[Buckandadime]

Does Baffert hold Dortmund out of the Preakness to give AP a better chance of winning the race?

[BGboothA]

I don't think so...but it is an interesting thought process.

Dortmund really had no excuses on Saturday, he had the lead with soft fractions and really couldn't hold on to much of anything.

[Buckandadime]

Yeah. I thought it was his to lose..... He did. I was just thinking, if he could talk the owners into it, pull the horse to help his odds of winning the Triple.. With the shorter race and depending on who enters that didn't run in the derby it will probably be a 2 horse race.. I dunno... Thanks for your input and all of the great info you give here!!

[BGboothA]

Another note on this, is the owner. Its a completely different owner group that owns Dortmund and AP. Dortmund ran well enough to give hope to his owner group to try the Preakness.

I would say there is a 90% chance that Dortmund runs.

[mikemca]

If Pharoah goes forward in Preakness their isn't a horse alive that will beat him.

[chaka]

Dortmund should skip,preakness and freshen up for belmont

Thought he had it turning for home but no kick . Exciting but .disappointing
sux having the top 5 horses but keyed dortmund vs AP

is there anyplace one can figure what the $1 super would have been with these finishes?
dortmund
firing line
ap
frosted

And

dortmund
firing line
frosted
danzig moon

[trytrytry]

Dortmund is probably the reason American Pharaoh won the Derby. firing line alone on top with no pressure would have crushed. and if Am Phar had to run and fight head to head .. maybe they both die and frosted wins it.

[StackinGreen]

I was wondering what the $1 would have been if it went Firing Line/AP/Dort

6f was just ok as I have said (1:11) before, though, 1/4 and 1/2 were 23 change and 27 change ... not slow

What was the top fig for AP in that race? 2:03 is slow, and I know Roman's PF was -50, so I'm thinking it wasn't a very fast race generally.

[BGboothA]

I was wondering what the $1 would have been if it went Firing Line/AP/Dort

6f was just ok as I have said (1:11) before, though, 1/4 and 1/2 were 23 change and 27 change ... not slow

What was the top fig for AP in that race? 2:03 is slow, and I know Roman's PF was -50, so I'm thinking it wasn't a very fast race generally.

2:03 isn't very fast, but Trakus shows us an interesting story.

[ATTACH]Takus Info[/ATTACH]

Other than Frosted, AP ran a monster of a race. Firing line ran 29 feet less than AP, at 8ft lengths that an extra 3.5 lengths...Dortmund really had no excuse as he ran 8+ lengths shorter than the winner.

And yes, Frosted ran a monster of a race considering the start and the soft fractions.

[DRB]

TryTryTry : I think you nailed it. American Pharaoh had the trip of trips stalking Dortmund.
Sometimes I think it isn't just the time ( but 47 and change is probably a full second slower than derby average )
but the way the jock had the chance to place the horse in the garden spot is important.
I cannot remember a Derby where the same 3 horses ran the merry-go -round trip like the other day.
Firing Line made him dig in and work for it and he answered the call.
Stacking : Since the trifecta it paid $101 for a dollar at least triple that with Firing Line on top .. maybe more given the size of the field. I would have liked the 10-18-8 combo myself!
The pick 4 paid over $500 ( I missed the first leg darn it which was a difficult grass race) would have paid at least $2000
for the same 50 cent combo.
Chaka : In general, the super is really hard to estimate. But the one you list with dortmund on top and AP 3rd., probably in the Dime ballpark since it paid $634 and we are reversing the 2 chalks. The one with AP off the board completely , maybe 3-4 Dimes for the $1 ? Look at it this way : I would say 99% of the superfecta tickets had AP on them somewhere.

We'll see how things develop and the Preakness field will probably shape up by later this week but unless Baffert sees something problematic with Dortmund he runs both of them. Will anybody come out of the woodwork ??

[StackinGreen]

I agree, with Firing Line on top your in the $320-370 range for the tri.

I had Tepin in the first leg of the pick 3, but not on the tickets that had Private Zone, Finnegan's and AP. I had all of these on some of my tickets, the problem was, Tepin was such an outside play in the 1st leg that I had only a few with it in the next legs (I had Bayern and C. Zee only in leg 2 on the Tepin ticket). Leparoux is the new Albarado. He's sucked for a long time, but every once in a while he has a huge day or a huge upset. Incidentally, Albarado and Leparoux rocked it out for me with Promise Me Silver and Power Alert on Friday. Great wins at 5-1 for each.

SG

[Buckandadime]

We'll see how things develop and the Preakness field will probably shape up by later this week but unless Baffert sees something problematic with Dortmund he runs both of them. Will anybody come out of the woodwork ??

I envision a short field and odds like Big Brown had when he won the Preakness........ 0.20

[DRB]

I just got this from DRF website :



2015 Potential Preakness Field

HORSE	TRAINER	JOCKEY	LAST RACE, FINISH
American Pharoah	Bob Baffert	Victor Espinoza	Ky Derby, 1st
Bodhisattva	Jose Corrales	Trevor McCarthy	Tesio, 1st
Carpe Diem	Todd Pletcher	undecided	Ky Derby, 10th
Competitive Edge	Todd Pletcher	undecided	Pat Day Mile, 1st
Danzig Moon	Mark Casse	undecided	Ky Derby, 5th
Divining Rod	Arnaud Delacour	undecided	Lexington, 1st
Dortmund	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia	Ky Derby, 3rd
Firing Line	Simon Callaghan	Gary Stevens	Ky Derby, 2nd
Materiality	Todd Pletcher	undecided	Ky Derby, 6th