[exstatman]

Anyone have the picks of some of the guys who claim to have won? I know last year, two of the guys, "Col Joe Chapman" and "Derby Bill Watson" claimed to have "nailed" the Derby, but in fact, had the winner, Super Saver as no better than their 5th choice in the race. Since Animal Kingdom was 20-1, it seems likely neither of these guys had this horse on top, but both are claiming to have won again. If one were to take a 6-7 horse box in every race, they would "win" alot, but lose money long run.

[joeyp1222]

anyone have the picks of some of the guys who claim to have won? I know last year, two of the guys, "col joe chapman" and "derby bill watson" claimed to have "nailed" the derby, but in fact, had the winner, super saver as no better than their 5th choice in the race. Since animal kingdom was 20-1, it seems likely neither of these guys had this horse on top, but both are claiming to have won again. If one were to take a 6-7 horse box in every race, they would "win" alot, but lose money long run.

the wizard had the winner this year

[joeyp1222]

The wizs picks for Derby on me enjoy

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) Super Hi-5

PGM # Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer

16 ANIMAL KINGDOM 30-1 ALBARADO R MOTION H

Animal Kingdom joins Visionaire as the second horse that owner Team Valor International has started in the Kentucky Derby.
Visionaire finished 12th in 2008.
Team Valor has had tremendous success, both in the US and aboard with their acquisitions. They are the most successful stable
of partnership owned racehorses. At the helm calling all the shots is Barry Irwin. He has established Team Valor as one of the
most accomplished racing stables among all types of owners. Irwin knows where to get horses and where to run them. He selects
all of Team Valor's racing stock without the need for consultants.
Animal Kingdom is just one of their many success stories. He has shown steady improvement in all four starts. As a result of
his outstanding distance pedigree, Team Valor wasted no time entering him at two turns in his first career start at Arlington last
September. In an off the grass race, Animal Kingdom sustained a strong closing rally from dead last to be a clear second despite
having traffic problems. It is interesting to note that Animal Kingdom did not race on lasix that day.
He wasted no time breaking his maiden thirty five days later at Keeneland at 1 1/8 miles receiving lasix for the fist time. Animal
Kingdom showed much more early speed. He stalked the pace in second position, took the lead at the top of the stretch, and
drew away from eleven rivals with a 3 ¼ length victory.
Animal Kingdom was given the winter off. He resurfaced on March 3 at Gulfstream Park with a trainer change from Wayne
Catalano to Graham Motion. Entered on grass for the first time, Animal Kingdom broke from a tough outside post. He broke
awkwardly, but quickly recovered to race in perfect striking position. He continued to have dead aim on the leader through the
stretch, but fell short by a neck. It was an excellent return to the races. Animal kingdom was running a mile, which is too short a
