1. #1
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    MrG&T Turf Only Discussion

    My favorite is turf racing; especially at 1mile to 1 1/2 miles. With that said, I like to start a thread about turf only thread and see what you guys like. I will start with CD Race 6.

    ML favorites are 4- Evil Lyn (ML 8-5) and 1- Coldwater (ML 2-1). While the 4 is 2 for 2 on turf, I just don't think she is really bred for it; she set very soft fraction last two wins. I think she is very vulnerable. While the 1 takes a big class relief fro G1 last out when she was just way over her head. She also I question about her turf ability. Two long shots that I am going take a shot at going 1 1/8 for this race is 8- Tuxedo Lemon (ML 15-1), she is by Lemon Drop Kid (one of my favorite). She has shown tactical speed. Price seems right. The other is 5- Drinkatthecreek (ML 20-1), she has some back races that should make her competitive and her turf pedigree seems to fit well for this.

    So: WP bet on both 5 and 8.

    GL all

  2. #2
    Jellymancan
    Jellymancan's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-09-20
    Posts: 2,396
    Betpoints: 8011

    Awesome. Sounds like a good thread to me!

  3. #3
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Quote Originally Posted by mrginandtonic View Post
    My favorite is turf racing; especially at 1mile to 1 1/2 miles. With that said, I like to start a thread about turf only thread and see what you guys like. I will start with CD Race 6.

    ML favorites are 4- Evil Lyn (ML 8-5) and 1- Coldwater (ML 2-1). While the 4 is 2 for 2 on turf, I just don't think she is really bred for it; she set very soft fraction last two wins. I think she is very vulnerable. While the 1 takes a big class relief fro G1 last out when she was just way over her head. She also I question about her turf ability. Two long shots that I am going take a shot at going 1 1/8 for this race is 8- Tuxedo Lemon (ML 15-1), she is by Lemon Drop Kid (one of my favorite). She has shown tactical speed. Price seems right. The other is 5- Drinkatthecreek (ML 20-1), she has some back races that should make her competitive and her turf pedigree seems to fit well for this.

    So: WP bet on both 5 and 8.

    GL all

    The 10- Stylish Kitten (ML 12-1) is taking a lot of money. While certainly has turf pedigree, she is bred by the Ramsey's Kitten's Joy. We see so many of them that don't do well. I don't think she will win. I am betting against the trainer who hasn't won all year and she came from TP. May use her underneath.

  4. #4
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 18,412
    Betpoints: 4358

    I'll come in late with #6

  5. #5
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Quote Originally Posted by Jellymancan View Post
    Awesome. Sounds like a good thread to me!
    Thanks Jellyman, see anything you like; welcome to chime in.

  6. #6
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 18,412
    Betpoints: 4358

    didn't have time to comment

  7. #7
    Jellymancan
    Jellymancan's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-09-20
    Posts: 2,396
    Betpoints: 8011

    #10 here

  8. #8
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Quote Originally Posted by mrginandtonic View Post
    My favorite is turf racing; especially at 1mile to 1 1/2 miles. With that said, I like to start a thread about turf only thread and see what you guys like. I will start with CD Race 6.

    ML favorites are 4- Evil Lyn (ML 8-5) and 1- Coldwater (ML 2-1). While the 4 is 2 for 2 on turf, I just don't think she is really bred for it; she set very soft fraction last two wins. I think she is very vulnerable. While the 1 takes a big class relief fro G1 last out when she was just way over her head. She also I question about her turf ability. Two long shots that I am going take a shot at going 1 1/8 for this race is 8- Tuxedo Lemon (ML 15-1), she is by Lemon Drop Kid (one of my favorite). She has shown tactical speed. Price seems right. The other is 5- Drinkatthecreek (ML 20-1), she has some back races that should make her competitive and her turf pedigree seems to fit well for this.

    So: WP bet on both 5 and 8.

    GL all
    Brad Cox trained...

  9. #9
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Next turf race is Race 9, 1 1/16. Looks like a wide open affair. Gonna a Pick 3 bet with this race may just light up the tote board.


    P3: 2/3/all $5.50


    Who do you guys like?

  10. #10
    Jellymancan
    Jellymancan's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-09-20
    Posts: 2,396
    Betpoints: 8011

    Many choices in that one. 3,7,9,10,12 lol

  11. #11
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Quote Originally Posted by mrginandtonic View Post
    Next turf race is Race 9, 1 1/16. Looks like a wide open affair. Gonna a Pick 3 bet with this race may just light up the tote board.


    P3: 2/3/all $5.50


    Who do you guys like?
    I think Castellano has lost his mojo!! Can't ride sh*t

  12. #12
    Jellymancan
    Jellymancan's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-09-20
    Posts: 2,396
    Betpoints: 8011

    Oh yes, he's ice cold right now. Think I saw some thing like 16-0-6-0 last two weeks. 1 win last 26 starts.

