Originally Posted by
mikemca
I've learned that with turf racing you can pretty much throw speed figures out the window and look at everything else
2nd or 3rd off the bench = peak effort
Class - all kinds - some 25k claimers are par with 50k claimers some are like 5ks at the mountain.A msw at a B track like Monmouth/Delaware/GP in the summer/etc... is about the same as a 65k mdn claimer at the spa.sometimes even weaker
jockey changes(some jocks just can't ride on turf i.e. C Borel while some are much better on turf than dirt i.e. Leparoux/Nakatani
sometimes just a big upgrade from a bug to Castellano/Rosario can signal intent
trip handicapping(watching replays) is most relevant with turf racing...for example if you see on a replay that a horse was just stuck in traffic with no where to go...that isn't in the pps , in fact the horse probably got a shytty speed fig because of it
Courses - if a horse is coming off a front running fade at Delaware/Laurel/Pimlico to just about anywhere you can upgrade the effort...Those tracks almost always are tiring and favor closers....works the other way to...a horse that has been spinning its hooves in the stretch somewhere else then gets on DEL/PIM/LRL and bang that big kick actually works
my favorite is a horse that makes a subtle close into a snails pace
I could go on forever , I learn something new everyday