distance for him to be at his best, but a great starting point to his three year old campaign. Needing Graded stakes earnings to
have any chance of starting in the Kentucky Derby, Animal Kingdom was entered in the Grade 3 Spiral at Turfway Park twenty
three days later. A change of tactics was employed. Similar to his debut, he was allowed to drop back to last place in a field of
eleven. Animal Kingdom made a strong middle move into the fastest part of the pace. New rider Alan Garcia then angled him
wide into the stretch to take the lead turning for home, winning by 2 ¾ lengths.
The million dollar question that Team Valor and Motion had to answer was if Animal Kingdom would be able to transfer his steadily
improving form to dirt. You had to go back to the spring of 2010, several months before making his first career start, when Animal
Kingdom breezed on the dirt at Adena Springs training track near Ocala Florida. This was where he was broken and trained by
Randy Bradshaw, one of the very best in the game at developing yearlings. Once Animal Kingdom made his first start, until one
week ago, he had not raced or worked on the dirt. A start in the Kentucky Derby or the American Turf one day earlier would be
decided right after Animal Kingdom worked six furlongs on dirt at Churchill in company with stable mate Meistersinger, who had
run a huge race in very fast time breaking his maiden at Gulfstream first time out. He had proven to be a very good work horse,
which was a good test for Animal Kingdom who he spotted his mate three lengths at the start. Both colts raced as a team to the
top of the stretch. Robby Albarado who was aboard Animal Kingdom, tapped his right flank a couple of times, and he quickly
distanced himself from Meistersinger by eight lengths at the wire. His six furlong time of 1:13 breezing was just what the doctor
ordered. He galloped out 1:26 2/5 for seven furlongs and then finished up his work at a mile, running his last 1/8th of a mile in: 24
flat. This workout was far better than the disappointing one he had a week earlier which was also in company. Robby Albarado
who was aboard for the work, had only ridden Animal Kingdom once before in his maiden score. Albarado told Barry Irwin that
he was very impressed by the way he handled the track. Now that Animal Kingdom passed a big test, the question is if you can
equate an impressive workout in the morning to a strong performance against nineteen rivals in the Derby.
Animal Kingdom has an outstanding distance pedigree. Even though his father Leroidesanimaux was an Eclipse Award champion
on the grass, he has sired Always A Princess and Gabby?s Golden Gal, who were both multiple stakes winners on the dirt over
a distance of ground. Leroidesanimaux family includes names like Candy Stripes, Invasor, who won the 2006 Breeders Cup
Classic, and Candy Ride, all who excelled on dirt at the highest level. Going back several generations on Animal Kingdom?s
mother?s side, there is an abundance of stakes winners on grass who could run all day. But buried deep into her pedigree was
one horse, who was a champion on dirt. His name was High Gun, winner of the 1954 Belmont stakes.