  13. #13
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Quote Originally Posted by Jellymancan View Post
    Oh yes, he's ice cold right now. Think I saw some thing like 16-0-6-0 last two weeks. 1 win last 26 starts.
    Yeah, saw that too; I figure, it's Chad Brown, so may be he can pick up a win... lol

    Good thing I have a back up ticket...
    05/25 12:59 PM Churchill Downs 7 $0.50 P3 (PWHL) 2, 11 / 3 / 1, 5, 7, 9, 10, 12 $6.00
    Now, let's see Santana can bring one home for Asmussen

  14. #14
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 18,412
    Betpoints: 4358

    i'd go #7 morocco (8-1)

  15. #15
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    i'd go #7 morocco (8-1)
    Like that one too, wonder if it's gonna be off turf now??

  16. #16
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 18,412
    Betpoints: 4358

    Quote Originally Posted by mrginandtonic View Post

    Like that one too, wonder if it's gonna be off turf now??
    I don't have a view of it right now so I couldn't tell you

  17. #17
    Jellymancan
    Jellymancan's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-09-20
    Posts: 2,396
    Betpoints: 8011

    Not actually raining there so you should be good.

  18. #18
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Quote Originally Posted by mrginandtonic View Post
    Yeah, saw that too; I figure, it's Chad Brown, so may be he can pick up a win... lol

    Good thing I have a back up ticket...
    05/25 12:59 PM Churchill Downs 7 $0.50 P3 (PWHL) 2, 11 / 3 / 1, 5, 7, 9, 10, 12 $6.00
    Now, let's see Santana can bring one home for Asmussen

    Really like the 9 in this race...

  19. #19
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Santa Anita Race 9, the G1, Shoemaker Mile on Turf


    Chad Brown has two horses: 1- Without Parole (ML 4-1) and 8- Raging Bull (ML 7-2)

    Mark Casse also has two horses: 5- War of Will (ML 4-1) and 9- March to the Arch (ML 6-1)

    1- Without Parole is out of the might Frankel. He has done some good racing as 2 and 3yo, then hasn't done much ever since moving up to 3yo and up. He has been overmatched since. Came to the state for last year's Breeders Cup Mile, he rallied to get show money. Until he wins one, I am going to bet against him.

    2- True Valour (ML 20-1), I think at best he is a G3 type horse, overmatched here.

    3- Next Shares (ML 12-1), this one I find interesting; has been very consistent and occasionally can surprise at a price. Johnny V takes over the mount from Prat who will ride War of Will. His last race was decent, rallied for 3rd behind River Boyne who is stuck in the outside post. I think he should be at least use underneath and may sprinkle a little for Win money.

    4- Voodoo Song (ML 12-1), he might get bet just because of Smith. He may be the controlling speed of the race, but I think he may have regress from his best. Maybe Mandella can do some magic, but I will go against him this time.

    5- War of Will (ML 4-1), tactical speed from the get go, should work out a good trip. He is by War Front and out of Sadler's Wells mare, just says to me turf turf and more turf. I think his 3year old campaign was great, but I think ultimately, turf is what the connections wanted all along.

    6- Biltzkrieg (ML 20-1), I think the ML tells the story, at best, 3rd or 4th

    7- scratched

    8- Raging Bull (ML 7-2), he is actually the slight ML favorite at 7-2; trained by Chad and hasn't won since 3yr old. He is in my stable ever since he was a 3yr old, his deep closing style is his demise. Has been close but no cigar....

    9- March to the Arch (ML 6-1), the other one trained by Mark Casse, his tactical/ closing style may work out a great trip for him. He is the top pick by DRF experts Mike Beer. His numbers say that he can win, and Victor can get him up closer, he should have a say in the outcome.

    10- Neptune's Storm (ML 15-1), just not sure if he can go with these guys early and last...

    11- River Boyne (ML 4-1), definitely the now horse, but he is stuck to the outside, he is one of the 3 that is list at 4-1, and one that I will go against for top money.

    Will wait for the tote to decide on wager. Now I like 5 and 3

  20. #20
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Looking at the probable doubles for Race 8 to Race 9; a lot of money on the 9 with the two Chad Brown horse.

    9-1 pays around $10
    9-8 pays around $13

  21. #21
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Shoemaker Mile

    Gonna go with WP on War of Will

    Tri 5/3,4,8,9/3,4,8,9

    $5W 1- Without Parole (just in case he wins)

  22. #22
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Prat .... lol

  23. #23
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Quote Originally Posted by mrginandtonic View Post
    Shoemaker Mile

    Gonna go with WP on War of Will

    Tri 5/3,4,8,9/3,4,8,9

    $5W 1- Without Parole (just in case he wins)
    Should have gotten this, I was too mesmerized by the 5.... should have gotten as WP on the 3 which I said all along. One of those days...

  24. #24
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Almost forgot, one more turf race, Race 11, The Gamely, going 1 1/8.

    Heavy favorite, Etioile (ML 5-2) now even money. As good as Chad Brown, gonna have to go against this long layoff. No time for write ups, I will go with the 3,4,5,8. Like the 3 the most.

