1. #1
    wizardofoddz
    wizardofoddz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-13-10
    Posts: 438

    Saratoga 8/12

    Race #1 The jumpers! Through the years I have found it's not the horse that wins these races, It's the rider/trainers. Going with the high percentages here.

    Race #1
    #8 Parker's Project $20 W/P


    Race #2 History has a way of repeating it's self. Richard Violette has been an icon with 2 year olds ($50 winner last week) A couple of gate works then Usually 3 works within 14 days with a bullet. The only thing I find troubling here is, Alan Garcia is Richards go rider. Alan Garcia chooses to stay with Kiaran McLaughlin, which he wins at a 33% clip. Richard Violette has a positive ROI in every category here, 2010 145 Races wins @ 18% ROI +.20, first time starter 116 @ 21% ROI +.34 and debut maiden special weight 89 @ 19% ROI +.29 It's hard to find any thing in this game with a positive ROI. Dam has 7 winners out of 7 first time starters, Sire hits at a 21% clip with firsters. Linda Rice is also very dangerous with first starters, especially since getting rid of Corny Velasquez. Dominguez wins on 40% of Lina Rice mounts.

    Race #2
    #5 Inflation Hedge $100 Win
    $20 QBX #5 Inflation Hedge / #1 Shaaraat / #3 Town Flirt


    Race #3 Ok, Hunt for Colleen ran a nice race first time out, but 5/2????? No way! You have an O-fer trainer with an O-fer Jock....
    I understand Hunt for Colleen is dropping into maiden claimers, but there are still better than her in this race.I have to stick with the hot hand here.

    Race #3
    #5 Point Gammon $20 Win


    Race #4 This is a very odd race. You have graded and non graded stakes runners dropping in for $20000 tag? Codeword was a contender at the $50,000 level along with Sette E Mezzo. Thing is Sette E Mezzo last competed in the graded stakes arena. So what is wrong with Sette E Mezzo? He has a win over the track at $50,000 and is going in today for $20,000 tag ? Last time out he was competing against the likes of Summer Bird and Quality Road. I have a strong feeling something isn't right with Sette E Mezzo , my first choice has been scratched. My second choice doesn't know he's a $16,000 claimer

    Race #4
    #5 Lemon Shore $20 Win


    Race #5 There is a trainer I have followed closely for almost 10 years, Michael Hushion. Key combo's used to be, Hushion / Gryder, Hushion / Prado and now the latest is Hushion / Hill. Michael Hushion always has one jockey he gives his golden nuggets to. This guy is also the king of karma moves. Turf to dirt, stretch out, turn back. 30+ days of rest. Dirt sprints are his forte. You will never see a bullet work. What you will see is, works getting closer together. I like what I see here!

    Race #5
    #6 Green Bananas $50 W/P




    Race #6 This is a race that horses need a pace to run at. I don't see a problem with that in this race. Smartie Bobbi, The West Rim and National Gallery should keep the pace honest. I like a horse that has gotten better with every race. The pars for this race are, E1 is an 80, E2 is 76, Late is 78 the speed par is 76. This horses speed figure is well above par, 88 her late pace par is well above any horse in the race 103 and I've become a Linda Rice fan since she dumped Chornhole Velasquez. I do see that Pena has a horse that is very much alive, but Pena has chosen to stick with Chornhole Velasquez. The other thing I see here is JR Velazquez is riding for his father in-law, usually a very live angle.

    Race #6
    #10 Chantilly G. $50 W/P


    Race #7 This is the bottom of the bottom. One of two things here, either they realized he only has three legs after they claimed him or they figure they mad back their investment?

    Race #7
    # 1 Brilliant Son $20 Win


    Race #8 George Weaver and JJ Castellano and a win on the track! enough said..

    Race #8
    #9 Bretton Woods $50 W/P


    Race #9 John Hertler is known in Saratoga as part of the "Bomb Squad" He actually works his horses on the track.What he is know for is stretching a horse out to win (longer distance) Then he keeps turning them back race after race. Then you get the stretch out again and "KABOOM" The bomb is detonated and rocks the tote board. He has done it for many years and for the most part, they all have been NY bread horses.He is also known for a horse for the course. So boys and girls, lets rock the tote board!

    Race #9
    #10 Mel's Gold $50 W/P


    Race #10 Here we have a horse that had been trained by Mark Casse, who is some would say a top trainer on the Canadian circuit. Merrill Scherer, owner takes over the training and moves this horse to the grass. Not a bad move, Wildcat Aly seems to like the green. Wildcat Aly has faced much superior competition on the dirt and should be able to handle these without a problem. Another thing, Robbie Albarado sticks around for the ride.

