[Easy-Rider 66]

THX a lot STR for the detailed take. I will have to do some searches on your thread as I know you talked about this with Pimlico. Interesting read.

[JBEX]

hey str

laurel R5

#10 sparkle sprinkle (8-1)

thought you might find this horse interesting..I know you know the trainer .. he's having a fantastic meet along with excellent long term trainer stats (always consider roi with this)

looks like the bad efforts 2 and 4 back may have been due to fast paces and last race steadied and eased at the half..get you a bigger price if he's ok..off a 40 day layoff solid 5f work along with a slow breeze at the same distance 8 days later..

top jockey

outside posts excellent sprints

first lasix

has to be up for sale because of the condition but it's for quite a bit of money

[str]

hey str

laurel R5

#10 sparkle sprinkle (8-1)

thought you might find this horse interesting..I know you know the trainer .. he's having a fantastic meet along with excellent long term trainer stats (always consider roi with this)

looks like the bad efforts 2 and 4 back may have been due to fast paces and last race steadied and eased at the half..get you a bigger price if he's ok..off a 40 day layoff solid 5f work along with a slow breeze at the same distance 8 days later..

top jockey

outside posts excellent sprints

first lasix

has to be up for sale because of the condition but it's for quite a bit of money

I'm sure the horse is fine. Just was outrun and the rider eased up late. Trainer is a real good guy, darn good horseman as well. Good at horse shoes and got to watch him on the golf course. Lol. Just kidding. Played in a bunch of tourneys against him back in the day.

Bet he wishes that outside horse drew inside of him though. That one might be a pain in the butt down the backside. Hope not. Horse sure fits. I have no problem with this one .

GL JBEX !

[JBEX]

I'm sure the horse is fine. Just was outrun and the rider eased up late. Trainer is a real good guy, darn good horseman as well. Good at horse shoes and got to watch him on the golf course. Lol. Just kidding. Played in a bunch of tourneys against him back in the day.

Bet he wishes that outside horse drew inside of him though. That one might be a pain in the butt down the backside. Hope not. Horse sure fits. I have no problem with this one .

GL JBEX !

just saw he was a trainer scratch and it says 6 hours ago ..my guess is equibase updates the time and if that's the case he was out around 9am ..could've sworn I saw him in the entries but I am careless more than every once in a while lol..seems like a good guy and am pretty sure I've asked you about him at least once before. probably offer some value next out off his last 2 races..appreciate as always str

[JBEX]

hey str


picked a 90-1 who looked real promising approaching the top of the stretch and then just weakened badly..he made the kind of move that gave the impression (at least to me) that he might cruise home..could you detect anything wrong with him just by watching ..guess I'm looking for something else besides he was just winded..making his 3rd start with first lasix if that makes a difference

parx R5 #5 flaco explosivo

[str]

hey str


picked a 90-1 who looked real promising approaching the top of the stretch and then just weakened badly..he made the kind of move that gave the impression (at least to me) that he might cruise home..could you detect anything wrong with him just by watching ..guess I'm looking for something else besides he was just winded..making his 3rd start with first lasix if that makes a difference

parx R5 #5 flaco explosivo

What happened here is the classic case of the horse not sharing usage of it's lead legs. The analogy of a fighter punching with only one arm is the best way to describe it. Those shoulder and leg muscles just ran out of oxygen as they typically will after about 30 seconds of full running which he was doing.

The horse actually broke ( I'm pretty sure but would need a head on to be positive and could not find one), on his right lead, which IS correct. Because he broke a bit sluggish, the rider got after him pretty much leaving the gate. The horse responded well and ran hard down the backside and actually made up ground in 22:2/5ths as well as 46: 4/5ths . He seemed to switch, but again I need a head on to be sure just past the 1/2 mile pole. ( You can see he drops in a bit and takes off and when you switch leads to the left the horse naturally moves closer to the rail by about 3-4 feet).

That is when he really started to accelerate towards the leaders. He was full of run around the turn as you saw but never switched leads when he turned for home. Damn shame. It certainly cost him being MUCH closer or probably winning. Simply put, like a one armed boxer, he just got exhausted on that leg.

I can see why you had to have been all fired up turning for home. It looked like he was going to win by 5. But he was soooo tired late he could not keep up with very pedestrian like late fractions.
Will he improve off this? Absolutely. But now the whole world knows. so there goes your price. If he does not learn to switch, once bet down, he will be much easier to catch as he will never finish well off that left lead from the 1/2 mile pole home. He will always need to be much the best to win.

What a shame but GREAT job digging that 90-1 out. Really great job! Had he switched leads, we will never know but he would have run much much better and probably won. Take the win for digging him out. You should feel very confident off that effort.

But because he did not switch, he got exhausted and allowed the eventual winner, Scaramouch, to do the Fandango. Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Great pick JBEX.

Make that AWESOME pick !

