[JBEX]

added oaklawn 6

[JBEX]

added fg 13

[JBEX]

gulfstream


R4 #3 felix (8-1) 3WP
R7 #7 once a giant (10-1) 3WP

todd has #1 who is expensive for the specs firster but think he'll be overbet


aqueduct has the 3rd and 5th and other tracks are later ..have to run
out now ..will put up something about these races even if i pass them




aqueduct


R3 #7 good morning angel (7-2) 6W
R5 #5 celine the queen (5-2) 6W





oaklawn


R6 #11 whelen springs (5-1) 4WP





fairgrounds


R13 #6 big chopper (6-1)




.

2nd @ 7-1 $7.60 (11.40/6)
out @ 25-1 (6)


off track
off track


3rd @ 4-1 head 2nd (8)



WIN $11.20/5.00 (16.20/4)

forgot amount so minimum (2WP)..would've been 3WP



(4) 27.60/24
(280) 1621.85/1663 [0.97]


(284) 1649.45/1687 [0.97]

[JBEX]

gulfstream

R4 #7 bitty boss (8-1) 3WP



oaklawn

R6 #9 bet he's ready (8-1) 3WP




fairgrounds


R9 #3 macee (6-1) 3WP




.

[JBEX]

gulfstream

R4 #7 bitty boss (8-1) 3WP



oaklawn

R6 #9 bet he's ready (8-1) 3WP




fairgrounds


R9 #3 macee (6-1) 3WP




.

4th @ 2-1 (6)
3rd @ 6-1 (6)
2nd @ 6-1 $6.00 (9.00/6)

(3) 9.00/18
(284) 1649.45/1687 [0.97]


(287) 1658.45/1705 [0.97]



.

[JBEX]

there is a major flaw tracking things this way vs playing with a mythical bank and honestly have always known it

could do the math but I'll spare you..at an avg of $6 bet per race a realistic bankroll for this would be imo 400-500..establishing a starting bank imo is necessary to give this some meaning..the roi should be profit or loss related to bankroll and not volume..the amount of plays is important..losing 50 over 300 plays better than losing it over 100 plays which is why # of plays should be noted

currently at a $47 loss ..

300 bank [0.84]
400 bank [0.88]
450 bank [0.90]
500 bank [0.91]
600 bank [0.92]

300 aggressive and 600 conservative imo..also important in bank considerations is that the avg of $6/race almost always includes a win and place bet


if my roi based on volume were 0.85 then a $500 bank would be about halved by now (mine's 0.97)

if I declared a 500 (mythical) bank at the beginning should look something like this

(287) 500b/452c [0.90]

287 plays
500s= 500 starting bank
452c =452 current bank
[0.90] roi based on bank

these numbers much more meaningful than return/volume
and you are accounting for volume with # of plays

then there's the other reasonable argument that a sample size large enough to mean anything would be at minimum in the 1000's of plays


for these reasons I'm going to discontinue this thread at the end of the month


may start another in january (same subject) but only post race results vs tallying




.

[JBEX]

fairgrounds


R8 #6 dreamworker (6-1) 3WP



gulfstream


R10 #5 london lady (9-2) 3WP





turfway


R5 #5 sign of peace (8-1) 3WP (8:14)







.



.

[JBEX]

added turfway 5

[JBEX]

fairgrounds


R8 #6 dreamworker (6-1) 3WP



gulfstream


R10 #5 london lady (9-2) 3WP





turfway


R5 #5 sign of peace (8-1) 3WP (8:14)







.



.

WIN $9.00/4.80 (20.70/6)
4th @ 6-1 (6)
4th @ 5-1 (6)

(3) 20.70/18
(287) 1658.45/1705 [0.97]

(290) 1679.15/1723 [0.97]



about to post a couple for today

[JBEX]

aqueduct

R1 #5 my brother cam (7-2) 3WP



gulfstream

R11 #8 scarab (8-1) 3WP

[JBEX]

aqueduct


R5 #7 tempermental (9-2) 3WP


gulfstream


R6 #7 american pyramid (8-1) 3WP



.

