[BGboothA]

Looking to play some Monday Morning Parx, the weather looks cold, but the track looks good. Will be posting some thoughts here for the first few races. Mainly because I am bored.

[BGboothA]

Alright I am playing in the Derby Wars $300 PARX game so we will be playing a little different than if I was making some cash bets on these races.

Race 1
Playing these tournaments is about value, I have no reason to play a horse that will pay me less than 7 or 8 bucks in a tournament style like this. Going to look for value and hope to hit 3-4 of the races and try to score in the top 3 here. With that in mind, I liked the 6 coming in a 9/2, but he was a scratch, so probably not a good bet there. The 4 looks clearly the best and is on top of my list, but has no value at less than even money.

I am going to take a shot with our SPDBET horse here the 1 KATAVINA who is on the inside rail, has the early speed in a short 6f race. Looking back at his PPs he hasn't ran well lately, but has a couple of good races in his past and even if he holds on to the place money here he could be worth a decent price in the tournament.

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[BGboothA]

Race 1
I am going to take a shot with our SPDBET horse here the 1 KATAVINA who is on the inside rail, has the early speed in a short 6f race. Looking back at his PPs he hasn't ran well lately, but has a couple of good races in his past and even if he holds on to the place money here he could be worth a decent price in the tournament.

The 4 won easily at 3/5, 7 other players had the 4 and the 1 ran 4th. Ohh well it was worth a shot, I am going to be down about $5 to 7 people, no big deal at all in one of these tournaments.

Time to look at race 2.

[BGboothA]

Race 2

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8 Furlongs on the dirt, nothing really gained from the first race as far as knowledge goes, the 4 in the first held from the front, but he should have and was a clear favorite, so you can't pull any idea of a clear bias there at all. Looking at the 2nd race our top pick is the 6 E LIZZY, but again the ML favorite of 5/2 probably isn't going to give me the value I want here. I really like the 4 ALEANDRIA who has the top E1 Value (5.63) and the top E2 Value (31.0) the only concern is the 3 horse just to his inside is the other early speed. The 8 claims to be an Early speed horse, but the 4.2 E2 value says something different. There could be a nice speed duel between the 4 and the 3 allowing someone to come from behind. The 9 HIBERNIA MYSTERY is out top L8 value (29.6) and our top Late pace value of 31.9, but will likely be moving from way behind the field.

This race is really shaping up for the 6 who will likely get the first run at the leaders and will likely have enough to hold on. If I can get 3-1 by some crazy reason on the 6 I will play the 6, but likley will be playing the 9 or 4 hoping for some value.

[BGboothA]

Race 2

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8 Furlongs on the dirt, nothing really gained from the first race as far as knowledge goes, the 4 in the first held from the front, but he should have and was a clear favorite, so you can't pull any idea of a clear bias there at all. Looking at the 2nd race our top pick is the 6 E LIZZY, but again the ML favorite of 5/2 probably isn't going to give me the value I want here. I really like the 4 ALEANDRIA who has the top E1 Value (5.63) and the top E2 Value (31.0) the only concern is the 3 horse just to his inside is the other early speed. The 8 claims to be an Early speed horse, but the 4.2 E2 value says something different. There could be a nice speed duel between the 4 and the 3 allowing someone to come from behind. The 9 HIBERNIA MYSTERY is out top L8 value (29.6) and our top Late pace value of 31.9, but will likely be moving from way behind the field.

This race is really shaping up for the 6 who will likely get the first run at the leaders and will likely have enough to hold on. If I can get 3-1 by some crazy reason on the 6 I will play the 6, but likley will be playing the 9 or 4 hoping for some value.

The 6 won easily kinda like I thought with the 3 and the 4 dueling it out...I ended up playing the 4 thanks to the 9-1 PT odds, and scored some money in second. I was the only player on the 4, and there were 6 players on the 6, so we will see how it shakes out, but I should see a decent return in the place money.

[BGboothA]

Race 2 place money paid $8.80 on the 4 moves me up into 6th place, with 5 races left. Just to reiterate a point, the 6 paid 5.20/3.00 win place so a total of 8.20, the place money on the 4 paid 8.80, in these tourneys, it seems like a good idea to always play the value instead of the likely winner.

[BGboothA]

Race 3

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Here is a short 5.5f sprint with a total of 11 horses entered, but then there was a total of 5 scratches...I liked the one on paper, but he scratched so again.....

Well I was getting ready to type up how I liked the 6 here in the next race, when PARX cancelled the rest of the card...looks like a refund of my money. Dang. I liked where I was too.