All the best.

[JBEX]

What happened here is the classic case of the horse not sharing usage of it's lead legs. The analogy of a fighter punching with only one arm is the best way to describe it. Those shoulder and leg muscles just ran out of oxygen as they typically will after about 30 seconds of full running which he was doing.

The horse actually broke ( I'm pretty sure but would need a head on to be positive and could not find one), on his right lead, which IS correct. Because he broke a bit sluggish, the rider got after him pretty much leaving the gate. The horse responded well and ran hard down the backside and actually made up ground in 22:2/5ths as well as 46: 4/5ths . He seemed to switch, but again I need a head on to be sure just past the 1/2 mile pole. ( You can see he drops in a bit and takes off and when you switch leads to the left the horse naturally moves closer to the rail by about 3-4 feet).

That is when he really started to accelerate towards the leaders. He was full of run around the turn as you saw but never switched leads when he turned for home. Damn shame. It certainly cost him being MUCH closer or probably winning. Simply put, like a one armed boxer, he just got exhausted on that leg.

I can see why you had to have been all fired up turning for home. It looked like he was going to win by 5. But he was soooo tired late he could not keep up with very pedestrian like late fractions.
Will he improve off this? Absolutely. But now the whole world knows. so there goes your price. If he does not learn to switch, once bet down, he will be much easier to catch as he will never finish well off that left lead from the 1/2 mile pole home. He will always need to be much the best to win.

What a shame but GREAT job digging that 90-1 out. Really great job! Had he switched leads, we will never know but he would have run much much better and probably won. Take the win for digging him out. You should feel very confident off that effort.

But because he did not switch, he got exhausted and allowed the eventual winner, Scaramouch, to do the Fandango. Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Great pick JBEX.

Make that AWESOME pick !

All the best.

would've felt better if I had mentioned switching leads in the question..sometimes I see it and other times not so sure..5-1 ,10-1 deal with it but at those odds it stings a bit

good to know that if he did at the top of stretch, with the way he passed horses on the turn ,might have had a shot to win or at least come in the money


queen reference lol..very good !!



thanks str

[JBEX]

hey str

another race gets me angry lol

msw turf 2 turns

Graham Motion has a firster with great pedigree specs(cost, dam as a runner, dam production, sire win early turf and in general) all there.. Jose Ortiz rides.. numbers for gm with debuters and debuters on turf over a huge sample are horrendous off at 7-1( 12-1 ml) won comfortably


Clement also has a homebred firster with a pedigree right down the middle and probably for him below avg..Tyler riding.. imo, factoring roi, he is the best trainer first out on turf and that includes chad brown... off at 5-1 (5-1 ml) out of the money by a lot with no apparent excuses


just trying to take something away from this and realize it's always a bit of a guessing game.. if Graham Motion has a horse capable of winning first out it will have to be with the horse being prepped like he would any other horse.. he doesn't go for it overall but every now and then he will get one that's good enough to do it with his type of preparation



think that's fair?


realize we've touched on this subject before

[str]

hey str

another race gets me angry lol

msw turf 2 turns

Graham Motion has a firster with great pedigree specs(cost, dam as a runner, dam production, sire win early turf and in general) all there.. Jose Ortiz rides.. numbers for gm with debuters and debuters on turf over a huge sample are horrendous off at 7-1( 12-1 ml) won comfortably


Clement also has a homebred firster with a pedigree right down the middle and probably for him below avg..Tyler riding.. imo, factoring roi, he is the best trainer first out on turf and that includes chad brown... off at 5-1 (5-1 ml) out of the money by a lot with no apparent excuses


just trying to take something away from this and realize it's always a bit of a guessing game.. if Graham Motion has a horse capable of winning first out it will have to be with the horse being prepped like he would any other horse.. he doesn't go for it overall but every now and then he will get one that's good enough to do it with his type of preparation



think that's fair?


realize we've touched on this subject before

I think you said it all perfectly. Sometimes, this will happen.

Stats say 7% (I think it said that).

I think you have to write it off to that. You were not wrong in your logic. In the long haul, you had it correct.

Maybe, just maybe, was Graham riding Ortiz a tell? I have no clue. Don't follow that .

Looking at the form, I saw a last minute workout on the turf for Grahams horse. That's not his style. Maybe he did not get into a MSW race on dirt he tried for and got lucky to draw into a turf MSW. So he got that work in last minute. It was the 30th I think. 3 days before the race. Not Grahams style.

Clements horse not running well is also not typical. So two low % things collide in the same race? Sounds like it to me.

Hope that helps.

[JBEX]

I think you said it all perfectly. Sometimes, this will happen.

Stats say 7% (I think it said that).

I think you have to write it off to that. You were not wrong in your logic. In the long haul, you had it correct.

Maybe, just maybe, was Graham riding Ortiz a tell? I have no clue. Don't follow that .