  25. #25
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 18,412
    Betpoints: 4358

    #4 giza goddess.. compromised by slow pace last and wide post 2 back.. big question can she get the extra furlong

  26. #26
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 18,412
    Betpoints: 4358

    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    #4 giza goddess.. compromised by slow pace last and wide post 2 back.. big question can she get the extra furlong

    how the hell was the 8 up close pressuring the 4.. am I reading the wrong pp's

  27. #27
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    how the hell was the 8 up close pressuring the 4.. am I reading the wrong pp's
    Yeah, I didn't see a lot pace in this race and that's why I went with 4 also; figure Victor can control the pace. Mike Smith is just an idiot. As good as he is, he is a horrible turf rider, IMO.

  28. #28
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 18,412
    Betpoints: 4358

    Quote Originally Posted by mrginandtonic View Post
    Yeah, I didn't see a lot pace in this race and that's why I went with 4 also; figure Victor can control the pace. Mike Smith is just an idiot. As good as he is, he is a horrible turf rider, IMO.
    I didn't even think a horse like that had it in her to be close up no matter who was on her back.. Smith is an avg turf jock and a big loss if you bet him blindly on it

  29. #29
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    I didn't even think a horse like that had it in her to be close up no matter who was on her back.. Smith is an avg turf jock and a big loss if you bet him blindly on it
    She would have a better chance if she makes a run at the end instead of pressing the 4. Most of the time, Mike likes to send and tracks the front runner. He doesn't know how to ride a turf horse. He is not avg; he is worse than avg.

  30. #30
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 18,412
    Betpoints: 4358

    Quote Originally Posted by mrginandtonic View Post
    She would have a better chance if she makes a run at the end instead of pressing the 4. Most of the time, Mike likes to send and tracks the front runner. He doesn't know how to ride a turf horse. He is not avg; he is worse than avg.

    when I say avg I'm just going by %.. you watch him closer than me so you would know.. so at least I learn something out of this.. the right jockey can take any confirmed midpack to back of the pack horse and put it close to the front to press the leader.. seriously didn't know that.. you're right though she had no chance of winning like that

  31. #31
    Louisvillekid1
    LAMAR MVP!
    Louisvillekid1's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-17-07
    Posts: 51,902
    Betpoints: 52

    Great thread

  32. #32
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Great thread
    Thanks Lkid, please chime in when you have time. Love to hear your thoughts.

  33. #33
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Let's take a look at Gulfstream Park Race 4, 1 mile turf MSW.

    The ML favorite is the 3- North Broadway (ML 3-1) and anything out of Chad, we should take seriously. Her last race was almost 5 months ago and it was her first race. The first and second place finishers came back to win their next start so we have to think that it was a life race. With that said, I wonder why Ortiz is not on her, but rather he chose to ride Clement's horse, 12- Ocean Air. Nik Juraez is the Chad's horse. I think that the pace should be decent with the 5-Winnipge Wonder, 10-American Goddess, 11- Tiz Affair, and possibly the 9- Fall Moon going early. I would think that this should set up nicely for the 3- North Broadway. I also like the 4- You're the Best (ML 15-1) whose sire is Malibu Moon and dam is out Speighstown so she should be able to turf and her what looks like tactical speed, she should get a jump on the front runners. Also, the 1-Starship Mallomar (ML 30-1) has been improving and she should get a piece. Out of all the other ones, the one that is interesting is 8-Under the Oaks who is trained by Clement who can definitely fire first out. Maybe at a price. The rest are either long lay offs or nothing that catches my eyes.

    4- You're the Best (ML 15-1) worth a WP bet at a price
    Ex 3,4/1,3,4,5

  34. #34
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,215
    Betpoints: 3084

    Quote Originally Posted by mrginandtonic View Post
    Let's take a look at Gulfstream Park Race 4, 1 mile turf MSW.

    The ML favorite is the 3- North Broadway (ML 3-1) and anything out of Chad, we should take seriously. Her last race was almost 5 months ago and it was her first race. The first and second place finishers came back to win their next start so we have to think that it was a life race. With that said, I wonder why Ortiz is not on her, but rather he chose to ride Clement's horse, 12- Ocean Air. Nik Juraez is the Chad's horse. I think that the pace should be decent with the 5-Winnipge Wonder, 10-American Goddess, 11- Tiz Affair, and possibly the 9- Fall Moon going early. I would think that this should set up nicely for the 3- North Broadway. I also like the 4- You're the Best (ML 15-1) whose sire is Malibu Moon and dam is out Speighstown so she should be able to turf and her what looks like tactical speed, she should get a jump on the front runners. Also, the 1-Starship Mallomar (ML 30-1) has been improving and she should get a piece. Out of all the other ones, the one that is interesting is 8-Under the Oaks who is trained by Clement who can definitely fire first out. Maybe at a price. The rest are either long lay offs or nothing that catches my eyes.

    4- You're the Best (ML 15-1) worth a WP bet at a price
    Ex 3,4/1,3,4,5
    4 was too far back didn't get involved until after the far turn and then behind a lot horse. no where to go. Should have known when she went off at 25-1, was expecting around 12-1. 3 won as expected.

  35. #35
    Jellymancan
    Jellymancan's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-09-20
    Posts: 2,396
    Betpoints: 8011

    Who do you like R11 CD?

1234 Last
Top