[MoneylineExpress]

2 years ago I correctly predicted Animal Kingdom. Last year I'll Have Another was in my list of 6 contenders but I failed to pick him out. Let's get on with it. Here is the field for the derby.

1. Onyx (50/1): Joe Bravo
2. Oxbow (33/1): Gary Stevens
3. Revolutionary (9/1): Calvin Borel
4. Golden Soul (50/1): Robby Albarado
5. Normandy Invasion (9/1): Javier Castellano
6. Mylute (16/1): Rosie Napravnik
7. Giant Finish (50/1): Jose L. Espinoza
8. Goldencents (11/2): Kevin Krigger
9. Overanalyze (14/1): Rafael Bejarano
10. Palace Malice (25/1): Mike Smith
11. Lines of Battle (33/1): Ryan Moore
12. Itsmyluckyday (12/1): Elvis Trujillo
13. Falling Sky (50/1): Luis Saez
14. Verrazano (4/1): John R. Velazquez
15. Charming Kitten (25/1): Edgar Prado
16. Orb (4/1): Joel Rosario
17. Will Take Charge (20/1): Jon Court
18. Frac Daddy (40/1): Victor Lebron
19. Java's War (16/1): Julien Leparoux
20. Vyjack (14/1): Garrett Gomez

• The 1st set of criteria is to eliminate any horse whose last prep race was not 1 1/8th mile or more. The 1 ¼ mile distance is a lot to ask for a horse stretching out for the 1^st time. No derby winner has overcome it dating back the last 20 years. Eliminate: #17 Will Take Charge
• 2nd step and one of the most important is to throw out any horse who didn't finish 4th or better in its final prep race. Preferably 3rd or better. A horse who comes in to the race in bad form doesn't find it. Past history proves it. Dating back to 1962 no horse has finished worse than 4th in its final prep race and has worn the roses. Eliminate: #2 Oxbow
  
  2012 I'll Have Another Santa Anita Derby 1st
  2011 Animal Kingdom Spiral 1st
  2010 Super Saver Arkansas Derby 2nd
  2009 Mine That Bird Sunland Derby 4th 2008 Big Brown Florida Derby 1st
  2007 Street Sense Blue Grass 2nd
  2006 Barbaro Florida Derby 1st
  2005 Giacomo Santa Anita D 4th
  2004 Smarty Jones Arkansas Derby 1st
  2003 Funny Cide Wood Mememorial 2nd
  2002 War Emblem Illinois Derby 1st
  2001 Monarchos Wood Memorial 2nd
  2000 Fus. Pegasus Wood Memorial 1st
  1999 Charismatic Lexington 1st
  1998 Real Quiet Santa Anita D 2nd
  1997 Silver Charm Santa Anita D 2nd
  1996 Grindstone Arkansas Derby 2nd
  1995 Thunder Gulch Blue Grass 4th
  1994 Go for Gin Wood Memorial 2nd
  1993 Sea Hero Blue Grass 4th
  1992 Lil E. Tee Arkansas Derby 2nd
  1991 Strike the Gold Blue Grass 1st
  1990 Unbridled Blue Grass 3rd
  1989 Sunday Silence Santa Anita Derby 1st
  1988 Winning Colors Santa Anita Derby 1st
  1987 Alysheba Blue Grass 3rd
  1986 Ferdinand Santa Anita Derby 3rd
  1985 Spend a Buck Garden State 1st
  1984 Swale Lexington 2nd
  1983 Sunny's Halo Arkansas Derby 1st
  1982 Gato Del Sol Blue Grass 2nd
  1981 Pleasant Colony Wood Memorial 1st
  1980 Genuine Risk Wood Memorial 3rd
  1979 Spectacular Bid Blue Grass 1st
  1978 Affirmed Hollywood Derby 1st
  1977 Seattle Slew Wood Memorial 1st
  1976 Bold Forbes Wood Memorial 1st
  1975 Foolish Pleasure Wood Memorial 1st
  1974 Cannonade CD Allowance 1st
  1973 Secretariat Wood Memorial 3rd
  1972 Riva Ridge Blue Grass 1st
  1971 Canonero II Venezuela 3rd
  1970 Dust Commander Blue Grass 1st
  1969 Majestic Prince CD Allowance 1st
  1968 Forward Pass Blue Grass 1st
  1967 Proud Clarion Blue Grass 2nd
  1966 Kauai King Gov. Gold Cup 1st
  1965 Lucky Debonair Blue Grass 1st
  1964 Northern Dancer Blue Grass 1st
  1963 Chateaugay Blue Grass 1st
  1962 Decidedly Blue Grass 2^nd
  