Looking at the form, I saw a last minute workout on the turf for Grahams horse. That's not his style. Maybe he did not get into a MSW race on dirt he tried for and got lucky to draw into a turf MSW. So he got that work in last minute. It was the 30th I think. 3 days before the race. Not Grahams style.

Clements horse not running well is also not typical. So two low % things collide in the same race? Sounds like it to me.

Hope that helps.

yeah long haul those stats are valuable but it is 7% not 0% lol..think overall you've got to hold firm against him in these situations but don't throw it out right away..maybe an expensive horse,pedigree stick out or both may be present..jose ortiz as you said could've been an indicator also


thanks str

[JBEX]

if you happen to look in time interesting castellano would jump on #6 lagerfeldt in gp R1 don't you think ?

[str]

if you happen to look in time interesting castellano would jump on #6 lagerfeldt in gp R1 don't you think ?

Sometimes you decide to go to a rider you have not used all that much and you try and get calls on maybe 5-6 horses in their spots. Maybe this is that. If some of the horses are very live an agent won't mind trying a horse like this if he had no other calls for the race just to work with the trainer. I can't see anything on the form that would make this one attractive especially off 7/8ths.
Has this combo been getting together much lately? Other than that, I'm clueless.
The outside horse jumps off the page with the box and 1st lasix. So does the 3 with 1st lasix, blinkers on and that trainer is very solid 2nd time out.
That's what I saw looking quickly.

[JBEX]

Sometimes you decide to go to a rider you have not used all that much and you try and get calls on maybe 5-6 horses in their spots. Maybe this is that. If some of the horses are very live an agent won't mind trying a horse like this if he had no other calls for the race just to work with the trainer. I can't see anything on the form that would make this one attractive especially off 7/8ths.
Has this combo been getting together much lately? Other than that, I'm clueless.
The outside horse jumps off the page with the box and 1st lasix. So does the 3 with 1st lasix, blinkers on and that trainer is very solid 2nd time out.
That's what I saw looking quickly.

was dead on the board @ 25-1..figure he would've at least gone off ml if something was up..couldn't come up with the winner..wouldn't even consider with that trainer's numbers in maiden claimers


thanks str

[JBEX]

hey str

(understand you can't always get to these)

gulfstream

R11 holy bull stakes (G3)


#3 eloquist (20-1)

debut

sloppy track

2nd race

wide post

3rd race

wins 1st attempt going two turns ..to me off the 2 no efforts that's big

4th race

behind a ridiculously slow pace in the remsen

last race

first blinkers and off slow..not totally forgiving this race but they are pushing forward with him for this spot..looks like he'll have the blinkers again


think some reasonable excuses for the bad races ..what you think overall?

[str]

hey str

(understand you can't always get to these)

gulfstream

R11 holy bull stakes (G3)


#3 eloquist (20-1)

debut

sloppy track

2nd race

wide post

3rd race

wins 1st attempt going two turns ..to me off the 2 no efforts that's big

4th race

behind a ridiculously slow pace in the remsen

last race

first blinkers and off slow..not totally forgiving this race but they are pushing forward with him for this spot..looks like he'll have the blinkers again


think some reasonable excuses for the bad races ..what you think overall?

Sorry I missed this one but lets review anyway.

I saw he ran poorly but that would not skew my judgement. Here are the comments I made to myself before I saw the chart.

Debut Sloppy- Sure

2nd race wide post - ok that could have been legit.

3rd race wins 1st attempt going two turns ..to me off the 2 no efforts that's big -

Typically yes but the flag I saw on that was the rail at Parx which can be a crazy biased spot in favor of the horse. Don't know if that was real or not but Parx and the rail can be a winning combo. I would have needed to check the results from that day .
I wasn't keen on him losing lengths around the turn in that win either. He came on to win but if he was in the bit and really the best does he lose that ground around the turn when the race starts to heat up? I'm not saying that is a negative but it is not a positive IMO especially with the knowledge now that the blinkers did not really seem to help which I will get to next.

4th race - Slow pace- Slow pace for sure but was he being really restrained by the rider or was he plodding along? I would need a replay to tell me that.

last race. First blinkers and off slow... That really bothers me. He had a gate work with blks. on 10 days before and comes out sluggish and is outrun? That is a huge turn off for me. If in his career he was ever going to be on the bit and wanting to run, assuming blks. on was a wake up that he needed, he would have broken much sharper and been ready to move up around the turn if he was in that same level of ability. Even if he gets tired, that's ok. It shows the blks. AND 1st lasix had him primed. But that did not happen. Without the benefit of the replay his race looks sluggish which 1st blks. on and lasix should be anything but.
That was the turn off for me before I saw the chart. Not that he couldn't have come out firing but I think that would have been a pleasant surprise to see.
Again, real easy after the race. But that was the impression I got in my head before the benefit of seeing the result.
Hope that makes sense.

