[JBEX]

kentucky oaks (tomorrow)

I believe there are some legit knocks on the two big oaks favorites gamine (1-1)and swiss skydiver(8-5) ..the former is coming off two monster efforts and neither were around 2 turns..her only 2 turn race she won but was disqualified wouldn't get it done here ..understand she might just be a better horse now then she was in that start but the combo of a possible bounce along with the so-so effort in her only attempt,makes her a little vulnerable to me..also she's coming back much quicker than she ever has and had to ship back to del mar after her last at saratoga..lot of travel

swiss skydiver is coming off a huge top in the alabama and returning in 3 weeks ..her last 4 starts she returned in 5 weeks and the start before that was 6 weeks..6 starts back she returned in 4 weeks and ran the lowest figure of her career..to be a fair it was her first attempt at 2 turns in her 4th career start .. overall at short odds see some vulnerabilities


speech (5-1) cost a lot of money for her modest pedigree and I'll still bring that into play at this point..maybe why she's been so good ..main thing though is the ashland (she won) on the brisnets was about a length faster than the bluegrass(bg) run on the same day which ss lost..yes the ashland was a 1/2 furlong shorter than the bg (1 1/16 vs 1 1/8) but she opened up 2.5 lengths in the stretch ..also she's coming off 8 weeks rest and should be a lot fresher

[JBEX]

track will probably be sloppy (at least to start) at Churchill today but tomorrow and saturday supposed to be nice..be looking more at saratoga today

[BOA12]

kentucky oaks (tomorrow)

I believe there are some legit knocks on the two big oaks favorites gamine (1-1)and swiss skydiver(8-5) ..the former is coming off two monster efforts and neither were around 2 turns..her only 2 turn race she won but was disqualified wouldn't get it done here ..understand she might just be a better horse now then she was in that start but the combo of a possible bounce along with the so-so effort in her only attempt,makes her a little vulnerable to me..also she's coming back much quicker than she ever has and had to ship back to del mar after her last at saratoga..lot of travel

swiss skydiver is coming off a huge top in the alabama and returning in 3 weeks ..her last 4 starts she returned in 5 weeks and the start before that was 6 weeks..6 starts back she returned in 4 weeks and ran the lowest figure of her career..to be a fair it was her first attempt at 2 turns in her 4th career start .. overall at short odds see some vulnerabilities


speech (5-1) cost a lot of money for her modest pedigree and I'll still bring that into play at this point..maybe why she's been so good ..main thing though is the ashland (she won) on the brisnets was about a length faster than the bluegrass(bg) run on the same day which ss lost..yes the ashland was a 1/2 furlong shorter than the bg (1 1/16 vs 1 1/8) but she opened up 2.5 lengths in the stretch ..also she's coming off 8 weeks rest and should be a lot fresher

J. all the way!

[JBEX]

J. all the way!

thanks b o a

[JBEX]

saratoga


R1 #4 this ill defend (12-1)

very similar line to his last produced the best figure he's ever run.. a little more ground (1 mile vs 1 1/8 today) and he might have won


R2 #6 my first grammy (8-1)

R3 #4 thursday (20-1)

i find it interesting he's shipping here to try a stakes (2yo) around 2 turns on the turf off a maiden claiming sprint win at delaware.. gotta love the name


R4 #4 blunt force (2-1)

think better post and half furlong less will help


R5 #5 stella mars (12-1)

definitely cost a good amount relative to the pedigree (2yo msw turf route.. debuter) has a way above avg win early, turf pedigree.. cancel not a great turf rider but to me that's less important with a lot of newbies in the race. jock is also listed to ride the "a" part of the 1 entry (an also eligible) who I like also and the other half of that one is decent also.. check back later as I might make a switch.. I will state a final pick before first race



1st,3rd and 5th scheduled for turf and must be run on it to play




churchill.. figuring slop

R1 #4 matt's honey (7-2)
R2 #6 tipazar (6-1)
R4 #2 runnin' ray (9-2)
R5 turf probably off


R6 #8 sea of hope (7-2)
R7 #5 palazi (8-1)
R10 #11 girl daddy (8-1)
R11 #13 eel point

[BOA12]

saratoga


R1 #4 this ill defend (12-1)

very similar line to his last produced the best figure he's ever run.. a little more ground (1 mile vs 1 1/8 today) and he might have won


R2 #6 my first grammy (8-1)

R3 #4 thursday (20-1)

i find it interesting he's shipping here to try a stakes (2yo) around 2 turns on the turf off a maiden claiming sprint win at delaware.. gotta love the name


R4 #4 blunt force (2-1)

think better post and half furlong less will help


R5 #5 stella mars (12-1)

definitely cost a good amount relative to the pedigree (2yo msw turf route.. debuter) has a way above avg win early, turf pedigree.. cancel not a great turf rider but to me that's less important with a lot of newbies in the race. jock is also listed to ride the "a" part of the 1 entry (an also eligible) who I like also and the other half of that one is decent also.. check back later as I might make a switch.. I will state a final pick before first race



1st,3rd and 5th scheduled for turf and must be run on it to play

R4 #4 solid as it gets.

[JBEX]

R4 #4 solid as it gets.

yeah.. rewards won't be great but makes sense

[JBEX]

through 5 at churchill

[JBEX]

through 10 churchill.. probably put up something for 11 later

[BOA12]

R4 #4 solid as it gets.

Blunt Force 3-1. Overlay I'd Say.

[JBEX]

Blunt Force 3-1. Overlay I'd Say.

yeah not bad..caramouche rode him perfectly

[JBEX]

added churchill 11