Page 11 of 16

I feel this is the weakest field that I can recall ever assembled for the Kentucky Derby, with so many short priced horses losing
key Derby preps. A wild card like Animal Kingdom, who you know will relish the 1 ¼ mile distance, and could end up the last
man standing, must be considered a major player and a danger to win the Kentucky Derby. I have so much respect for Barry
Irwin and Graham Motion, that if they both have decided to run, it is a huge vote of confidence. Like many others in the field, it
is a guess how he will handle a wet track if confronted with it.

8 DIALED IN 4-1 LEPAROUX J ZITO N

Trainer Nick Zito attempts to win his third Kentucky Derby with Dialed In, who I expect to be the post time favorite. Zito scored
with Strike The Gold in 1991 and Go For Gin in 1994. He could have matched trainer Bob Bafferts record of three Derby winners
last year with Ice Box, who finished with a flourish to run second. Dialed In has all the credentials to give Zito a Derby triple, and
the first one for his longtime owner Robert LaPentata. This dynamic duo have won several graded stakes, highlighted by Da?
Tara?s victory at 38-1 in the 2008 Belmont Stakes. In his wake was the undefeated Big Brown, who was attempting to become
the twelve Triple Crown winner, and the first since Affirmed in 1978.
The field for this year?s Kentucky Derby is made up of a smorgasbord of horses that have done their best running over synthetic
surfaces and on the grass. Sprinkled in are several horses such as Dialed In, who have done all their racing on conventional
dirt, which could prove to be a big edge.
Dialed In has won three times in four career outings. His lone defeat was a strong second place finish March 6 at Gulfstream.
Zito had decided to enter Dialed In against older rivals at 1 1/8 miles in his first start around two turns. This race would serve as
a springboard to his main objective four weeks later in the Florida Derby. His plan worked to perfection. Dialed In was beaten
a half length to Equestrio, who was also trained by Zito.
In the Florida Derby, Dialed In was sent off the second choice behind Soldat. Both colts had the benefit of making their third
straight start at 1 1/8 miles. Soldat, who was coming off two front running victories, never got the lead, finishing a well beaten
fifth. Dialed In took up his customary spot at the back of the pack. Jockey Julian Leparoux, who has ridden him in all 5 starts,
stepped on the gas on the far turn. Dialed In responded with a strong wide rally moving up to third place turning for home. In
deep stretch, he hooked the 68-1 pacesetter Shackleford. Nearing the wire, Dialed In edged clear to win by a hard fought head.
There are two ways to evaluate Dialed Ins performance. The first is that he won the Florida Derby on the square. Shackleford
had run the race of his life. Dialed In had proven in his first two starts that he has the heart to hook you late and prevail. I give
him a pass when suffering his first defeat against his elders. If not hurt by a slow pace and a bit more distance, Dialed In would
have won. He would have entered the starting gate for Kentucky Derby undefeated.
On the other hand, what concerns me about Dialed In is that he got the perfect set up to run his race in the Florida Derby. The
pace was fast enough to flatter his late running style. For a brief moment in deep stretch, I thought Dialed In was going to blow on
by Shackleford, but instead he had to work very hard to prevail. The final 1/8th of a mile was run in a very slow 13 4/5 seconds.
When I put all the pieces of this puzzle together, I am concerned that in the Derby, Dialed In will be unable to sustain his closing
rally from far off the pace stretching out in distance. He is not an agile horse, but more like a grinder, who prefers rallying outside
of horses. Dialed In must receive a perfectly timed ride from Leparoux and a trouble free trip. If Dialed Ins momentum is stopped
at any point in the race, it will be a very difficult task for him to recover and win. Dialed In gets an infusion of stamina from his
father Mineshaft who won nine races over a distance of ground. Four of those victories came in prestigious Grade 1 races. Dialed
In?s mother Miss Doolittle won twice, both races sprinting. His close relatives, Eliza and Dinard, were both multiple graded stakes
winners who could handle a distance of ground
Recent history has shown that you no longer have to have a longwinded pedigree to win the Kentucky Derby. Funny Cide is the
perfect example. Zito has done a masterful job preparing Dialed In to be in peak form in the Derby. He wisely kept him in Florida,
far away from the awful weather in Kentucky that has disrupted workouts of several Derby starters that have had to train over a
sea of slop. Not the case for Dialed In, who has not missed a beat in his morning gallops and workouts under sunny skies and
warm weather at Zitos home base at Palm Meadows.
Dialed In is expected to be the post time favorite in the Kentucky Derby. I am confident that he will bring his A game to the
proceedings, but everything must fall into place perfectly for him to win. In a year in which there have been upsets galore in many
Derby prep races, it could end up being a smart move to take a shot against him with a horse under the radar that will go off
much bigger odds than what he should be, especially if the track comes up wet. Dialed In has never raced over the slop, but
the same can be said about many of the other participants. Nevertheless, I respect Dialed In and his connections so much, that
he will not be left off any of my tickets.