[JBEX]

Sorry I missed this one but lets review anyway.

I saw he ran poorly but that would not skew my judgement. Here are the comments I made to myself before I saw the chart.

Debut Sloppy- Sure

2nd race wide post - ok that could have been legit.

3rd race wins 1st attempt going two turns ..to me off the 2 no efforts that's big -

Typically yes but the flag I saw on that was the rail at Parx which can be a crazy biased spot in favor of the horse. Don't know if that was real or not but Parx and the rail can be a winning combo. I would have needed to check the results from that day .
I wasn't keen on him losing lengths around the turn in that win either. He came on to win but if he was in the bit and really the best does he lose that ground around the turn when the race starts to heat up? I'm not saying that is a negative but it is not a positive IMO especially with the knowledge now that the blinkers did not really seem to help which I will get to next.

4th race - Slow pace- Slow pace for sure but was he being really restrained by the rider or was he plodding along? I would need a replay to tell me that.

last race. First blinkers and off slow... That really bothers me. He had a gate work with blks. on 10 days before and comes out sluggish and is outrun? That is a huge turn off for me. If in his career he was ever going to be on the bit and wanting to run, assuming blks. on was a wake up that he needed, he would have broken much sharper and been ready to move up around the turn if he was in that same level of ability. Even if he gets tired, that's ok. It shows the blks. AND 1st lasix had him primed. But that did not happen. Without the benefit of the replay his race looks sluggish which 1st blks. on and lasix should be anything but.
That was the turn off for me before I saw the chart. Not that he couldn't have come out firing but I think that would have been a pleasant surprise to see.
Again, real easy after the race. But that was the impression I got in my head before the benefit of seeing the result.
Hope that makes sense.

of course you pick apart things a lot more than I am able do and that's where a lot can be learned beyond the obvious

being suspicious about the win because of a possible rail bias and losing ground on the turn is interesting..I would just see the win,competitive figure and doing it as a 2yo

behind the really slow pace another auto excuse for me..so plodding along behind that pace makes it less of an excuse (if that was the case)..guess that's what you're saying ?

last race was great extra insight..being sluggish with the addition of lasix and blinkers not a good sign ..maybe of all of these that should have been within my grasp to consider on my own

maybe also considering he's a parx trainer and had only 1 other starter at the meet (him lol) he was going to take a shot regardless..down there already give it another go


went off at 123-1 and pulled up after 6f


thanks for the feedback str

[str]

of course you pick apart things a lot more than I am able do and that's where a lot can be learned beyond the obvious

being suspicious about the win because of a possible rail bias and losing ground on the turn is interesting..I would just see the win,competitive figure and doing it as a 2yo

behind the really slow pace another auto excuse for me..so plodding along behind that pace makes it less of an excuse (if that was the case)..guess that's what you're saying ?

last race was great extra insight..being sluggish with the addition of lasix and blinkers not a good sign ..maybe of all of these that should have been within my grasp to consider on my own

maybe also considering he's a parx trainer and had only 1 other starter at the meet (him lol) he was going to take a shot regardless..down there already give it another go


went off at 123-1 and pulled up after 6f


thanks for the feedback str

being suspicious about the win because of a possible rail bias and losing ground on the turn is interesting..I would just see the win,competitive figure and doing it as a 2yo

Just something I would verify if I liked the horse.



behind the really slow pace another auto excuse for me..so plodding along behind that pace makes it less of an excuse (if that was the case)..guess that's what you're saying ?



It's all about HOW he was plodding behind the leaders. Was the rider full of horse or was the rider having to ask and waiting for the horse to respond ?



last race was great extra insight..being sluggish with the addition of lasix and blinkers not a good sign ..maybe of all of these that should have been within my grasp to consider on my own



Something to try and incorporate JBEX. Really only takes a second if you have it on your checklist as you read the form. If you see it and feel good about it your done. Or be worried about it and look into it a bit more to get a better feel of what is going on if it looks weird, like this one did.
Blinkers on the 1st time should always have the horse focused and wanting to compete. A sluggish walk out of the gate and run early on would be quite concerning too me. Don't know if that was the case but it's the first thing I would look for as the horses trainer. Starting in the paddock, then warm ups and of course, the break and race. Not that you can know each horse that well. None of us can. But you can consider what you see in the first 24 seconds of the race as far as the horses will to compete is concerned.


maybe also considering he's a parx trainer and had only 1 other starter at the meet (him lol) he was going to take a shot regardless..down there already give it another go


Sounds like it was a two race plan all the way after you telling me that.

[JBEX]

being suspicious about the win because of a possible rail bias and losing ground on the turn is interesting..I would just see the win,competitive figure and doing it as a 2yo

Just something I would verify if I liked the horse.



behind the really slow pace another auto excuse for me..so plodding along behind that pace makes it less of an excuse (if that was the case)..guess that's what you're saying ?



