[picantel]

Let's use this thread of the next week to discuss the upcoming races for the breeders crown. I saw alot of horses not trying to win and I think we can do very well. Post any horses and the race # and date they were in that you want me to notice and I will watch the race replay. I will post more tomorrow but this one stands out bigtime.

11/19/05
Race #1
Merles Pearl

I played him last weekend and it was pure agony. This was a horse coming from montreal undefeated. His times were about 2 seconds slower than some of the top horses in that race but he was winning by 5+ lengths each time and you know he just hand rode him and the horse was capable of more. He pulled out from 9th into the outside flow and immediately the horse in front of him backed him up causing him to take back abruptly and spot the entire field 2 lenths in front of him. He swung around 7 wide in the stretch which of course is a killer and closed from 10th to 3rd beaten by 2 lengths. they have him closing the same time as pure ivory but that is a bunch of crap. He clearly had a better late kick and was not actively urging him on. Watch the replay. The driver knew he had enough to qualify and just sat on him. I also watched the drivers. The driver for pure ivory was urging that horse on heavily. The driver for merles pearl was tippy tapping his horse with no heavy urging. 8/1 ML next week and he goes from the 10 hole to the rail. This horse has showed early speed in every race this year except the elimination. this is my longshot I just chumped the field for a price next time pick o the week. Will post more tomorrow and I have a few. Tell me what your analysis is.

[picantel]

The Charles Singer Memorial
11/18/05
Race #4
#7 Aeronautess

yah I know I am on crack on this one. She went off 70-1 last week. Why do I like her? Firstly, she has raced pretty much exclusively in stakes. Held her own last year until the wear and tear told on her and she had a bad breaking problem. Left from the 7hole last week to settle in the 2hole. Immediately shuffled back to 4th and the front end horse died pretty badly nearing the stretch taking her way way back. When she finally found room about 1/2 down the stretch Lachance cut her over hard to find room which took away her momentum. She was closing very well until he stupidly tried to split horses but in the end had to check back. They have her closing quarter at 2/5 and 3/5 behind the 2nd and 3rd faves and an even quarter with the fave but don't let that fool you. She closed faster than Angel Pie and was coming on faster until Lachance tried to split horses. I am not sure I would take her from the outside but this horses has a realistic chance of getting in the money and could take it all with a good trip over 30-1 odds. Watch the replay and let me know. Watch her closely and then rewatch the stretch run and the horses around her.

[mad]

Hi Picantel,
What source do you use for form and video if you don't mind me asking. Would like to through my eye over some american fields.

Thanks.

[picantel]

Meadowlands
11/18/05
Race #9
#1 Northern Ensign

This is his 2nd race back after a qualifier. The week before he wins from 1st over and parked most of the mile. He does have a breaking problem though so he is driven very carefully. Draws the rail and settles back in 3rd. Slow first quarter of 29'2. At the half he is shuffled back to 5th boxed in on the rail in another 29'2 quarter. Coming near the stretch he is for some reason gapping back 2 lengths but when he reaches the stretch run he pulls through the field about 4 wide and comes on in the stretch. While Strong Yankee is getting whipping hard notice how Zeron(who does suck) is tippy tapping with the whip. He wants to urge him on but does not want to break him. Northern still had the fastest close in the field by far though by 2/5 even after not getting into the horse hardcore. What do you think he is gonna do in a half million dollar race? Let me know.

[picantel]

http://www.racereplays.com

I bought like 750 replays for like $40.

Buy my programs from http://www.tvg.com

[mad]

Thanks.

[picantel]

Meadowlands
11/18/05
Race 10
#1 Sir Valahad

Yes Mali looked awesome in this race but keep 2 things in mind. Firstly the fractions were fast to a closer like Mali and 2nd he did get the 2nd over cover. Sir Valahad was not so lucky. Settled in 4th which is the kiss of death. You are either 1st over or shuffled back hardcore. He chose to shuffle him back to last. Here is what gets me in this race. Yes Mali is not whipping hard and seems to run just a little faster than Valahad but watch the race again. The stretch is over 1/3 over BEFORE Gingras pulls him off the rail. He does not just gently move him over but instead violently pulls him to his right about 7 wide for clearance. Here is what next stands out in line. Even when he has clearing sailing room he is pulling on the horses mouth. Look at the horses head coming down the stretch. He kills off his momentum bringing him that hard for clearance and for some unknown reason does not have enough control to let him loose. any horse let loose has his head facing forward but not valahad. Once again let me know after you watch the replay. Watch the head closely.

