Saudi Cup 20 MILLION BUCKS

[littlekona]

WOWO looking over PP's its a real nice card HUGE fields too. Hoping sites offer pic 3 and pic 4's. Looking at Big Race Chalk Bafferts Charlatan I think is vulnerable NO LASIK here plus last race sure was nice BUT Nashville who he blew by is a sprinter. I'm Laying and or if Multi races offered spreading after top (2) its a pricefest

Anyone have thoughts? Free Programs at Xpressbet and TVG under internationl

[JBEX]

#9 max player (20-1)


think it says a lot that asmussen would try this with him..rail in the derby and bad start preakness behind a slow pace (brisnet)and finished 5th in both..decent 3rd with good figures in the belmont and travers..could set up nice if charlatan, knicks go and maybe a wildcard foreigner set a fast pace

[littlekona]

#9 max player (20-1)


think it says a lot that asmussen would try this with him..rail in the derby and bad start preakness behind a slow pace (brisnet)and finished 5th in both..decent 3rd with good figures in the belmont and travers..could set up nice if charlatan, knicks go and maybe a wildcard foreigner set a fast pace

you read how Umberto (Max Player)and Gary Stevens(TV) got taken off the plane right as it was about to go PLUS Johnny V too got caught up in Covid protocol last min so didnt make trip. What a bummer for these jocks with purses so huge

[JBEX]

you read how Umberto (Max Player)and Gary Stevens(TV) got taken off the plane right as it was about to go PLUS Johnny V too got caught up in Covid protocol last min so didnt make trip. What a bummer for these jocks with purses so huge

yeah tough with those $$ on the line ..wasn't aware of it..do you know who's riding mine ?

[littlekona]

yeah tough with those $$ on the line ..wasn't aware of it..do you know who's riding mine ?

not sure but if i was owner i'd say get Barzalona

[JBEX]

not sure but if i was owner i'd say get Barzalona

that'd be good..we'll see

[JBEX]

not sure but if i was owner i'd say get Barzalona

you're right..it's him

[littlekona]

chanell maker ran huge race there looked home but Mullins is such a great distance trainer and Holly so patient. That 99-1 shot did no favors softening up Joel too that was probably difference

[littlekona]

WOWZA I think Charlatan was best there but was given a horrid ride by Smith used way to much early could of stalked and dominated. Ill take the lay and a nice spread late double with 2 prices

King Abdulaziz Racetrack - Race
7 $4 Daily Double (2, 5, 8, 9 / 4, 6, 8, 11, 14)


also side note pretty funny they had huge rain storms earlier rains like 3 days a year there LOL

[littlekona]

wow double paid bit more then i thought BUT man the pic 3 was huge and Rosario was scheduled to ride winner too ouch! $2 Double (2/11) Paid $688.20

$0.50 Pick-3 (7/2/11) Paid $5,228.55 (3OF3)

[JBEX]

wow double paid bit more then i thought BUT man the pic 3 was huge and Rosario was scheduled to ride winner too ouch! $2 Double (2/11) Paid $688.20

$0.50 Pick-3 (7/2/11) Paid $5,228.55 (3OF3)

I think there were some positives with the winner..obvious one he won here last year vs lesser..but the other to me is he established himself as a pretty classy euro horse last year.. winning a g1 and g2 at longer distances ..understand that was on turf but still should count for something..key though is putting this together before the race lol

[littlekona]

that was the biggest double ive hit in years the biggest one i ever hit was at Hawthorne harness that paid 1200$.
the last 2 winner in both Saudi races took action on the betfair exchange with the Saudi Cup winner being 9-1 vs 19-1 in USA tote

[JBEX]

that was the biggest double ive hit in years the biggest one i ever hit was at Hawthorne harness that paid 1200$.
the last 2 winner in both Saudi races took action on the betfair exchange with the Saudi Cup winner being 9-1 vs 19-1 in USA tote

I missed that you had it before..nice hit !! interesting they had a much higher opinion of him at the exchanges

[JBEX]

that was the biggest double ive hit in years the biggest one i ever hit was at Hawthorne harness that paid 1200$.
the last 2 winner in both Saudi races took action on the betfair exchange with the Saudi Cup winner being 9-1 vs 19-1 in USA tote

do you think this is because betfair players have a european bias or just sharper money overall going in?

[littlekona]

do you think this is because betfair players have a european bias or just sharper money overall going in?

the exchange is much sharper esp on chalks overall BUT you are also correct in big international races if any UK connections are involved they get bet in exchanges with all the UK money. The winner did have a race over the track last year in the mile ran a nice second after blowing start...Taticus was I think 10-1 or so in USA 24-1 in Exchange and Max player was 60-1 on exchange

[JBEX]

the exchange is much sharper esp on chalks overall BUT you are also correct in big international races if any UK connections are involved they get bet in exchanges with all the UK money. The winner did have a race over the track last year in the mile ran a nice second after blowing start...Taticus was I think 10-1 or so in USA 24-1 in Exchange and Max player was 60-1 on exchange

yeah I think I remember you saying that about chalks.. boy it's difficult to take the lower odds if you only have access to one outlet like most folks