It's all about HOW he was plodding behind the leaders. Was the rider full of horse or was the rider having to ask and waiting for the horse to respond ?



last race was great extra insight..being sluggish with the addition of lasix and blinkers not a good sign ..maybe of all of these that should have been within my grasp to consider on my own



Something to try and incorporate JBEX. Really only takes a second if you have it on your checklist as you read the form. If you see it and feel good about it your done. Or be worried about it and look into it a bit more to get a better feel of what is going on if it looks weird, like this one did.
Blinkers on the 1st time should always have the horse focused and wanting to compete. A sluggish walk out of the gate and run early on would be quite concerning too me. Don't know if that was the case but it's the first thing I would look for as the horses trainer. Starting in the paddock, then warm ups and of course, the break and race. Not that you can know each horse that well. None of us can. But you can consider what you see in the first 24 seconds of the race as far as the horses will to compete is concerned.


maybe also considering he's a parx trainer and had only 1 other starter at the meet (him lol) he was going to take a shot regardless..down there already give it another go


Sounds like it was a two race plan all the way after you telling me that.

I think the most useful and important thing I can take out of this is being weary when blinkers were added it's previous start and a horse still wasn't quick (or quicker) out of the gate


if it was a 2 race plan obviously trainer was hoping for a lot more from the initial start..still feel based on his good race at parx and some reasonable excuses that was an outrageous price..on the other hand the lack of improvement with the blinkers might have been a reason to not take a shot

only gotta hit those types every once in a great while to do ok

thanks str

[JBEX]

hey str

11/29 we discussed "commandperformance" as a possible future bet and derby contender (pg 153/5352)..future pool 3 will be going on this weekend and still very quiet regarding him.. he worked out for the first time today and 5 days ago at palm beach downs.. realize he's probably done considerable work leading up to those

assuming he's OK (haven't via Google seen anything to the contrary) maybe they're considering the fountain of youth (3/5) or tampa bay derby (3/12) as a launching point..realize he's still a maiden but looking at the indexes at gp and tampa didn't seem to be a msw route (only 1 at each track) that would work timing wise if he was going for either of those races...should mention tam 2nd leg goes on saturday and he's not entered


going to NY wouldn't make much sense as the gotham is 1 turn.. realize there's the oaklawn and fairgrounds path but I would think Todd would stay in florida at this point.. he's probably got another good horse or two lol that he's got to figure a path for also.. maybe leaving Florida isn't so farfetched after all.. I was impressed by what he did in the bc juvenile despite finishing 4th and Todd's comments afterwards were very positive.. what do you think about him starting off in an advanced leg of the triple crown preps at one of the major tracks ??

[Thunderground]

Str, I'm trying to learn a little more about herd hierarchy. You mentioned early on in the thread that horses run faster for some jockeys than others, which I found very intriguing. Do you know of racing examples, or perhaps training buddies, where horses respond differently to the presence of other horses? Can other horses bring out the best or deflate a horse?

[JBEX]

another thing worth considering are the other 3 he has listed as separate entries..objectively feel that mine and mo donegal are his top two..possibly this might make it more likely cp would stay in florida for his next start

[str]

hey str

11/29 we discussed "commandperformance" as a possible future bet and derby contender (pg 153/5352)..future pool 3 will be going on this weekend and still very quiet regarding him.. he worked out for the first time today and 5 days ago at palm beach downs.. realize he's probably done considerable work leading up to those

assuming he's OK (haven't via Google seen anything to the contrary) maybe they're considering the fountain of youth (3/5) or tampa bay derby (3/12) as a launching point..realize he's still a maiden but looking at the indexes at gp and tampa didn't seem to be a msw route (only 1 at each track) that would work timing wise if he was going for either of those races...should mention tam 2nd leg goes on saturday and he's not entered


going to NY wouldn't make much sense as the gotham is 1 turn.. realize there's the oaklawn and fairgrounds path but I would think Todd would stay in florida at this point.. he's probably got another good horse or two lol that he's got to figure a path for also.. maybe leaving Florida isn't so farfetched after all.. I was impressed by what he did in the bc juvenile despite finishing 4th and Todd's comments afterwards were very positive.. what do you think about him starting off in an advanced leg of the triple crown preps at one of the major tracks ??

Q. he worked out for the first time today and 5 days ago at palm beach downs.. realize he's probably done considerable work leading up to those



A. If this is all he has done on the work tab, he is a ways away from running. I assume that he was given time completely off??? after the BC race. Like maybe 4-6 weeks??? I'm doing the math backwards from his 3/8ths work. If this is correct, you can see that if he works every 7 days on average won't he need 2 more 1/2's at least 2 more 5/8th's 2 more 3/4's, then sharpen him up with a sharp 5/8ths and then run?
There has to be plenty of 2 mile gallops as well which is why I am using an average of 7 days between. That's 7 weeks!
Because I have no idea what he was doing in December and January all this is a guess. But, going on what little I know, it seems like a rush to try and be ready for 1 1/4 mile on May 2nd. If he gets one race in off the layoff, he wheels back in 3 weeks??
So , with limited info, it makes no sense too me.
If all of this is correct, which is a lot of guessing, it would make more sense that he will aim for the Preakness and skip the Derby??