[kdmfox]

Meadowlands
11/19/05
Race 8
#3 Palone Ranger

Boxed in entire stretch ... Small break ... No room ... Plenty of pace ... I'm thinking this is my horse for the final 2yo cg ... Watch the replay.

[picantel]

He definately woulda won easily. I will wait to see who he races against and probably play him.

[kdmfox]

http://racing.ustrotting.com/card_en...26&race_type=6

[moses millsap]

I have TVG on my satellite, I do my best to stay off that channel

[picantel]

fox can u check xpressbet? I cannot get in it. thanks

[kdmfox]

I don't see Sir Valahad in any of the trot finals.

[kdmfox]

I don't see Sir Valahad in any of the trot finals.

Didn't get in the final?

[picantel]

he got like 3rd I think. I will check later.

[kdmfox]

Meadowlands
11/18/05
Race 10
#1 Sir Valahad

Yes Mali looked awesome in this race but keep 2 things in mind. Firstly the fractions were fast to a closer like Mali and 2nd he did get the 2nd over cover. Sir Valahad was not so lucky. Settled in 4th which is the kiss of death. You are either 1st over or shuffled back hardcore. He chose to shuffle him back to last. Here is what gets me in this race. Yes Mali is not whipping hard and seems to run just a little faster than Valahad but watch the race again. The stretch is over 1/3 over BEFORE Gingras pulls him off the rail. He does not just gently move him over but instead violently pulls him to his right about 7 wide for clearance. Here is what next stands out in line. Even when he has clearing sailing room he is pulling on the horses mouth. Look at the horses head coming down the stretch. He kills off his momentum bringing him that hard for clearance and for some unknown reason does not have enough control to let him loose. any horse let loose has his head facing forward but not valahad. Once again let me know after you watch the replay. Watch the head closely.

pic ... This horse is not in the BC as he's a 7yo ... That last race must not have been a BC elim ... He's in Race 6, post #1, winners over 25k lifetime ... ML 8-1 ... If he can deal with the #9 Nelson November a good price is in store although I think the posted ML is a bit high for this horse.

[picantel]

yep I saw it last night thanks. has the rail again but needs to show more early speed to get closer and not get boxed in. I think he can do it.

[picantel]

fox just letting you know I got xpressbet up and going now for myself so thanks for letting me use yours. Wonder how long I can use it without depositing though lol.

[picantel]

fox- I was checking out saturdays northfield plays and I came upon something. Keep in mind maybe he drives for the certain trainer or maybe the other horse was purchased but I will check it out later. 2 starts back I told you how merriman jumped off the fave and got on thunder bird. He then won 2 straight with that horse. However, get this crap. In race 10 on sat night thunder bird from the 2hole is 3-1 ML. Falcon X is coming from the 7hole and it 8-1 ML. Merriman jumps off thunder bird and jumps on falcon x. Why would he get off an inside horse coming off two straight wins to jump on a longie? I asked myself that question 2 starts ago when he jumped on the at the time 10-1 ML thunder bird and he apparently knew something. Study is later and let me know what you think.

[picantel]

last race

Thunder Bird
RACE: 8 - 11/19/2005 - NORTHFIELD PARK - Purse: $ 5,600 - CLASS: 10000CL
THUNDER BIRD 2 3/2 2°/T 1°/H 1/2 1/NK 1:56.1 Merriman, Aaron E

Falcon X
COLONIAL DOWNS - Purse: $ 6,600 - CLASS: nw1760L4cd
FALCON X 4 1/1Q 1/1Q 1/Q 1/H 5/6T 1:53.2 29.3 *1.40

I do not usually like milers on a half mile track but:
1)falcon x is a front ender which helps at northfield
2)merriman likes him.

This could be the play of the night IF IF IF he can get the lead. a big if. He did set some wicked fractions.

Time: 27.4 55.4 (28.0) 1:23.4 (28.0) 1:52.0 (28.1)