    Race #10
    # 1 Wildcat Aly $100 W/P


    Best Of Luck Today Horse Fans
    Last edited by wizardofoddz; 08-12-10 at 11:46 AM. Reason: adding races

  2. #2
    joeyp1222
    joeyp1222's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-01-09
    Posts: 5,186
    Betpoints: 158

    Quote Originally Posted by wizardofoddz View Post
    Race #1 The jumpers! Through the years I have found it's not the horse that wins these races, It's the rider/trainers. Going with the high percentages here.

    Race #1
    #8 Parker's Project $20 W/P


    Race #2 History has a way of repeating it's self. Richard Violette has been an icon with 2 year olds ($50 winner last week) A couple of gate works then Usually 3 works within 14 days with a bullet. The only thing I find troubling here is, Alan Garcia is Richards go rider. Alan Garcia chooses to stay with Kiaran McLaughlin, which he wins at a 33% clip. Richard Violette has a positive ROI in every category here, 2010 145 Races wins @ 18% ROI +.20, first time starter 116 @ 21% ROI +.34 and debut maiden special weight 89 @ 19% ROI +.29 It's hard to find any thing in this game with a positive ROI. Dam has 7 winners out of 7 first time starters, Sire hits at a 21% clip with firsters. Linda Rice is also very dangerous with first starters, especially since getting rid of Corny Velasquez. Dominguez wins on 40% of Lina Rice mounts.

    Race #2
    #5 Inflation Hedge $100 Win
    $20 QBX #5 Inflation Hedge / #1 Shaaraat / #3 Town Flirt


    Race #3 Ok, Hunt for Colleen ran a nice race first time out, but 5/2????? No way! You have an O-fer trainer with an O-fer Jock....
    I understand Hunt for Colleen is dropping into maiden claimers, but there are still better than her in this race.I have to stick with the hot hand here.

    Race #3
    #5 Point Gammon $20 Win


    Race #4 This is a very odd race. You have graded and non graded stakes runners dropping in for $20000 tag? Codeword was a contender at the $50,000 level along with Sette E Mezzo. Thing is Sette E Mezzo last competed in the graded stakes arena. So what is wrong with Sette E Mezzo? He has a win over the track at $50,000 and is going in today for $20,000 tag ? Last time out he was competing against the likes of Summer Bird and Quality Road. I have a strong feeling something isn't right with Sette E Mezzo , my first choice has been scratched. My second choice doesn't know he's a $16,000 claimer

    Race #4
    #5 Lemon Shore $20 Win


    Race #5 There is a trainer I have followed closely for almost 10 years, Michael Hushion. Key combo's used to be, Hushion / Gryder, Hushion / Prado and now the latest is Hushion / Hill. Michael Hushion always has one jockey he gives his golden nuggets to. This guy is also the king of karma moves. Turf to dirt, stretch out, turn back. 30+ days of rest. Dirt sprints are his forte. You will never see a bullet work. What you will see is, works getting closer together. I like what I see here!

    Race #5
    #6 Green Bananas $50 W/P




    Race #6 This is a race that horses need a pace to run at. I don't see a problem with that in this race. Smartie Bobbi, The West Rim and National Gallery should keep the pace honest. I like a horse that has gotten better with every race. The pars for this race are, E1 is an 80, E2 is 76, Late is 78 the speed par is 76. This horses speed figure is well above par, 88 her late pace par is well above any horse in the race 103 and I've become a Linda Rice fan since she dumped Chornhole Velasquez. I do see that Pena has a horse that is very much alive, but Pena has chosen to stick with Chornhole Velasquez. The other thing I see here is JR Velazquez is riding for his father in-law, usually a very live angle.

    Race #6
    #10 Chantilly G. $50 W/P


    MORE TO COME


    i got to agree with you in race 1 and in race 2 i like the 3-5-9 boxed myself good luck to you today

  3. #3
    mikemca
    Update Status
    mikemca's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-10
    Posts: 10,047
    Betpoints: 98

    GL Wiz .Straightforward with your picks and analysis is nice.

  4. #4
    mproud1
    mproud1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-19-09
    Posts: 569

    who is your BEST pick of the day?

  5. #5
    wizardofoddz
    wizardofoddz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-13-10
    Posts: 438

    Quote Originally Posted by mproud1 View Post
    who is your BEST pick of the day?
    I would say
    Race #2
    #5 Inflation Hedge $100 Win LOST

    Race #10
    # 1 Wildcat Aly $100 W/P

  6. #6
    wizardofoddz
    wizardofoddz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-13-10
    Posts: 438

    Quote Originally Posted by wizardofoddz View Post
    Race #1 The jumpers! Through the years I have found it's not the horse that wins these races, It's the rider/trainers. Going with the high percentages here.

