[singgooner]

Hi,

Since 30th April, I have been working on a system with some ratings and as I have found this forum to be very friendly and everyone is trying to make sure they point people to winners.

I thought I might share my results so far - be warned I am not using my system until I reach 3 months of data, as I believe that 3 months data will iron out any freak results or trainers going on hot streaks and then followed by cold streaks - so here's the raw data - with some conclusions at the end.


SINCE 30TH APRIL
SAMPLE SIZE - 1,388 RACES
WINNERS - 614 = 44.2% STRIKE RATE. However, if I bet on every horse tipped via the ratings - I would have made a LOSS of US$41,470
PLACE - 895 = 64.5% SR and again a LOSS of US$34,020
SHOW - 1,048 = 75.5% SR and again a LOSS of US$28,740

Those losses are made via a flat bet of US$200 on every tip on every of the 1,388 races.

Breaking the data down via grade of races:-
Allowances - 52% strike rate
Allowances on turf - 38% sr
Allowance Optional Claimers - 54% sr
Allowance Optional Claimers on turf - 38%sr
Claimers - 48%sr
Claimers on turf - 38%sr
Maiden Claimers - 42%sr
Maiden Claimers on turf - 33%sr
Maiden Special Weights - 44%sr
Maiden Special Weights on turf - 36%sr
Stakes races - 55%sr
Stakes races on turf - 58%sr
Starter Allowances - 67%sr

Therefore, we can conclude if any donut just blindly bets with no analysis - you will LOSE a shed load of money.

However, when you break down what kind of races to bet on - if you bet on races with above 50% strike rate - you should with a good betting system - even a martingale system - you should be able to win money just focusing on certain types of races like Allowances, Allowance Optional Claimers, Stakes races on dirt & turf, Starter Allowances and at 48% and being the main bedrock of American racing - a martingale system may work on Claimers on dirt as well.

As I say, I am only 2/3 way through my research and I have not put a cent on these selections, as I truly believe that a good 3 months of research is a good foundation before risking any money.

I hope this data helps someone stay away from some "burning money" races like Allowances, Claimers & Maiden Claimers on turf.

I always believe if your research is correct - your winners will come - what I am worried about is the losers -if you can cut out as many losers as you can - your bottom line will always look better.

Once, I am finished with my 3 months project - I will come back again.

Don't want to waste anyone's time with weekly updates - that don't really reflect anything.

Happy punting

[joeyp1222]

thanks for the information singooner and yes you will go broke if you bet every race. you have to pick your spots wisely to come out ahead in this game

[str]

Find it curios that starter allowance races do so well and claimers so poorly, being as eligibility for the starters are driven by running in claimers usually within the last 6 months to 1 year.Most times when or if a starter race does not fill, those horses are entered in claiming races as a fall back plan.Same type of horses with a vastly different result.Time will tell.

[jw]

Is the data from the US?

[singgooner]

Yes, the data is restrictly on Yankee Racing at the top A & B tracks.

I guess when my 3 months is up and I can do really good drill down on the stats to help bettors avoid certain races and surfaces.

[jw]

If you can get track condition stats too ... i'd take a close look at any track that is listed as "muddy or "sloppy"

[str]

If you can get track condition stats too ... i'd take a close look at any track that is listed as "muddy or "sloppy"

This is a very good point. They're are so many unique advantages to playing a sloppy or muddy track.
Case in point would be your April 30th Churchill results.Many solid advantages from that days card.

[joeyp1222]

21 more days to saratoga

[singgooner]

I have been thinking about drilling down on these stats and I have been breaking the stats down by grade and track.

So, the filters are like this
Claimer - type of race
3yo+ - age of race
5f - distance of race
fast - track surface

I have been tracking this from 1st June - so let me get 3 months of data on this and it should be interesting, as I might be able to answer the questions posted above

Happy punting