[sandyw123]

I'd really like to see him win this one too, but he looked a little more beatable to me in the Haskell. Is it just me?

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

Didn't they eat that fukkin thing already?

[sshz]

At 1/5, he's most likely the winner. The owner and trainer probably wouldn't be running him if he wasn't doing well. He's training well too.

With that said, Saratoga is known as the "Graveyard" for a reason- big favorites often lose. 25% chance of rain on Sat., and the track is deep and tiring.

My plan is to bet a small amount, maybe $200 in a pick 3 or 4 against him while having maybe 4 or 5 other horses in the race. It probably won't win, but if he loses, it will be a major payoff.

[Memento]

He was galloping the last furlong...could have won by 10 lengths. Bob said this horse has gotten stronger and is training incredibly well in CA. If it rains, they might as well not run the race. I think he goes off better than 1/5 (maybe 3/5) because they will be bringing up the "graveyard" stuff. Don't see any reason why I would bet against this horse, but not much value with him either.

[StackinGreen]

Anyone have the PPs? I'm looking forward to most of the G1s

[sshz]

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1839695



There you go....

[sshz]

Here's a bunch of G1's for Sat/Sun from the same site:

http://downthestretchs.com/2015/08/2...with-free-pps/

[payperwhew]

Are you kidding me? He destroyed that field and was only .5 tenths away from the race record after gearing down the last 100 yards......AP is of course beatable as all horses eventually are. But this race only proves that its gonna take the race of a lifetime for another horse to get it done. Wont happen this Saturday. But it will eventually happen.

[Jowframs]

I Disagee
if it comes up sloppy or off-Track
best mud number in the race
#1-Upstart 15-1 ML

[sshz]

American Pharoah will win easily if it's an off track. Go back and look at pedigree of the horse and then you'll understand why.

[sandyw123]

See what you mean. I watched the Haskell again. American Pharoah didn't even have to push to win that race. Keen Ice had to work for 2nd, and Upstart looked gassed. The only money to be made is in the undercard, I'm thinking Frosted and Keen Ice, either order, for 2bd and third- if the track is dry. Maybe Texas Red in there if Keen Ice doesn't like the track.

[Jowframs]

Upstart 2nd Race on the layoff
2-0 at Saratoga!Top Rider!
Do not Dismiss

[mikemca]

I guess if there is a 3 year old horse that can beat him it's Texas Red. And I think the decision to run him here was all the Zayats(owners) because Baffert is not good at Saratoga and if it was up to him I think he would have trained him up to the BC Classic. The owners probably think he is unbeatable and will parade him around anywhere.

Upstart is the biggest factor . He looks like the only one that could make Pharoah run fast early.He may scratch and run in the PA Derby in a couple weeks. If that happens Pharoah is alone on the lead setting any pace he wants.

IMO if he were to get beat it would be by a closer . Which is pretty much the whole field except Upstart .That's why his participation is so important to Texas Red's chances. Don't see any colt that can run with him early and then kick away from him.

[sshz]

The issue with Upstart is the inside post in a race desperately void of speed, other than A.P. All of these horses are basically closers, which means A.P. is going to have an easy time of it out front. A.P. most likely will have plenty left to close well.

And Upstart from the inside is not good as he will get boxed early and behind a couple of horses most of the race. He'll save ground which is a good thing, but I expect to see A.P. in the lead the whole way around the track.

Looking at the Brisnet speed figures for the early pace in the last 3 races:

Upstart: 94/73/101
A.P.: 98/94/108
Texas Red : 90/91/78
Frosted: 85/89/67
Keen Ice: 80/89/60

A.P. is clearly the only speed. I've looked at the race numerous ways and as much as I'd like a longer shot to make some money, it won't happen in this race. If Upstart goes out early with A.P., he can press him for a while, but it's doubtful he'll have anything left in the tank towards the wire.

[Jowframs]

Tvg is guaranteed to pay 5-1 if AP wins
whats that tell us

[sshz]

Yeah, for new customers only AND for a wager of NO MORE than $10.

Big fuckin deal!

[Jowframs]

Then Bet AP

[sshz]

That won't happen, not at 1/5 or 2/5. I may have him in a Pick 5 though with some others.....The early card is competitive though, and there's some nice opportunities.

[CWD]

AP vs Beholder in BC Classic, anyone thinking about that one ?

[sshz]

Steve Haskin, whose opinion I regards above all others, seems to think he could lose. Look it up at Bloodhorse.

[CWD]

Steve Haskin, whose opinion I regards above all others, seems to think he could lose. Look it up at Bloodhorse.

you think smart transition worth a shot at 40-1, thats where hes sitting at my book right now? strange shit happens at saratoga and they say the rail is slow. I might throw $10 maybe $20. Also Keen Ice is at 16-1. If im taking a shot im take with one of the longer ones.

[sshz]

Just saw this....

Rick Violette confirmed today that Upstart will indeed run in the Travers on Saturday.***

[Jowframs]

Smart Transition
has a Shot!

[sshz]

The above tells me they actually think Upstart can win the race. They could have run him in the PA Derby in 3 weeks for a guaranteed 1st or 2nd place but chose to run him here. That speaks largely. One of the contenders now.

