Just finished writing this and wanted to get this out on forum ASAP. Might be a bit rough so take it for what it is. Good luck with your selections. The field has been announced. Over thenext 2 days I'll break down the field to a few contenders and hopefully 1winner. Sometimes, the best horse wins the Kentucky Derby. But more often thannot, the horse with the biggest Beyer numbers, most attention from the publicwaltzes into Churchill Downs and beaten because of his pedigree, preparation orthe bad luck that comes with being favored. There are several trends that Ihave taken note over the years that have held their own where I can confidentlyeliminate pretenders. So with that said, let’s get to it. Here is the field.

No
Horse
1 Daddy Long Legs
2 Optimizer
3 Take Charge Indy
4 Union Rags
5 Dullahan
6 Bodemeister
7 Rousing Sermon
8 Creative Cause
9 Trinniberg
10 Daddy Nose Best
11 Alpha
12 Prospective
13 Went the Day Well
14 Hansen
15 Gemologist
16 El Padrino
17 Done Talking
18 Sabercat
19 I'll Have Another
20 Liaison
AE My Adonis

The 1st set of criteria is to eliminate any horsewhose last prep race was not 1 1/8th mile or more. The 1 ¼ mile distance is alot to ask for a horse stretching out for the 1st time. No derby winner has overcome it dating backthe last 20 years. Throw out Trinniberg whose last race was at 7Fand has never raced any further. Nochance.
2nd step and one of the most important is to throwout any horse that didn't finish 4th or better in its final prep race.Preferably 3rd or better. A horse who comes in to the race in bad form doesn'tfind it. Past history proves it. Dating back to 1962 no horse has finishedworse than 4th in its final prep race and has worn the roses. We can safely eliminate #2 Optimizer (9th Arkansas Derby), #12 Prospective (6th Bluegrass Stakes), #20 Liason (6th SA Derby),and My Adonis from the AE (7thWood Memorial).
2011 Animal Kingdom Spiral 1st 2010 Super Saver Arkansas Derby 2nd
2009 Mine That Bird Sunland Derby 4th
2008 Big Brown Florida Derby 1st
2007 Street Sense Blue Grass 2nd
2006 Barbaro Florida Derby 1st
2005 Giacomo Santa Anita D 4th
2004 Smarty Jones Arkansas Derby 1st
2003 Funny Cide Wood Mememorial 2nd
2002 War Emblem Illinois Derby 1st
2001 Monarchos Wood Memorial 2nd
2000 Fus. Pegasus Wood Memorial 1st
1999 Charismatic Lexington 1st
1998 Real Quiet Santa Anita D 2nd
1997 Silver Charm Santa Anita D 2nd
1996 Grindstone Arkansas Derby 2nd
1995 Thunder Gulch Blue Grass 4th
1994 Go for Gin Wood Memorial 2nd
1993 Sea Hero Blue Grass 4th
1992 Lil E. Tee Arkansas Derby 2nd
1991 Strike the Gold Blue Grass 1st
1990 Unbridled Blue Grass 3rd
1989 Sunday Silence Santa Anita Derby 1st
1988 Winning Colors Santa Anita Derby 1st
1987 Alysheba Blue Grass 3rd
1986 Ferdinand Santa Anita Derby 3rd
1985 Spend a Buck Garden State 1st
1984 Swale Lexington 2nd
1983 Sunny's Halo Arkansas Derby 1st
1982 Gato Del Sol Blue Grass 2nd
1981 Pleasant Colony Wood Memorial 1st
1980 Genuine Risk Wood Memorial 3rd
1979 Spectacular Bid Blue Grass 1st
1978 Affirmed Hollywood Derby 1st
1977 Seattle Slew Wood Memorial 1st
1976 Bold Forbes Wood Memorial 1st
1975 Foolish Pleasure Wood Memorial 1st
1974 Cannonade CD Allowance 1st
1973 Secretariat Wood Memorial 3rd
1972 Riva Ridge Blue Grass 1st
1971 Canonero II Venezuela 3rd
1970 Dust Commander Blue Grass 1st
1969 Majestic Prince CD Allowance 1st
1968 Forward Pass Blue Grass 1st
1967 Proud Clarion Blue Grass 2nd
1966 Kauai King Gov. Gold Cup 1st
1965 Lucky Debonair Blue Grass 1st
1964 Northern Dancer Blue Grass 1st
1963 Chateaugay Blue Grass 1st
1962 Decidedly Blue Grass 2nd
No
Horse
1 Daddy Long Legs
3 Take Charge Indy
4 Union Rags
5 Dullahan
6 Bodemeister
7 Rousing Sermon
8 Creative Cause
10 Daddy Nose Best
11 Alpha
13 Went the Day Well
14 Hansen
15 Gemologist
16 El Padrino
17 Done Talking
18 Sabercat
19 I'll Have Another