[JBEX]

aqueduct

R1 #5 my brother cam (7-2) 3WP



gulfstream

R11 #8 scarab (8-1) 3WP

aqueduct


R5 #7 tempermental (9-2) 3WP


gulfstream


R6 #7 american pyramid (8-1) 3WP



.

eased @ 5-1 (6)
scratched


2nd @ 5-1 $8.80 (13.20/6)
3rd @ 5-1 (6)

(3) 13.20/18


(293) 1692.35/1741 [0.97]

[JBEX]

tampa

R5 #3 complete agenda (5-2) 6W

[JBEX]

tampa

R5 #3 complete agenda (5-2) 6W

2nd @ 5-2 (6)

(294) 1692.35/1747 [0.96]

[JBEX]

tampa (3:48)

R8 #7 giant's fire (6-1) 4WP

very expensive for the ped specs and his freshmen sire off to a fast start ,no pun,with firsters (this one) and runners overall..under the radar trainer (with babies) could help the price but still think he'll be bet


turfway (8:14)


R5 #4 madamoussepousee (5-1)
give me a break lol 3WP



some other category 2yo races I'll probably look at but that's all for the msw's




delta (1:55)


R1 #7 lauri's wish (4-1) 4W


with the purses for msw's I think you could make a case for mid-level track..I will go the minimum to partly compensate for that..unusual to see a horse debut at gulfstream for mcl 50k that's a louisiana bred..ran evenly and this is obviously a much softer field (la breds) and horse is not up for sale..trainer on fire at this meet..see if he can handle the bullring which at 7.5f is 3 turns



.

[JBEX]

added delta 1

[JBEX]

tampa


R6 #1 illogical love (5-2) 6W

[JBEX]

thursday

3rd @ 9-1 (8)
out @ 7-2 (6)
WIN $3.60 ($7.20/4)

friday

2nd @ 7-2 (6) only to win





(4) 7.20/24

(298) 1699.55/1771 [0.95]




.

[JBEX]

gulfstream (sunday)


R1 #3 barrett (20-1) 2WP
R6 #1 galt (6-1) 4WP
R8 #4 wolfe county (10-1) 3WP


santa anita

R1 #3 sweet savant (20-1) 3WP

first timer by trainer who is not good with them..however the combo of other things; pedigree, jockey,field lacks depth and special to win on opening day may overcome that weakness



fairgrounds

R1 #8 marquee ride (7-2) 4WP
R4 #7 georgetown road (6-1)3WP
R6 #9 legionnaire (4-1) 4WP
R12 #5 charlemagne (8-1) 3WP




tampa


R9 #5 hand gesture (3-1) 3WP




.

[JBEX]

added santa anita and fairgrounds

[JBEX]

finished gulfstream and did 1 at tampa..did the santa anita card using the thorographs in the other thread

[JBEX]

fairgrounds


R5 #5 know by heart (12-1) 2WP




santa anita


R9 #4 hemmerle (5-1) 4WP





.

[JBEX]

added santa anita 9

[JBEX]

12/26


out @ 59-1(4)
WIN $8.00/5.40 (26.80/8)
out @ 6-1 (6)

out @ 31-1(6)




out @ 7-5 (8)
out @ 3-1 (6)
out @ 5-2 (8)
out @ 14-1 (6)





2nd @ 2-1 $4.60 (6.90/6)



12/27


out @ 6-1 (4)
SLOPPY


(10) 33.70/62
(298) 1699.55/1771 [0.95]

(308) 1733.25/1833 [0.94]




.

[JBEX]

aqueduct

R5 #3 our shot (9-2) 4WP


fairgrounds

R2 #5 bouldering (6-1) 4WP

R4 #1 holy city (8-1) 4WP




.

[JBEX]

added fg 4

[JBEX]

added fg 2

[JBEX]

[QUOTE=JBEX;30709784]aqueduct

R5 #3 our shot (9-2) 4WP
sloppy

fairgrounds

R2 #5 bouldering (6-1) 4WP

R4 #1 holy city (8-1) 4WP


off turf




.[/QUOTE]

(308) 1733.25/1833 [0.94]

[JBEX]

aqueduct

R8 #10 curlin's wisdom (5-2) 8W

probably odds-on



fairgrounds

R2 #3 autumn's so flashy (8-1) 4WP


laurel


R6 #9 determined gold (6-1) 4WP




oaklawn


R7 #2 favorite outlaw (3-1) 4WP


tampa bay


R5 #2 origo (12-1) 3WP



.

[JBEX]

added laurel 6

[JBEX]

added oaklawn and tampa bay..that's all for today and will bring an end to this thread..going to start another doing this but will only be graded (results) and not tallied

[JBEX]

aqueduct

R8 #10 curlin's wisdom (5-2) 8W

probably odds-on



fairgrounds

R2 #3 autumn's so flashy (8-1) 4WP


laurel


R6 #9 determined gold (6-1) 4WP




oaklawn


R7 #2 favorite outlaw (3-1) 4WP


tampa bay


R5 #2 origo (12-1) 3WP



.

2nd @ even (8)
4th @ 15 (8)
muddy
2nd @ 3-1 $4.80 (9.60/8) nose
out @ 5-1 (6)

(4) 9.60/30

(312) 1742.85/1863 [0.93]


the end of this thread




.