Without more timeline info, I'm too confused with what little has been offered to make any kind of determination as to his plan. But the bottom line is, IF those are his only 2 works since November, he isn't ready to run anywhere anytime soon.

[str]

Q. he worked out for the first time today and 5 days ago at palm beach downs.. realize he's probably done considerable work leading up to those



A. If this is all he has done on the work tab, he is a ways away from running. I assume that he was given time completely off??? after the BC race. Like maybe 4-6 weeks??? I'm doing the math backwards from his 3/8ths work. If this is correct, you can see that if he works every 7 days on average won't he need 2 more 1/2's at least 2 more 5/8th's 2 more 3/4's, then sharpen him up with a sharp 5/8ths and then run?
There has to be plenty of 2 mile gallops as well which is why I am using an average of 7 days between. That's 7 weeks!
Because I have no idea what he was doing in December and January all this is a guess. But, going on what little I know, it seems like a rush to try and be ready for 1 1/4 mile on May 2nd. If he gets one race in off the layoff, he wheels back in 3 weeks??
So , with limited info, it makes no sense too me.
If all of this is correct, which is a lot of guessing, it would make more sense that he will aim for the Preakness and skip the Derby??

Without more timeline info, I'm too confused with what little has been offered to make any kind of determination as to his plan. But the bottom line is, IF those are his only 2 works since November, he isn't ready to run anywhere anytime soon.

Let me add that if he really is being pointed to the Derby, he has done much more than we know . We should see 5/8ths works very soon.
Because all he have to go on is the work tab, THOSE works say he isn't close at this point. Time will tell I guess.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: A question for you. In your opinion what separates the great race horse from the good one's? Is it the ability at times to run well with the right eye covered up? acceleration? etc. Might be a simple answer or a complex one. Not sure? THX in advance.

[JBEX]

Let me add that if he really is being pointed to the Derby, he has done much more than we know . We should see 5/8ths works very soon.
Because all he have to go on is the work tab, THOSE works say he isn't close at this point. Time will tell I guess.

get what you're saying and even if he is pointing to the races I mentioned his worktab is scant leading up to them..not to say he couldn't be but early indicators say no..lot's of speculation as you said but on the other hand this will make the price more attractive ..all part of future wagers


think I may have posted a link but steve haskin, a long time racing writer I believe, did a real detailed write-up about the trips he had in his 3 races,his dam and that they really thought he was going to be a super talented horse before he ever raced..you thought his breeders cup race wasn't bad considering he'd never been around two turns prior to that


have to monitor the odds and make a decision..appreciate the feedback str

[JBEX]

hey str

first off you can send me a bill lol

R7 #7 song of innocence (5-1)


like this horse from many angles..one of the things for me is something I'm not even sure has relevance..I like the last line ..even fade mid/back of the pack at 8 5f could be a useful primer to go the marathon distance ..you agree ??


any comments on mine or any other welcome..as always understand if you can't get to it

[JBEX]

hey str

first off you can send me a bill lol

R7 #7 song of innocence (5-1)


like this horse from many angles..one of the things for me is something I'm not even sure has relevance..I like the last line ..even fade mid/back of the pack at 8 5f could be a useful primer to go the marathon distance ..you agree ??


any comments on mine or any other welcome..as always understand if you can't get to it

gulfstream

[str]

hey str

first off you can send me a bill lol

R7 #7 song of innocence (5-1)


like this horse from many angles..one of the things for me is something I'm not even sure has relevance..I like the last line ..even fade mid/back of the pack at 8 5f could be a useful primer to go the marathon distance ..you agree ??


any comments on mine or any other welcome..as always understand if you can't get to it

Just saw it. Yeah, it could. Looks like he was all messed up early in the last race/first race back. He dropped back after being keyed up early, but he does not drop back late. He stays pretty even. About all that race was good for was to get it under his belt. Now a marathon. Sure, it's conceivable he got more out of the race than the form shows , and most players will see. So yes, hidden form there.
Ortiz answers all other questions about is he fit, and ok and all that stuff.
Probably worth a swing at a solid price if that exists with Ortiz. Lol.
I did not have time to look at the others and post this with any time left.