[littlekona]

yea like Tampa race 4 that just ran TIZ APPROVED was @ 1.5 or so on the exchange the whole time while USA tote had him 8-5 or so while loading then he went all the way to 2-5 as they let the gates open. I see that all the time and then you know who the true favorite is....Also see opposite where tote has horse 7-5 BUT exchange 4.0 they always drift late on tote when this is case. Plus those are the best horses to lay

[JBEX]

yea like Tampa race 4 that just ran TIZ APPROVED was @ 1.5 or so on the exchange the whole time while USA tote had him 8-5 or so while loading then he went all the way to 2-5 as they let the gates open. I see that all the time and then you know who the true favorite is....Also see opposite where tote has horse 7-5 BUT exchange 4.0 they always drift late on tote when this is case. Plus those are the best horses to lay

one thing that's always confused me about how the exchanges work is how a consensus price is established..aren't they just matching people who are offering with the takers at a set price?

[littlekona]

one thing that's always confused me about how the exchanges work is how a consensus price is established..aren't they just matching people who are offering with the takers at a set price?

its like the stock market up and down prices. I rarely ever take the offering price always bump it up a bit until its real close to off time. Over time you start seeing trends that really help. Even when I im busted out in my exchange account I always have it up as a great tool to determine fair odds and who is and is not getting real action. on the UK races they even offer how far a horse win by bets which i really like to esp in hurdle or chase races

[JBEX]

its like the stock market up and down prices. I rarely ever take the offering price always bump it up a bit until its real close to off time. Over time you start seeing trends that really help. Even when I im busted out in my exchange account I always have it up as a great tool to determine fair odds and who is and is not getting real action. on the UK races they even offer how far a horse win by bets which i really like to esp in hurdle or chase races

so if you are good at spotting bad favorites over time there's money to be made..example..if you see a 3-2 (2.5) ml that you think will go off higher you can offer at or around that price earlier in the day and see if there are any takers ?

[littlekona]

so if you are good at spotting bad favorites over time there's money to be made..example..if you see a 3-2 (2.5) ml that you think will go off higher you can offer at or around that price earlier in the day and see if there are any takers ?

Lay bets have turned me from a losing horse player to winner the last 3 years. I mostly lay favorites or lower prices normally under 4.0 or so. So many bad favorites a guy like you would clean up too. My favorite is laying horses that are acting up, all washed out, get loose or break through the starting gate as favorite. Thats where Lay bets are a huge +EV I also play against first timers, first time stretch out. lay offs and shippers going from a A track to B or lower. Lots of angles but love the lay option


But remember its only offered at limited US tracks like Today Aqueduct Tampa Fonner.....UK races have HUGE handles

[JBEX]

Lay bets have turned me from a losing horse player to winner the last 3 years. I mostly lay favorites or lower prices normally under 4.0 or so. So many bad favorites a guy like you would clean up too. My favorite is laying horses that are acting up, all washed out, get loose or break through the starting gate as favorite. Thats where Lay bets are a huge +EV I also play against first timers, first time stretch out. lay offs and shippers going from a A track to B or lower. Lots of angles but love the lay option


But remember its only offered at limited US tracks like Today Aqueduct Tampa Fonner.....UK races have HUGE handles

wow that's great it's a positive roi for you..it would be more interesting to me (us races) if the exchange could take place prior to seeing what the odds are..I offer a price 3 hrs before post and the bettor commits at least a half hour before post..do they have anything like that or decisions are always close to post..guessing the latter ?

[littlekona]

wow that's great it's a positive roi for you..it would be more interesting to me (us races) if the exchange could take place prior to seeing what the odds are..I offer a price 3 hrs before post and the bettor commits at least a half hour before post..do they have anything like that or decisions are always close to post..guessing the latter ?

the exchange tracks for USA really dont open up fully until 30 mins or so to post time outside of the big races the liquiduty earlier is bad. Whitehorse offers a test account you can check out just to see. Great tool even if your not betting with them

Website: https://whitehorse.tips/login
Username: horserace
Pass: abcd1234

[TerraNonFirma]

I found it interesting how the trainer was really eyeballing the eventual winner immediately before that big money race, as if to say, "don't fly away .... " Not accusing anyone, but that horse was wired, it seemed to me, prior to that race, a bit more than we usually see stateside, and I've been looking at horseflesh since the 1980's.

He was on my watch list, as well, and the ML was 6/1, but .... those weren't nerves of steel that I was looking at.

[littlekona]

I found it interesting how the trainer was really eyeballing the eventual winner immediately before that big money race, as if to say, "don't fly away .... " Not accusing anyone, but that horse was wired, it seemed to me, prior to that race, a bit more than we usually see stateside, and I've been looking at horseflesh since the 1980's.

He was on my watch list, as well, and the ML was 6/1, but .... those weren't nerves of steel that I was looking at.

LOL...he is a nervous horse. Last year at Saudi in the Mile he acted up too and it cost him the race.....this year he has Mike Smith to thank for the win...I had him it was a huge pic 3 so happy but hes a bet against next out in Dubai