  
  

[MoneylineExpress]

Next set of criteria is to throw out any horse who didn't win a race at the age of 2. Late bloomers rarely win the derby. Eliminate: #14 Verranzo

All the horses have a dosage index below 4, so none are eliminated by that criteria.

The next set of criteria specifies that in either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse must have been first or second with a furlong to go. This very important because 46 of the last 48 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second with a furlong remaining in the Derby, the two exceptions being Grindstone in 1996 and Giacomo in 2005. Grindstone won the Kentucky Derby after being fourth with a furlong to go. Giacomo won the roses after being sixth at the eighth pole.
Eliminate: #4 Golden Soul, #5 Normandy Invasion, #9 Overanalyze, #18 Frac Daddy, #19 Java's War

Cut the field down to 12 with confidence.

1. Onyx (50/1): Joe Bravo
3. Revolutionary (9/1): Calvin Borel
6. Mylute (16/1): Rosie Napravnik
7. Giant Finish (50/1): Jose L. Espinoza
8. Goldencents (11/2): Kevin Krigger
10. Palace Malice (25/1): Mike Smith
11. Lines of Battle (33/1): Ryan Moore
12. Itsmyluckyday (12/1): Elvis Trujillo
13. Falling Sky (50/1): Luis Saez
15. Charming Kitten (25/1): Edgar Prado
16. Orb (4/1): Joel Rosario
20. Vyjack (14/1): Garrett Gomez

[Kav]

I look forward to this thread every year around derby time! Thank you in advance!

[Heppy10]

i like the 3, 15, 16 with the 15 horse coming from the clouds to win it

[gembo12]

Yes you did. Can't wait to see who it's gets narrowed down to.

[BGboothA]

Love this thread

[nvrlose37]

Lol at Charming Kitten and Java's War being different. They both were basically right next to each other in the BG stakes but that means JW can't do it?

[MoneylineExpress]

From here points will be added of the list of 12.

• Give a point to any horse that won a mile or longer race as a 2 year old.

• Next is to give a point to any horse which ran one of its best 2 beyer speed figures in its last race. This is a big knock if the horse did not. A horse needs to be in top form to win the Kentucky Derby.
• Give points to horses which raced against graded stakes competition prior to April as a 3 year old. Reason: battle tested.
• Give a point to a horse that has won a graded stakes race. This shows a horse has the class to win.
• This is an important one. The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole. This shows a horse that does not like to be passed coming down the stretch. Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010, with Canonero II in 1971. (Mylute, Golden Cents, It's My Lucky Day, Falling Sky, Vyjack all fail in this category)

Almost all of the past derby winners of the past have 4 or 5 points.

Black Onyx (5)
Revolutionary (4)
Mylute (3)
Giant Finish (3)
Golden Cents (4)
Place Malice (3)
Lines of Battle (4)
It's My Lucky Day (3)
Falling Sky (2)
Charming Kitten (4)
Orb (5)
Vyjack (3)


I'll wager dollars to doughnuts that the winner of the race will come from the field above and highly likely it will be a horse in bold. Also another knock on Palace Malice is blinkers for the 1st time which is not a sign of confidence. Since 1987, no horse has added blinkers in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Derby.

[MoneylineExpress]

Finally its time to take account speed figures. We’re not looking for a horse that has only run 1 competitive race. We want a horse with a good competitive foundation that’s run 2 competitive races. The KentuckyDerby is a very demanding race and rarely can a horse win it without at least 2 strong efforts prior to the race. So we will the the horses 2nd best beyer #. I do not have figures ofr Lines of Battle so that horse is an X factor.

