[Rbyrne]

Only live about 30 minutes away from Charles Town and this Saturday is probably their best card of the year with the 1.5 million Charles Town classic the feature race going off at 10:30pm. Game On Dude is a 4-5 fav and I do think he wins as he only has to beat 5 other horses in a small field. I'm posting to get everyone's opinion on the card. It is a 13 race card so if anyone has any info on any of the races post here.

[Rbyrne]

Also very excited to see game on dude race in person....hopefully he goes off at even odds but I highly doubt it he probly goes off at 3-5. Baffert also ships out book review who is in race 11 and already won at Charles town before....also looking into race 8 and like Honour the vow at 5-1 and Volastic at 8-1....I'm looking to make some money this weekend and then get ready for the derby as I already have derby fever (I hit the trifecta last year) horses I like for this years derby are Java's War, Orb, and Goldencents (maybe a front runner wins like War Emblem did in 2002) but if u watch the last 10 or so Kentucky Derby's some crazy things have happened and with no true sprinters in this years race maybe a front runner like Goldencents gets in the winners circle....closers or stalkers have had the most success winning the derby last year ill have another running down a very game bodemiester who had a 5 length lead down the stretch

[Rbyrne]

Wow the horse section is a ghost town

[Easy-Rider 66]

Playing Keeneland, SA, and Golden Gate today. Good luck at Charlestown. Do not have the PP'S for Charlestown or I might have given a pick for the classic.

[str]

It rained very hard yesterday before the 1st race, as you know. The track was sloppy all night. With the sun out and a solid breeze it should dry out enough for them to get the road grader on the track this afternoon if they want to. This will probably take place around 2-3pm. That is typically when they do it, if they do it. If that happens, look for the inside trip horses, not just the speed on the rail, but the inside stalkers and closers to have a solid advantage. Watch the replays of the first couple of races to verify that the track is fair or if indeed the inside is the place to be. Don't think that horses can not close at C.T. They certainly can. It's all about the pressure up front and the duels that take place. Remember, a horse can stay on the rail for much of the race, then swing out and finish in the 3-4 path and still have gained a solid advantage from an inside trip. It's not where they are through the stretch, it's where they are for the most seconds during the entire race.
When you get there and are still in the parking lot, wander over to the chute area of the clubhouse turn. Look under the inside rail and see if the dirt is very smooth like it was just manicured or if it has runoff from the rain last night. If you are not sure or confused, compare the area under the rain on the clubhouse turn to the area under the rail in the chute. They do not groom the small chute area as often as the main track so it may be different. If it is smooth underneath the rail, the grader has been out and there is a solid chance the rail will be much better than the rest of the track. The blade of the road grader is the only way that area gets manicured. If it is not smooth and has clots or runoff marks in it, that means they did not grade the track and it will be fair across the surface or possibly even favor the outside slightly. I say that because looking at last nights results, it shows some of everything, thus pointing to an even, fair surface. That cannot change to an inside track without grading taking place. Because the track has very little pitch to it, it takes C.T. about a week at least to go from inside to outside, whereas tracks like Laurel or Pimlico, with steeper pitch takes about 3 days.
Hope that helps. Good luck tonight.

[BGboothA]

Watch out for #6 CAIXA ELETRONICA in the CT Classic today. Could get a nice price. I am going to key the 6 in a nice trifecta.

6/1,3,5 = $18

Good luck man!

---------------------------------
Other CT races today.

R1 = #1 BELLA THE PRINCESS - should win easily, but may not get any kind of price on this one. But if I can get 2-1 or better I will be all over this horse.

R4 = #3 LUCY'S BOB BOY - Will probably go off well below even odds and probably ins't worth a bet, but if you play horizontals this has to be the easiest single on the board.

R5 = #5 GRECIAN LYRIC - ML 4-1 and will have a shot to run down this field coming down the stretch. If this horse can stay out of trouble around the turn it should finish in the money here.

R09 = #2 DOWN TOWN ALLEN - Another horse that should get a nice pace setup, he is the only early speed and at CT thats an auto bet for me. The small track and an inside post could allow this horse to wire the field without trying.


Good luck man!

Charlestown

[BGboothA]

Great post STR!!!!! Thanks for the read.

[str]

Great post STR!!!!! Thanks for the read.

My pleasure BG. I added to it slightly .

Keep up your good work BG.

[str]

It rained very hard yesterday before the 1st race, as you know. The track was sloppy all night. With the sun out and a solid breeze it should dry out enough for them to get the road grader on the track this afternoon if they want to. This will probably take place around 2-3pm. That is typically when they do it, if they do it. If that happens, look for the inside trip horses, not just the speed on the rail, but the inside stalkers and closers to have a solid advantage. Watch the replays of the first couple of races to verify that the track is fair or if indeed the inside is the place to be. Don't think that horses can not close at C.T. They certainly can. It's all about the pressure up front and the duels that take place. Remember, a horse can stay on the rail for much of the race, then swing out and finish in the 3-4 path and still have gained a solid advantage from an inside trip. It's not where they are through the stretch, it's where they are for the most seconds during the entire race.
When you get there and are still in the parking lot, wander over to the chute area of the clubhouse turn. Look under the inside rail and see if the dirt is very smooth like it was just manicured or if it has runoff from the rain last night. If you are not sure or confused, compare the area under the rain on the clubhouse turn to the area under the rail in the chute. They do not groom the small chute area as often as the main track so it may be different. If it is smooth underneath the rail, the grader has been out and there is a solid chance the rail will be much better than the rest of the track. The blade of the road grader is the only way that area gets manicured. If it is not smooth and has clots or runoff marks in it, that means they did not grade the track and it will be fair across the surface or possibly even favor the outside slightly. I say that because looking at last nights results, it shows some of everything, thus pointing to an even, fair surface. That cannot change to an inside track without grading taking place. Because the track has very little pitch to it, it takes C.T. about a week at least to go from inside to outside, whereas tracks like Laurel or Pimlico, with steeper pitch takes about 3 days.
Hope that helps. Good luck tonight.

It was indeed a rail bias last night. Not a speed bias as I heard someone on TVG say IMO. I say that because a blind 2.00 exacta box of the three inside post positions would have produced a 351.60 return on a 156.00 investment. When an inside bias occurs, it effects cheaper horses much more so than good horses. Reading the charts you will notice that some early races had 30-1 and 40-1 shots running very well. It was not a coincidence. The rail has less cushion than the outer portion, thus the improvement. Conversely, some of those outside horses that failed to fire will be better odds next time and have a huge excuse that will not show up in the form as anything but a poor effort. You will know better than most the real reason the horse did not run well.