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i hate when the odds change after the are off,,,
i handicapp the race, i am on the favorite at 6.5 the are off , and while the are running the horse who is at 5 to 1 jump to 2 to one ,and win goin away,,,,how whe suppose win race when the late money ( problably the stable ) put the smart money at last second,,,buy the way i am big on board waching,,,i like to see where the smart money go,,,,this dont happen on the big track,,,this happen river down,,suffolk,,,small track,,,i never play those track again
you should see the smaller harness tracks do this
It is because the money all the late money is not in yet from the ADW's happens more at smaller tracks
I don't see how winning money in the long run is possible for horse racing.
You don't know what odds you are getting, so how are you supposed to find value? You could bet a horse at 5/1, thinking it has good value, only to see someone dump a bunch of money on it and you wind up getting +350 or something.
Its all in what pools you play into,Originally Posted by yisman
I told this story once but i was playing a pick 4 once at los al. I had a single in a leg that got scratched going to the gate. The rules there state i would recieve the post time fav. So there were two horses close to being the fav. 1 was something like 6-5 and the other 2-1. They went in the gate and the 6-5 won the race. I was happy. Then they show the final results and that horse went to 8-5 and the other moved to 7-5 after the race so i got the other horse instead and that cost me a 4 digit pick 4. Other then that day it always seems my horse goes down during the race. Even though its a big track belmont and aquaduct are notorious for these moves. I know a few years ago penn was talking of closing it down a few seconds earlier to stop this but nothing came from it. I heard on tvg most of these late moves are from the overseas betters but who knows
If you bet longer shots, the reverse will happen more times than not. Odds will move big in your favor.
It does stink when your 5-1 goes off 7-2 after they break though.
wow that sucks
It just happen to me at finger lake .,,,i bet against the favor ,i had the second choice at 2 to 1 ,,and the are off ,,while they running the swich, my got to 6.5 and the favor got second choice,,,the track schould launch on investigation ,,,on those stable who put a ton of money late and decive the publick
when i use to play at araphoe park in colorado i was at the track one day and placed a 10 dollar wager that changed the odds from 6-1 to 5-1
After playing there for a while, i use to watch a guy go and bet 100 bucks on a horse right at the beginning of wager. It would make this horse the fav. Of course a lot of people blindley bet the favs. People would load up on this horse. Right before the race started he would go back up and cancel his ticket and place the 100 on the horse he wanted at much better odds.
You are going to have to take my word for it but trust me when I tell you, most "stables" are not putting a lot of money on the horse and if they are they usually lose. Exercise riders and grooms that bet are wrong WAY more than they are right. I promise.
thank you sir ,,,you probable right
Your welcome.
I know you are still frustrated with those late line changes. Maybe try looking at Saratoga , Del Mar or Monmouth. The pools there will not be able to be manipulated to the extent that Finger Lakes did.
Best of luck.
https://www.ehorsex.com/
fixed odds betting .. available to US players. (withdrawal fees are quite high though)
Betfair.com .. for everyone else.
... anyone that can beat horses while playing track odds .. can do at least 30% better by using either of these two outs ... if you like to watch the odds on track ... also have windows open with these two options and watch these odds too ... it will give you a more realistic picture of what might happen "after the off" to the odds.
This...You realize by "board watching" you are consistently playing underlays?You are betting with the people that you are supposed to be playing against.Finding the horses who being overlooked is the way to go.You may not win as often but you will win more.
That's all irrelevant unless you're betting fixed odds.
With the standard procedure you don't know what horse will be overlooked. Maybe you bet on a horse that no one seems to be betting on, but a whale comes in with a big bet by post time.
I primarily bet long shots and can say this rarely happens.Whales bet lower odds horses because all they care about is being consistent so that the rebates pile up.Its too risky to put a boatload of money on a long shot.
This seems to happen to me every race...welcome to horse racing my friend
right, but it can happen. That's what I mean.
also play in the bigger fields
A lot of it is bots, software etc whatever term you would like to use dumping money into the pools on what the software considers fair value. There are even bots monitoring pools as small as Buffalo harness.
http://harnessracingupdate.com/archive.cfm
scroll down to April 1st 2012 and you can see the article about a big player and what happened at Buffalo harness
HOLD THE FUKN PHONE! How is it that you guttersnipes can even reply to the initial post? Are you serious.. you understood that giberish?
Hey fkn Nino you bloody yahoo... do you know the word "they" or is it the same as 'the' where you come from?
FK Man! Im no spelling Nazi but come on now... where do we draw the line? Im more amazed that guys understood it. In all honesty I thugth I had a clue on my third pass but for fuq sake do we have to decipher the sht out of so many posts when basic english skills will communicate just fine????
BTW, I hate that the odds change so quaintly as the race unfolds... hate it almost as much as I hate scratches.
** gibberish
** though
** English
:0)
mister cbiscuit,,,,f.u.c.k you ,,,you notice i know how to spell that,,,,,this is on internazional forum ,people from different country,,you asshole,,this is not a spelling bee forum you dickhead not every body when to yale or harvard like you do ,,you dont like my spelling ,,dont read move on and get a life,,,i am italian you jerck i know i misspell jerk ,,and you know what ,,i dont give a ****,,,,
Absolutely correct. If you watch enough races, you really start to get a feel for the tote board. I'm not saying this I don't get burned by my horse going off lower than I thought, but it doesn't happen a lot.
It's not impossible to determine which horses will be overlooked, or to put it another way, it's easy to see which will not be. Some examples: a horse with a low morning line, a horse ranked high in the DRF or Brisnet rankings, a horse with a top trainer or jockey. If you think your going to get value on these types of horses, you're going to be burned at the gate a lot.
Now I wouldn't confuse this with the inverse, which is seeing a horse at 50-1 while your fair odds are 5-2 and thinking you're a genius. In that case your probably ARE missing something that everyone else sees and you probably need to take a longer look. In the middle is the type of overlooked horse I'm talking about. A classic case is a race with three real contenders where two are alternating taking the lowest odds and the third sits in the 4 or 5-1 range. If the odds are shifting on the first two horses, you know the money's coming in. If your horse is stagnant, you can be pretty sure no huge whale is gonna come out of the blue and push it down to 1-1.
why can't there be one guy with big money who's waiting until post time to place a big wager on a horse that money had not been coming in on?
I think one of the posters above answered it best. Whales don't make money taking huge risks on 5-1 horses (which even if he thinks is a 2-1 fair odds horse still carries an unacceptable risk of ruin), they nail prohibitive favorites.
For example: http://www.startribune.com/blogs/163404376.html
Note the explanation for the win bet instead of a show, the guy was probably doing it for the rebate as much as the winnings. The balls it must take to make a $200,000 win bet on a horse like that, I can't imagine anyone doing the same for a marginal contender.
Yeap they are still counting bet slips after the bell rings.
the problem is ,to many medication ( drug ) been giveng to the horse that the public dont know ,,,i would like str to elaborat a little more about this ,,,he been a trainer before ,,,what you think about that ??
Who is str? Yea a lot of these horse are on roids.
str ,,is the poster ,who answer any question you have on horse racing
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