Smart Transition: Good jockey switch (positive), BIG move up in class (negative), byers are a bit shy but has run a over a 100 once (neutral). Distance is a real question mark too, but he does has 2 bullets last 2 workouts. I think he's moving up too far against better horses and can't win.

Keen Ice: He's lost 3 straight to American Pharoah- what make you think something will change? His last 2 races show he has a byers over 100 which is a plus and races in only G1 and G2 races but only 1 win in 10 races. Doubtful winner.

Frosted: 3 of last 4 race show over 100 byer but also 3 straight loses to American Pharoah. If anyone can beat Pharoah, this is one of the horses.

Texas Red- Can he make the distance??? 2 1st's and 2 seconds last 4 graded races. Won his only race in Saratoga. Beat Frosted last race. Doubtful.....

So, to put my money where my mouth is, my bet is....

coming later.....

[Jowframs]

Ha,ha
now your talkin
sshz

[CWD]

The above tells me they actually think Upstart can win the race. They could have run him in the PA Derby in 3 weeks for a guaranteed 1st or 2nd place but chose to run him here. That speaks largely. One of the contenders now.

Smart Transition: Good jockey switch (positive), BIG move up in class (negative), byers are a bit shy but has run a over a 100 once (neutral). Distance is a real question mark too, but he does has 2 bullets last 2 workouts. I think he's moving up too far against better horses and can't win.

Keen Ice: He's lost 3 straight to American Pharoah- what make you think something will change? His last 2 races show he has a byers over 100 which is a plus and races in only G1 and G2 races but only 1 win in 10 races. Doubtful winner.

Frosted: 3 of last 4 race show over 100 byer but also 3 straight loses to American Pharoah. If anyone can beat Pharoah, this is one of the horses.

Texas Red- Can he make the distance??? 2 1st's and 2 seconds last 4 graded races. Won his only race in Saratoga. Beat Frosted last race. Doubtful.....

So, to put my money where my mouth is, my bet is....

coming later.....

if AP doesnt fire, whch is always a possibility with any horse, the race is up for grabs and imo you could make a strong argument for maybe 3-4 horses.theres just so many saying its a cant lose scenario for him its kind of scary and its times like this when these favs seem to lose, it just has that feeling for me. he was all out in the derby at this same distance and that is my concern, i think this is his toughest race since then, im still deciding if its worth a shot tho.

dilemma for me is my book right now is begging action on a few. upstart at 25-1, smart transition 40-1, keen ice 16-1, the rest up to 100-1.

[sshz]

At those odds, it's definitely worth taking a shot against him..........that would be crazy NOT to when you can get better odds than trackside.

[sshz]

As promised, my bet is listed below. But first, some comments....

Obviously, with Am. Pharoah already beating everyone else who matters in the race, he's the likely winner and I'd say about an 80%-85% chance of that happening. So, about 85 out of 100 times they race he'd win. BUT, the 15-20 times he loses you'll have a monster score. I'm figuring the Pick 4, which is the bet I've decided to make, will pay around 6X higher than normal if he loses. My plan was to throw him out totally and go deep in the Travers hoping he somehow loses i.e. gets bumped or roughed up by someone, misses the break, loses a shoe, doesn't like the track, tired from a long campaign, etc., etc. I fully expect him to win though and decided to keep him in anyway hoping that some of the longer shots hit in the earlier races and I get my money back.

Notes: The Kings Bishop (Race 8) is easily the hardest race of the grouping, and the Priority One Jets Forego (Race 9) is the easiest. So deep in R8 and light in R9. I thought if American Pharoah does lose, only 3 other horses could realistically get it done. Here's the actual bet thru Xpressbet. Good luck to all and don't be afraid to post your bets too.....

08/29

2:27 PM

Saratoga Thoroughbred

8

$0.50

P4 (PWHL)

2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11 / 5, 6, 7 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 / 1, 2, 4, 6

$336.00

[sshz]

OK, 1st race was won by the #11 horse Runhappy. He was the 7th favorite in the race at 11-1 and paid $24.60 A very good start into a pool of over $2 million. The next race is my narrow race and the only race I'm worried about not hitting......

[Jowframs]

10 is Dangerous

[sshz]

So I escaped the only race I was worried about. The 8/5 favorite, Private Zone won and beat two 7/2 contenders. It paid $5.20 but I bet the race knocked out 2/3 of the remaining tickets. My guess now is that with over 2,000,000 tickets to start, there are only around 70,000 live tickets left. On to he Sword Dancer Stakes with 6 horses with M-L of 10-1 or less. I have everyone BUT a 30-1 ML #3 horse. If I can beat the 8/5 ML #2 horse, I'll be in pretty good shape going into the Travers.

[Jowframs]

Throw that ticket away
you left the #2 offf
lord

[JJJ]

damn would of been great if you had the 7-4,750

[CWD]

Tvg is guaranteed to pay 5-1 if AP wins
whats that tell us

nice pull. this was one of the early signs for me to try and beat him this race.

[sshz]

Well disappointing after Am. Pharoah lost and still wasn't able to cash.......but, but, but....no buts I guess.