[Seattle Slew]

Couple plays on Saturday.

Race 5: No. 5 Right Special with No. 3 The Tin Man. Right Special finished full of run last out at a mile against these same horses. Blacn moved the horse too late. A earlier move could upset this field.

Race 10: No. 5 Molengao with No. 8 Lava Man. Molengao might be ready for a huge effort here.

[Seattle Slew]

Ran out in Race 5. How I let a Bobby Frankel turf horse with good form go off at 5-1 and not bet?

In the Gold Cup, all the credit to Lava Man but how does Molenagao not get second? Makes a big move on the turn and quits in the stretch to finish 4th or 5th. I just can never win with Victor Espinoza. I really think his brother Jose is a better jockey.

Also, anyone check out the BS the TVG announcers were throwing around? Greatest race of the year, one of the best of all time? Stop. Then they have the nerve to say "new track record." They've only run the race twice on the Cushion track!! Plus, isn't the final time of 2:03 slow for that distance? Didn't Cigar run 1:59 at Belmont?

Those horses were staggering home. And Todd Schrup is my new announcer I hate. The guy makes no sense. And Frank Lyons is worse. After the Frankel turf horse won, he said "well he finished well in the Shoemaker Mile." Hey Frank, he didn't run in the Shoemaker Mile. Other than that, great analysis.

[BigBollocks]

Seattle I'm going to start spending more time in this forum as I really enjoy hearing yours and picantel's opinions.

You and I have had similar takes on several of the big races lately, but unfortunately that has not been a good thing. I crushed Molengao on a big win/place, exacta wheels, and tri keys, and absolutely can't believe how poor he looked. Going into the stretch I thought I had this thing won, only to see him give out and die throughout the stretch. I really thought Lava Man was a sucker play due to his travels and lack of races on the new artificial surface, and still can't believe the race played out as it did. I'm not sure whether to hang it on Molengao having nothing in the take, a poor ride by Espinoza, or both. What a huge disappointed that ended my day on a dreadful note....

[kdmfox]

Molengao was the most over hyped horse I ever saw on TVG ... I bought into it ...A good rule of thumb is when everyone is going one way to do the opposite ... At least Christina was her usual lovely self.

[Seattle Slew]

I bet the race in advance and was shocked to see him the same odds as Lava Man. I was expecting 5-2 or 3-1.

I'll probably give him another shot in the Pacific Classic because his odds will soar after this race, but a rider switch will help as well.

Molengao was the most over hyped horse I ever saw on TVG ... I bought into it ...A good rule of thumb is when everyone is going one way to do the opposite ... At least Christina was her usual lovely self.

[Seattle Slew]

Turning for home I thought we could finish no worse than second. For him not to even pass AP Xcellent was pathetic.

[QUOTE=BigBollocks;293743]I crushed Molengao on a big win/place, exacta wheels, and tri keys, and absolutely can't believe how poor he looked. Going into the stretch I thought I had this thing won

[kdmfox]

Molengao was 0-4 against Lava Man going into this race ... Now 0-5 ... I detect a trend.

[BigBollocks]

That's all well and good KDM, and if it were the same surface as last year I would have played Lava Man again (I had him big last year and can remember being somewhat scared at his poor break a year ago). However, if you're not factoring polytrack into your handicapping, I strongly encourage you to do so ASAP.

There have been a lot of strong horses that have come to Hollywood, Keeneland, etc, and find that they simply cannot perform on polytrack. The opposite is true as well. We're also seeing a lot of horses who prevailed on early speed in the past fall by the wayside after getting eaten up on polytrack. The cappers that I know who have been most successful at Hollywood this meet have been cappers that reward ability and past performances based almost exclusively on polytrack workouts/races. Obviously if the horse has yet to run on polytrack, the more inside information you can get on his or her perceived aptitude on the surface the better. Many people are crashing and burning by not respecting the change of surface...

[Seattle Slew]

I didn't realize he was 0-4 against Lava Man. I noticed he lost a couple of times to him, but figured he was sharper for this race and Lava Man was weaker.

Molengao was 0-4 against Lava Man going into this race ... Now 0-5 ... I detect a trend.