[JBEX]

Just saw it. Yeah, it could. Looks like he was all messed up early in the last race/first race back. He dropped back after being keyed up early, but he does not drop back late. He stays pretty even. About all that race was good for was to get it under his belt. Now a marathon. Sure, it's conceivable he got more out of the race than the form shows , and most players will see. So yes, hidden form there.
Ortiz answers all other questions about is he fit, and ok and all that stuff.
Probably worth a swing at a solid price if that exists with Ortiz. Lol.
I did not have time to look at the others and post this with any time left.

just found out it's off the turf and on the tapeta..better than the dirt I guess..anyway glad you feel the same about the horse


check out the winner of laurel R7 (look at the pp's)..sure you'll have something to say about that

[str]

Str, I'm trying to learn a little more about herd hierarchy. You mentioned early on in the thread that horses run faster for some jockeys than others, which I found very intriguing. Do you know of racing examples, or perhaps training buddies, where horses respond differently to the presence of other horses? Can other horses bring out the best or deflate a horse?

Q. Str, I'm trying to learn a little more about herd hierarchy. You mentioned early on in the thread that horses run faster for some jockeys than others, which I found very intriguing.

A. For the most part, these type of horses actually run Ok for many jockeys but run their best for a certain type of jockey. That certain type might be a rider that sits still more so than most, or has very light hands as compared to most, or in plenty of cases with my barn, they run much better for a female rider than for a male rider and usually for a certain(whoever that might be) female rider rather than say /ALL female riders.
Bottom line, they are quirky horses that certain types of riders or styles bring out the best in them. Usually not the best rider in the room, but a certain style of rider.

You will see this much more often with low to mid level claimers. I'm not talking stakes horses when I speak about this . Maybe now and then with better horses, but mostly cheaper horses . At least that was my experience with that .


Q. Do you know of racing examples, or perhaps training buddies, where horses respond differently to the presence of other horses? Can other horses bring out the best or deflate a horse?

A. We certainly are aware of the presence of a lot of pace, or lack of pace in any particular race, especially longer races. Certainly, that immensely helps or hurts a speed horses chances or a deep closer for sure. To a lesser degree but still somewhat a stalker or mid range closer. Pace almost ALWAYS makes or breaks a race. But I never was made aware from another trainer or realized myself, that the presence of an exact horse bettered or worsened my horses, or their horses chances other than the pace factor I spoke about.


The exception to that would be a non gelded horse, that was a bit more over sexed than most , if a filly or mare was in that race ( which would be rare but does happen).

Especially if they are next to one another in the gate. It won't bother the mare or filly but the colt/horse can get all worked up and have his mind on other things instead of racing. Just like some guys sometimes right? Lol. We all knew that guy growing up that was always drawn to the lady in the room and could not keep his mind on business for at least a few minutes.



As for the last part of the question, yes, superior horses can break a horses heart almost immediately upon the gates opening or shortly thereafter because that horse senses, and just knows, that they are waaaay outclassed. Think of the horses like people. They have personalities as well. Some are aggressive, some meek and mild, some ultra competitive, some somewhat competitive . Some are much smarter than others. Some are more shy than others.
Heck, I feed some deer in my backyard during the winter and I see it all the time in them. Bullies, shy ones, take no crap ones, etc. And not just bucks. I see momma deer that take no crap from anyone. They are leaders and the boss, not followers. And the followers know it.


I mean, if I see it in deer and I absolutely saw it in race horses, and we see it everyday in people, chances are it is everywhere. It is unquestionably in race horses. I saw it all the time.

You know how now and then we will see a stakes race where some horse is entered that always goes to the front in minor stakes and allowance races, maybe from a lesser track and usually stays on to win wire to wire. Then, they try running against a really good stakes horse or horses at for instance Saratoga in a Grade 1 , I mean really good horses that also shows speed. You might figure that those cheaper speed horses might show speed to the far turn going two turns and then fade but they never get closer than 7th early on and finish last? And the fractions early are not much different than what the cheaper horse is used to running.

We've seen plenty of examples of that before. Well, they , for the most part, as I don't want to say ALL as some might have had another legit excuse, realized probably before the gates opened or very shortly thereafter, that they were way over there head, and by a lot.

As a result, they became intimidated and gave up, and in plenty of cases before 15 seconds of the race, if that, was run. I mean, they certainly were not tired at that point. They were mentally taken out of the race.

When you see that type of no effort from an otherwise consistent horse that steps way up to try the big horses, more often than not, it's what I just explained.


Hope that helps answer your questions.

[Thunderground]

As for the last part of the question, yes, superior horses can break a horses heart almost immediately upon the gates opening or shortly thereafter because that horse senses, and just knows, that they are waaaay outclassed. Think of the horses like people. They have personalities as well. Some are aggressive, some meek and mild, some ultra competitive, some somewhat competitive . Some are much smarter than others. Some are more shy than others.
Heck, I feed some deer in my backyard during the winter and I see it all the time in them. Bullies, shy ones, take no crap ones, etc. And not just bucks. I see momma deer that take no crap from anyone. They are leaders and the boss, not followers. And the followers know it.


