[MoneylineExpress]

The Belmont stakes is a grueling race for these 3 year olds who will be traveling the 1 1/2 mile distance for the 1st time in their young careers. Since the Belmont is a mile and a half you need to be sure your horse can make the distance. That is why the Dosage Index angle is stronger in the Belmont than in the Derby where it's mostly used. The DI is used to quantify a horse's ability, or inability, to negotiate the various distances at which horse races are run. It is calculated based on an analysis of the horse's pedigree. It's a stamina check. Dosage numbers show that a horse with a rating of 4.00 or higher is not suited to running long distances. The lower number in dosage mean that a horse is better suited to go long. As you might expect, the cutoff is dropped to 3.00 instead of 4.00 for the derby.


In Belmont Stakes wagering history there have only been five winners that had dosage numbers higher than 4.00. And only 5 in the last 25 years have had a DI higher than 3.00 This is bad news for Nehro.

Dating back to 1997

2010 Drosselmeyer 1.75
2009 Summer Bird 2.56
2008 Da Tara 2.43
2007 Rags to Riches 3.00
2006 Jazil 3.00
2005 Afleet Alex 2.11
2004 Birdstone 1.77
2003 Empire Maker 1.88
2002 Sarava 4.50
2001 Point Given 3.00
2000 Commendable 5.00
1999 Lemon Drop Kid 2.62
1998 Victory Gallop 3.00
1997 Touch Gold 1.82

Master of Hounds (1.07)
Stay Thirsty (2.25)
Ruler on Ice (2.56)
Santiva (1.67)
Brilliant Speed (1.72)
Nehro (4.33)
Monznon (3.40)
Prime Cut (1.44)
Animal Kingdom (1.67)
Mucho Macho Man (2.43)
Isn't He Pefect (2.06)
Shackelford (3.62)


Throw out the 3 in red. Will be back to cap the rest when i get my hands on the PP's.

[shopbar picks]

good stuff. thanx

[dugbug15]

what an interesting angle,i forgot about the dosage index. i have a small brooklyn cap/belmont stakes double alive with #4,santiva,and,#6,nehru.i don,t think animal kingdom is the winner,but,we soon shall see.

[BGboothA]

One more reason to like master of hounds

[Arsenal]

One more reason to like master of hounds

Agreed. Already thought he had a real good chance and planned on betting him. Might add a little more now.

[stefan084]

very informative thank you

[Gremlin Lad]

Here is a link thru belmont stakes .com for PP


http://www.belmontstakes.com/racing/...formances.aspx

[vegasreaper]

Guess he forgot to come back and break it down more.

Here is a link thru belmont stakes .com for PP



http://www.belmontstakes.com/racing/...formances.aspx

[gembo12]

We'll see. He's nailed the last two.

[MoneylineExpress]

I'm throwing out Ruler on Ice. Horses adding blinkers leading up to a Triple Crown race haven't faired well. Usually a sign of a trainer searching for answers.

Master of Hounds (1.07)
Stay Thirsty (2.25)
Santiva (1.67)
Brilliant Speed (1.72)
Prime Cut (1.44)
Animal Kingdom (1.67)
Mucho Macho Man (2.43)
Isn't He Pefect (2.06)

[MoneylineExpress]

I like a horse who has finished at least 3rd 1 1/8 mile race or longer. Good bye Stay Thirsty, Santiva, and Isn't He Perfect.

Master of Hounds (1.07)
Brilliant Speed (1.72)
Prime Cut (1.44)
Animal Kingdom (1.67)
Mucho Macho Man (2.43)

[MoneylineExpress]

I like a horse that doesn't like to be passed down the stretch. Eliminate Prime Cut.

Master of Hounds (1.07)
Brilliant Speed (1.72)
Animal Kingdom (1.67)
Mucho Macho Man (2.43)

[shade3599]

good analysis. thanks for the info.

[MoneylineExpress]

It gets toughter to eliminate the last 4. I feel comfortable throwing Mucho Macho Man out. The trainer and the fact the horse has run in both Triple Crown races makes me want to stay away. In fact only Afleet Alex has won the Belmont after running in the previous 2 Triple Crown races in the last 9 years. It's taxing it can be done but its tough. Animal Kingdom might be up to the task but at that price its tough to like.

So my contenders so far are:

Animal Kingdom
Master of Hounds
Brilliant Speed

The Belmont is usually won by stalkers and looking and Brilliant Speeds running line he is a dead closer. He's always far back coming down the stretch. I'll have to het him beat me. I also can't knock anybody for liking Nehro. He's has everything I like in a Belmont winner except his DI. His Beyer numbers have gotten progressively better his last 4 races. He sits close to the pace and doesn't like to be passed.

I'll be using Master of Hounds and sprinkling in Animal Kingdom and Nehro around him. One of these 3 should take this race. Be back in the next hour with official plays.

I'll be playing Master of Hounds as my key and mixing him around Animal Kingdom and Nehro

[Lets_Get_Money]

Just had a 5 minute monsoon pass through queens but thanks for the info gonna wait right up till post to make up my mind

[vegasreaper]

Thanks for breakdown always appreciate your takes

[MadTiger]

Thanks for breakdown always appreciate your takes

This. Points on recharge.

[vegasreaper]

????? What is that

[MoneylineExpress]

Going with this. Going to try and beat Gio Ponti and Animal Kingdom. I think AK is a tired horse. Looking at his last running line he was slower in his last 1/8th mile in the Preakness than in the Derby. Tired horse? If not he is the likely winner.

Double (Big)
Race 10: 5,7
Race 11: 1,6

Double (Small)
Race 10: 5,6,7,9
Race 11: 1,6

[hawkwind]

Nice capping ME.. May the $$$ be yours.....

[sdtrader]

I am going with Nehro

[hockey216]

what effect will mud have? longshots have better shot?