Black Onyx (81)
Revolutionary (95)
Golden Cents (98)
Lines of Battle (?)
Charming Kitten (83)
Orb (97)

Beyer numbers have a lot ofvariance. I like to consider any horsewithin 5 Beyer points of the leader a contender.

That leaves me with.

Golden Cents (98)
Orb (97)
Revolutionary (95)
Lines of Battle (?)

[MoneylineExpress]

Golden Cents (98)
Orb (97)
Revolutionary (95)
Lines of Battle (?)

The main knock I have on Revolutionary is Borel has never ridden this horse before which has not translated to success in the derby. You really need to know your horse in a race like this. And I belive the trainer of Lines of Battle is making his 1st derby appearance which has also not been good.

That leaves me with Orb and Golden Cents for a chalky derby. I like Orb based on the fact that Golden Cents was passed down the stretch in the San Felipe.

Play: Orb (to win)

[shopbar picks]

Great stuff thanx

[pulledclear]

Nice write up! The problems I have with Goldencents are

1. May bounce off that last race like Dreaming Of Julia did today.
2. Will DRUG Oneill be able to mask the chemicals in Kentucky.
3. Running style is wrong for this race. A CLOSER WILL WIN.


Been watching Orb down here at Gulfstream, may have peaked too early and Johnny V chose Verranzano.


Revolutionary figures and Lines of Battle is a very live longshot getting first time Lasix.

[jameski999]

Nice write up! The problems I have with Goldencents are

1. May bounce off that last race like Dreaming Of Julia did today.
2. Will DRUG Oneill be able to mask the chemicals in Kentucky.
3. Running style is wrong for this race. A CLOSER WILL WIN.


Been watching Orb down here at Gulfstream, may have peaked too early and Johnny V chose Verranzano.


Revolutionary figures and Lines of Battle is a very live longshot getting first time Lasix.

Who u like pulledclear? Any live horses on the undercard?

[BGboothA]

Nice write up! The problems I have with Goldencents are

1. May bounce off that last race like Dreaming Of Julia did today.
2. Will DRUG Oneill be able to mask the chemicals in Kentucky.
3. Running style is wrong for this race. A CLOSER WILL WIN.


Been watching Orb down here at Gulfstream, may have peaked too early and Johnny V chose Verranzano.


Revolutionary figures and Lines of Battle is a very live longshot getting first time Lasix.

I don't know if I would call what happened to DOJ bouncing. She was destroyed at the gate and still came back for a solid third. I thought she ran great considering.

[OnenOnlyMush]

You did not predict Animal Kingdom. You should have. You did all that work, broke it down like no one I ever seen. Your system pointed to Animal Kingdom but YOU told us to bet Pants On Fire. This year you once again narrow it down to 4 but tell us to take Orb. I'm gonna take the other 3.

[bfour]

ORB!!!!!!

[pulledclear]

You did not predict Animal Kingdom. You should have. You did all that work, broke it down like no one I ever seen. Your system pointed to Animal Kingdom but YOU told us to bet Pants On Fire. This year you once again narrow it down to 4 but tell us to take Orb. I'm gonna take the other 3.

Nice job dck head. The guy handed you the winner. lol you are a MUSH.

[Weems2k]

Well, I had ORB right, too bad that damn Revolutionary couldn't put in high gear for 2nd..

[Easy-Rider 66]

Good call OP

[vegasreaper]

Not only a mush but a dik!!!! Pick your own horses and don't visit threads..As far as YOU MONEYLINE YOU DA MAN!!! Thanks once again my brother

[OnenOnlyMush]

Yes. I am a huge penetrating MUSH. My apologies to Moneyline Express for doubting. This really is a good way to break down the derby. Three years in a row now that you've had the winner in your final 4 or 5. I shouldn't have even brought my negative comments in here.

[OnenOnlyMush]

Mush, yes. Dick or dickhead, not so much.

[gembo12]

You are the man Moneyline Express. I had already done my own math using your formula from two years ago that I saved. You just confirmed it. Thanks.

[ex50warrior]

Nice job MoneyLine!

[shopbar picks]

Wow