Next set of criteria is to throw out any horse whodidn't win a race at the age of 2. Late bloomers rarely win the derby becausethey lose out on the maturing process. We can eliminate #6 Bodemeister,#13 Went the Day Well. Bodemesiter, the morning line favorite, will try to become the first Derbywinner in the last 130 years that was unraced at age two. No thanks.
The next set of criteria specifies that in either ofhis or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse must have beenfirst or second with a furlong to go. This very important because 47 of thelast 49 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second with a furlong remaining inthe Derby, the two exceptions being Grindstone in 1996 and Giacomo in 2005.Grindstone won the Kentucky Derby after being fourth with a furlong to go.Giacomo won the roses after being sixth at the eighth pole. Eliminate #7 Rousing Sermon, #17 DoneTalking, #18 Sabercat.
Contenders:

No
Horse
1 Daddy Long Legs
3 Take Charge Indy
4 Union Rags
5 Dullahan
8 Creative Cause
10 Daddy Nose Best
11 Alpha
14 Hansen
15 Gemologist
16 El Padrino
19 I'll Have Another

From here points will be added to the list of 11contenders.
Give a point to any horse that won a mile or longerrace as a 2 year old. (Daddy Long Legs,Union Rags, Dullahan, Creative Cause, Daddy Nose Best, Hansen, Gemologist, ElPadrino)
Next is to give a point to any horse which ran oneof its best 2 Beyer speed figures in its last race. This is a big knock if thehorse did not. A horse needs to be in top form to win the Kentucky Derby.(Daddy Long Legs, Take Charge Indy, Dullahan, Daddy Nose Best, Alpha,Gemologist, I’ll have Another
Give points to horses which raced against gradedstakes competition prior to April as a 3 year old. Reason: battle tested. (Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, Dullahan,Creative Cause, Daddy Nose Best, Alpha, Hansen, El Padrino, I’ll Have Another)
Give points to horses with a graded stakes win. Shows class. (Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, Dullahan, Creative Cause, Daddy NoseBest, Alpha, Hansen, Gemologist, El Padrino, I’ll have Another)
Next the horses finish position in both of his orher last two races before the Derby was no worse than his or her runningposition at the eighth pole. This shows a horse that does not like to be passedcoming down the stretch. (Daddy Long Legs, Union Rags, Dullahan, CreativeCause, Daddy Nose Best, Alpha, Gemologist, El Padrino, I’ll Have Another)
The majority of past derby winners have had 5 or 4points.
5 points – Dullahan, Daddy Nose Best
4 points – Union Rags, Creative Cause, Alpha,Gemologist, El Padrino, I’ll have Another, Take Charge Indy
No horse has added or removed blinkers the raceprior to the derby and come out victorious. Throw out Creative Cause. Only 5 winners of the Kentucky Derby in thelast 71 years have had a dosage index above 4. You can throw out Dullahanwith a DI of 4.2.
Now I want to rank my contenders from top to last baseon their 2nd best Beyer speed figure. We’re not looking for a horsethat has only run 1 competitive race. We want a horse with a good competitivefoundation that’s run 2 competitive races. The Kentucky
Derby is a very demanding race and rarely can a horse win it without at least 2strong efforts prior to the race.

El Padrino (98)
Gemologist (95)
I’ll Have Another (95)
Union Rags (95)
Take Charge Indy (95)
Daddy Nose Best (93)
Alpha (92)
Beyer numbers have a lot ofvariance. I like to consider any horsewithin 5 Beyer points of the leader. Sothrow out Alpha. Now we’re getting down to the nitty and gritty. I can see any of these 6 taking it. I don’t like the fact that El Padrinofinished 4th last race. Lastrace performance is really important. Only Giacomo, Sea Hero, and Mine That Bird have finished 4thcoming into the derby and have won. Allthe others have been 3rd or better. I’ll throw out I’ll have Another based on O’Neil not having any Derbysuccess, a jockey with no derby history, and a horse with not much racingexperience.
Were down to 4. Now I’m going to look at Beyer numbers fromthe last race.
Take Charge Indy (95)
Union Rags (93)
Daddy Nose Best (100)
Gemologist (98)
Throw out Union Rags. I’m not going to throw anyone of Gemologistif you like him, but he really wasn’t tested till the Wood where he won by anose. He is lightly raced and I think hewill have it tough today.
I will be making Dutch win bets on #3 Take Charge Indy, and #10 Daddy Nose Best. I like the latter a little bit better.