Pretty lame turnout for the Robert B LewisStakes, only 4 horses. Which means everyone who starts is guaranteed at least 1 point toward their Derby status. Kinda silly that the points are exactly the same in a race with 4 horses (2 Baffert horses) and then over at Tampa Bay you have the Sam Davis Stakes with 10 horses offering the same thing.
Anyways enough of that crap;
Some thoughts on the three races (before I have really looked at things, that will happen Friday night).
Withers Stakes (Aqueduct) - Weather could play a part in this one, but I am really excited to see how REVOLUTIONARY takes hold after a long break and a big win last time out. Also interested to see how ESCAPEFROMREALITY stretches out to two turns.
Sam F. Davis Stakes (Tampa Bay) - All eyes on DYNAMIC SKY here. A win here could put him back in the Derby talk.
Robert B Lewis Stakes (Santa Anita) - I love HES HAD ENOUGH, with only 4 horses in the race its going to be interesting here. If HHE can pull this off, watch out. I know its a small field, but a late pace horse against a super small field with out much pace.
Thoughts? I am just bored and want to chat horses...lol
Alright lets break these down one at a time.
Withers Stakes @ Aqueduct (2/3/1-6) This is the race I am looking forward to seeing the most of the three. Solely because of the return of the #2 horse REVOLUTIONARY. A good showing here and its clear sailing to Wood Memorial and possibly the Derby. I think REVOLUTIONARY is the best horse in the race and should win this going away if he gets a clean trip. That being said, the 3/5 ML produces ZERO value for me, if it somehow floats up to 2-1 I will jump all over it, but I don't see that happening. I think #3 ESCAPEFROMREALITY may get a nice trip here. I will be watching the pools here to see if a WPS on the 3 will show some value. Other than that, this is one to watch for my future Derby pools and that's about it. The #1 LONG RIVER also shows some potential to complete some exotics on the backside of the exacta or trifecta.
Sam F Davis Stakes @ Tampa Bay (1A/8-4-5) This one features another horse I am starting to look at for future Derby bets in #1A DYNAMIC SKY. Part of me hopes he gets a tough break coming from the 9 hole and doesn't cash here, so I get a better price his next time out. The only play here for me is DYNAMIC SKY. The pace should set up nicely for him, the only other horse I see making a play here could be the #8 FALLING SKY. I will be looking at 3,4,5 to fill out the back end of my exactas.
Robert B Lewis Stakes @ Santa Anita
Who cares it a race with 4 freaking horses in it. We won't learn anything from it, the numbers won't mean anything coming out of it. Its pointless. That being said, I think HESHADENOUGH comes through with a win. If for some crazy reason we can get 3-1 on him, its worth a shot. If FLASHBACK gets bet really hard I may take a look at a quick exacta with HESHADENOUGH and DENS LEGACY. But really this race is pointless. Its just free points for a few of these horses toward Derby qualifying.
In the Sam Davis from TBD going with the #4 My Name Is Michael. Has the best Equibase speed figure in the race at 101. Been running on synthetics at Woodbine and may move forward on dirt. Well rested. 4/1 morning line. For a longer shot play also going with the #9 Midnite Poppa. Improved 10 points on the speed figures last race. Also won last race at TB. 10/1 morning line.
Last edited by Easy-Rider 66; 02-02-13 at 01:52 PM.
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3 Kentucky Derby Prep Races on Saturday
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