    Race #1
    #8 Parker's Project $20 W/P (net +24)


    Race #2 History has a way of repeating it's self. Richard Violette has been an icon with 2 year olds ($50 winner last week) A couple of gate works then Usually 3 works within 14 days with a bullet. The only thing I find troubling here is, Alan Garcia is Richards go rider. Alan Garcia chooses to stay with Kiaran McLaughlin, which he wins at a 33% clip. Richard Violette has a positive ROI in every category here, 2010 145 Races wins @ 18% ROI +.20, first time starter 116 @ 21% ROI +.34 and debut maiden special weight 89 @ 19% ROI +.29 It's hard to find any thing in this game with a positive ROI. Dam has 7 winners out of 7 first time starters, Sire hits at a 21% clip with firsters. Linda Rice is also very dangerous with first starters, especially since getting rid of Corny Velasquez. Dominguez wins on 40% of Lina Rice mounts.

    Race #2
    #5 Inflation Hedge $100 Win
    $20 QBX #5 Inflation Hedge / #1 Shaaraat / #3 Town Flirt (-$160)


    Race #3 Ok, Hunt for Colleen ran a nice race first time out, but 5/2????? No way! You have an O-fer trainer with an O-fer Jock....
    I understand Hunt for Colleen is dropping into maiden claimers, but there are still better than her in this race.I have to stick with the hot hand here.

    Race #3
    #5 Point Gammon $20 Win (-$20)


    Race #4 This is a very odd race. You have graded and non graded stakes runners dropping in for $20000 tag? Codeword was a contender at the $50,000 level along with Sette E Mezzo. Thing is Sette E Mezzo last competed in the graded stakes arena. So what is wrong with Sette E Mezzo? He has a win over the track at $50,000 and is going in today for $20,000 tag ? Last time out he was competing against the likes of Summer Bird and Quality Road. I have a strong feeling something isn't right with Sette E Mezzo , my first choice has been scratched. My second choice doesn't know he's a $16,000 claimer

    Race #4
    #5 Lemon Shore $20 Win (-$20)


    Race #5 There is a trainer I have followed closely for almost 10 years, Michael Hushion. Key combo's used to be, Hushion / Gryder, Hushion / Prado and now the latest is Hushion / Hill. Michael Hushion always has one jockey he gives his golden nuggets to. This guy is also the king of karma moves. Turf to dirt, stretch out, turn back. 30+ days of rest. Dirt sprints are his forte. You will never see a bullet work. What you will see is, works getting closer together. I like what I see here!

    Race #5
    #6 Green Bananas $50 W/P ($-100)




    Race #6 This is a race that horses need a pace to run at. I don't see a problem with that in this race. Smartie Bobbi, The West Rim and National Gallery should keep the pace honest. I like a horse that has gotten better with every race. The pars for this race are, E1 is an 80, E2 is 76, Late is 78 the speed par is 76. This horses speed figure is well above par, 88 her late pace par is well above any horse in the race 103 and I've become a Linda Rice fan since she dumped Chornhole Velasquez. I do see that Pena has a horse that is very much alive, but Pena has chosen to stick with Chornhole Velasquez. The other thing I see here is JR Velazquez is riding for his father in-law, usually a very live angle.

    Race #6
    #10 Chantilly G. $50 W/P (-$100)


    Race #7 This is the bottom of the bottom. One of two things here, either they realized he only has three legs after they claimed him or they figure they mad back their investment?

    Race #7
    # 1 Brilliant Son $20 Win (-$20)


    Race #8 George Weaver and JJ Castellano and a win on the track! enough said..

    Race #8
    #9 Bretton Woods $50 W/P (net+$22.50)


    Race #9 John Hertler is known in Saratoga as part of the "Bomb Squad" He actually works his horses on the track.What he is know for is stretching a horse out to win (longer distance) Then he keeps turning them back race after race. Then you get the stretch out again and "KABOOM" The bomb is detonated and rocks the tote board. He has done it for many years and for the most part, they all have been NY bread horses.He is also known for a horse for the course. So boys and girls, lets rock the tote board!

    Race #9
    #10 Mel's Gold $50 W/P (-$100)


    Race #10 Here we have a horse that had been trained by Mark Casse, who is some would say a top trainer on the Canadian circuit. Merrill Scherer, owner takes over the training and moves this horse to the grass. Not a bad move, Wildcat Aly seems to like the green. Wildcat Aly has faced much superior competition on the dirt and should be able to handle these without a problem. Another thing, Robbie Albarado sticks around for the ride.

    Race #10
    # 1 Wildcat Aly $100 W/P (net +$195)





    Best Of Luck Today Horse Fans
    Total for the day -$279

Top