teams that have at least 25 starts together and have at least a +50% board hit ratio. To me the ROI for this tandem is not important .. I'm "playing the odds," and all I care about is how will this team do for me today .. the +50% cutoff means that historically, this pair have hit the board with their entries more times than not. There is also an option in the "Trainer Stats" section which focuses entirely on how the trainers in the maiden race today have been doing with maiden starters only. This feature/statistic seems to work especially well with trainers sending out "first time starters."
4. Don't be afraid to play an exotic box .. remember .. these are the most unpredictable entries on the card today. However, boxing combos based on the criteria above, often produces monster exactas and trifectas.
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Three Star Sires & Playing Maidens
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