Page 12 of 16

19 NEHRO 6-1 NAKATANI C ASMUSSEN S

Trainer Steve Asmussen has had nine starters in the Kentucky Derby throughout his illustrious career. The closest he came
was in 2007, when Curlin ran third despite a very tough trip in his fourth career start. Curlin had won his first three races by a
combined margin of twenty eight lengths. He broke his maiden at Gulfstream and then demolished the field at Oaklawn in both
the Grade 3 Rebel and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby prior to being sent off at 5-1 in the Run for the Roses.
This February, Asmussen had a Derby candidate in Tapizar, who is sidelined as a result of an injury he suffered in the Grade 2
Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita. At the time, a little known colt named Nehro had raced once, and the result was a fourth place
finish in his debut on December 12 at the Fair Grounds. He returned thirty days later, where he would make his three year old
debut at Oaklawn. You needed a telescope to find him, finishing tenth, beaten twenty two lengths. It would have been no surprise
if Nehro?s connections decided to drop him into a claimer in his next start. They opted instead to give him one more try at the
same level. In a dramatic turn of events February 21 at Oaklawn, Nehro rallied from far off the pace, with an explosive wide
sweeping move to the lead on the far turn. He continued to extend his margin in the stretch, on his way to a 4 ½ length victory.
Even after Nehro?s impressive win, there was not a whisper that there could be a potential Derby candidate in Arkansas.
This all changed thirty three days later, when Asmussen entered Nehro in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. A recent maiden winner
being thrown to the wolves into stakes company against more accomplished rivals, is rarely done. There is very little chance of
success. Nehro proved everyone wrong, when he ran second, beaten a neck to Pants On Fire at odds of 36-1, despite having
some trouble on the turn and racing in tight quarters in the stretch. Despite the purse of the Louisiana Derby being $1 million
dollars, the money his owners received for his second place finish, fell short of what Nehro needed to earn a start in the Kentucky
Derby.
He would stay at Oaklawn to run in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Nehro proved he was for real, with a strong closing run in the
middle of the track. What impressed me most was his versatility. Nehro had showed he could run well closing from far off the
pace or stalking the front runners. Jockey Corey Nakatani, was aboard Nehro for the first time in the Arkansas Derby. He allowed
him to drop back towards the rear of the pack, and into a nice comfortable stride. Nehro raced along the inside, and with a subtle
but impressive turn of foot, Nakatani asked him for run on the far turn and into striking position. He made up five lengths cutting
the corner before tipping out at the top of the lane. Nakatani took a light hold of him to give Nehro a breather, before steering him
even wider for the stretch run. The winner Archarcharch had gotten the jump on Nehro, who was slowly cutting into his margin
with every stride. Unfortunately, Archarcharch had just enough to hold him off in the shadow of the wire. If you observed the
head on after the finish, you will notice that Nakatani continued to urge him on. Nehro galloping out well clear of the field before
being eased up. This suggested that he had plenty left in the tank. With enough earnings now to run in the Kentucky Derby,
Nehro will be asked to travel an additional 1/8th of a mile. When many of the other horses are gasping for air in mid stretch, he
should have no problem sustaining his run to the wire.
For many years, a strong distance pedigree was emphasized in pin pointing the legitimate Kentucky Derby contenders. Leon
Rasmussen was the authority on calculating dosage and a horse?s pedigree going back several generations, to determine if
the breeding was there to stay the Derby distance successfully. There was not a student of the game who would not read
Rasmussen?s column leading up to the Derby. The results in recent years, have shown that pedigree is not nearly as important
as performance on the race track and how Derby bound horses are training over the quirky Churchill Downs course. Look how
popular Daily Racing Forms columnist Mike Welsh?s daily workout reports have become.
In the case of Nehro, I feel his pedigree is a welcome addition to the attributes he has shown on the racetrack. His sire Mineshaft
was a multiple Grade 1 winner over a distance of ground. He won at the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Woodward stakes,
both run at 1 ¼ miles. Mineshaft has had several stakes winners who improved the further they traveled. Nehros mother The
Administrator, produced Saint Marden, winner of all four races in route events, as well as the classy Sweet Lips, who won 5 of
6 races going long, with earnings of $565,000, several in stakes races. The Administrator herself is a half to Zalipour, who won
six of seven races, over a distance of ground against quality opposition.
In a very unique year, in which many of the Kentucky Derby prep races have produced results that are very uninspiring, there are
many more throw outs then legitimate contenders. Nehro has shown me enough in a variety of ways to consider him a worthy
recipient of winning the first leg of the Triple Crown. He is peaking at the right time for a trainer and jockey, who have proven time
and again that there is not a coveted prize they cannot win with the right horse at the right time. Ahmed Zayat owner of Nehro,
also had the very talented 3 year old Pioneer of the Nile, who ran second in the 2009 Kentucky Derby. I have great respect for
him and his family. Mr. Zayat has contributed a lot to the game and it would be only fitting if he were to win the Kentucky Derby.
I have two concerns about Nehro. He made his debut in mid December, and will be making his fifth start in less than four months,
which is a lot of racing in a short period of time. There is an expression that you cannot squeeze the lemon dry. I am hoping there
is enough juice left for another strong effort. Then there is the question whether or not he will handle the possibility of a wet track
on Saturday. Nehro did not handle it all that well earlier in the week.

Page 13 of 16

1 ARCHARCHARCH 10-1 COURT J FIRES W

The path from Arkansas to Kentucky is paved with success in the run up to the first Saturday in May. Going back to 2004, a
runner from the Arkansas Derby has finished in the Derby superfecta every year except 2008 (when Eight Belles finished second
and was exiting the Fantasy at Oaklawn). This son of Arch was purchased for $60,000 at the Keeneland September sale in 2009.
It took him a while to get to the races. In his debut over this Churchill Downs oval, he finished a game second, and immediately
stamped himself a horse with a bright future. His trainer, William Jinks Fires, was willing to try him in a stakes race. He was
rewarded with a victory in the Sugar Bowl at the Fair Grounds.
From there, Fires settled Archarcharch in at his home base of Oaklawn Park and pointed him towards the big 3 Derby preps
in Hot Springs plus an appetizer in the Smarty Jones. After a distant fourth place finish in the Smarty Jones, everyone wrote
off this colt for the first time. In fact, the reason for his poor finish in the Smarty Jones was that he was aggressively ridden by
Jon Court, and tired on a track that played very kindly to off the pace types (There was only one wire to wire winner in 9 races).
He was dismissed at 14-1 in the Southwest, but rebounded in a big way. Archarcharch rated comfortably off a solid pace, took
over approaching the top of the stretch and held well late. From there, he was back in the Derby conversation, and as a result
was bet down to 7-1 against The Factor in the Rebel. Another pace stalking trip was his undoing, mainly because this was a
pace set by the exceptionally fast Bob Baffert trainee, The Factor. This colt attempted to rally into a 1:10 and 4/5 pace on a track
that was playing kind to speed, which is a recipe for disaster. However, this modest effort resulted in the public writing him off
as a Kentucky Derby prospect.
How did Archarcharch reply to being let go at 25-1 in the Arkansas Derby when two colts who had a collective 0 wins around two
turns both went off at less than 10-1 He posted the best effort in a prep race by any horse during the lead up to the Kentucky
Derby. His victory came via a very patient ride by Court as he sat well back of a very hot pace that completely melted down late.
Archarcharch was very game once he reached the front. Hard charging Nehro narrowed the gap to a neck at the wire. He has
developed into a true router who can make his own luck. One of the things that I like most about Archarcharch, is that he reacted
positively in a race where the pace was very hot, allowing his rider to settle him towards the back of the field. The pace is going
to be hot again in the Derby, and we have all seen a snapshot of how this colt will handle it.
Just about six months ago a colt by Arch was victorious in a major race at Churchill Downs going 10 furlongs. That, of course,
was Blame, winner of last year?s Breeders? Cup Classic. His victory plus numerous strong performances by other progeny of
Arch, lead you to believe that 10 furlongs will be no issue for this colt. His dam was a graded stakes placed sprinter and her best
prior foal to race, was the stakes placed sprinter Run Sully Run, who was trained by Cam Gambolati. Archarcharch?s second
dam, Pattern Step, was by Nureyev who was a multiple graded stakes winner, having taken the Hollywood Oaks on dirt and
the Providencia on turf. Archarcharch has two three quarter siblings who were victorious going long in Europe, including 1000
Guineas runner up Arch Swing. When you dig a bit deeper into his pedigree, it becomes clear that distance is not an issue. Of
course his on track performances further dispel any concerns about him negotiating the demanding Derby distance.
In a year where the Derby prep races have been entirely underwhelming, Archarcharch was victorious in the Arkansas Derby,
which I felt was the strongest of them all. A number of good horses went through the Oaklawn Derby preps this spring, and this
guy left Arkansas as the top dog. The fact that he has handled the Churchill Downs oval in the past is an added plus. The fact
that his jockey clearly has developed an understanding of how Archarcharch needs to be ridden in order to have optimal success
is a huge plus. He has continued to develop, and will be one of a select few who can peak on May 7. I consider him among the
main contenders in this field and I am expecting a strong effort at generous odds.
My concern is how Archarcharch will handle the possibility of a wet surface on Saturday. He has raced over it once at Oaklawn,
resulting in a 13 length defeat. I am willing to excuse his performance, because he dueled for the lead from the start rather than
take back and make 1run, which is clearly his preferred running style.

15 MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE 10-1 ESPINOZA V BAFFERT B

Right off the bat, lets make one thing clear. If trainer Bob Baffert enters a horse in the Kentucky Derby, he cannot be eliminated.
Baffert will be attempting to win his fourth Derby. He scored with Silver charm in 1997 at 3-1. Baffert came right back the following
year winning with Real Quiet at 8-1. Three years later, War Emblem wired the field at 20-1.
Baffert never considered Midnight Interlude a Derby prospect. His Derby hopeful was always The Factor. All bets were off
when Midnight Interlude upset the field in the Santa Anita Derby at 13-1 on April 9. One week later, The Factor finished a very
disappointing seventh as the odds on choice in the Arkansas Derby.
It is rare to see a recent maiden winner stepping up into a prestigious Grade 1 Stake like the Santa Anita Derby and win. The
results of several Kentucky Derby prep races this spring were head scratchers, with several winning at huge prices.

Midnight Interlude never started as a two year old. He made his debut at

[aggieshawn]

To late with the whiz picks.

[Brewers in 7]

Betonline kept texting me and emailing me that their derby horse was Animal Kingdom. so whoever their handicapper is hit it.