I mean, if I see it in deer and I absolutely saw it in race horses, and we see it everyday in people, chances are it is everywhere. It is unquestionably in race horses. I saw it all the time.

You know how now and then we will see a stakes race where some horse is entered that always goes to the front in minor stakes and allowance races, maybe from a lesser track and usually stays on to win wire to wire. Then, they try running against a really good stakes horse or horses at for instance Saratoga in a Grade 1 , I mean really good horses that also shows speed. You might figure that those cheaper speed horses might show speed to the far turn going two turns and then fade but they never get closer than 7th early on and finish last? And the fractions early are not much different than what the cheaper horse is used to running.

We've seen plenty of examples of that before. Well, they , for the most part, as I don't want to say ALL as some might have had another legit excuse, realized probably before the gates opened or very shortly thereafter, that they were way over there head, and by a lot.

As a result, they became intimidated and gave up, and in plenty of cases before 15 seconds of the race, if that, was run. I mean, they certainly were not tired at that point. They were mentally taken out of the race.

When you see that type of no effort from an otherwise consistent horse that steps way up to try the big horses, more often than not, it's what I just explained.


Hope that helps answer your questions.

Thanks str. Yes, that's the type of hierarchy I'm interested in. For handicapping (value) purposes I'm inclined to divide a herd into three groups. The top dogs. Everybody knows who they are (and in nature they may fight it out for the top spot). Then there is a group that is also strong, but not the strongest. They are the second tier and can be relied upon to step in when necessary. (very useful for exactas). And last there is a group of longshots that under normal conditions have no chance. However, -and this is only my hypothesis - there are exceptions where everything flips, such as 'danger' in natural settings, when the strongest horses look after the herd. Strangely, they will not give it their best (and leave behind the weak ones), while the weak ones recognize their part now is not to stay behind. I believe these conditions are very subtle, and explain the strange longshot days we see from time to time.

I'm trying to gather information to improve this understanding. At present I'm doing 'blind' testing through tote board exactas (A-B/C-D-E), based on nothing but certain odds distributions and measurements, to see if the behavior of the first two groups follows standard patterns.

Is herd hierarchy real? A top horse will not 'hang', when given a chance to win the race, but a second tier horse may think twice before passing a horse in the stretch. What makes them hang?

Anything that stands out in herd hierarchy or the interaction between horses is very valuable, because it can point at underlying principles. For instance, the jockey/horse chemistry you mentioned would always be there, at a subtle level, but would only become noticeable when extreme. It makes perfect sense that horses like intuitive riders better. Who really likes getting whipped? On a related note, does a horse actually know where the finish line is? Horses seem to know that they won, even in close races. Some look so happy after a win. I love it.

A Native American friend of mine had trained a horse to obey his thought instructions. He also had wolves, and one of my beautiful memories is rolling around in the snow with them. In any case, one day he invited me to ride his horse. I had never sat on a horse in my life. No saddle. No stirrups. Just a little rope. Then he told me to instruct the horse what to do. With my thoughts. The horse instantly and precisely obeyed each thought. At the time I thought it was interesting. It didn't change my life. But a seed was planted. Over time it changed my whole outlook on everything in mother nature. So I guess that was the start of this somewhat unusual approach to horse racing.

Thanks, as always, for all your insight.

[str]

Hey STR: A question for you. In your opinion what separates the great race horse from the good one's? Is it the ability at times to run well with the right eye covered up? acceleration? etc. Might be a simple answer or a complex one. Not sure? THX in advance.

I suppose that a great horse is one that has beaten all comers by in some instances overcoming things like what you eluded to like a real tough trip (right eye covered up on a speed type amongst other things), or maybe a horse that has dealt with all the different surfaces, traveled, or that sort of thing.

Years ago, I would have said acceleration in the middle or late stages of a race with a pace type horse but that would be pre 1989 as since then, the drugging, blood doping and all that crap that allows everyday horses to restart after tough fractions and or trips seems like an occurrence we see much to often. Because of that, I think people have varying opinions on "greatness". I know I sure do.

I think the epitome of greatness before 1989 was Secretariat and his incredible run in the Belmont. But.. the greatest move I ever saw was Secretariat in the Preakness 3 weeks earlier. I was thinking about how many races I actually have seen at Pimlico live. It's somewhere over 20,000 races. In all those races I never saw a horse go from last to first ( and well in hand by the way), around the clubhouse turn and continue on to win decisively. Except of course Secretariat. It's worth a watch EZ. Just google it. And watch the rider and his hands. It's breath taking.
THAT, was greatness. ( Off point for a minute, one of my greatest regrets was not touching him and petting him 2 days before the race when he was in his stall after dinner and I went up and talked to his groom Eddie Sweat. It was like 7:30 pm and at the time I was barely a groom and lived on that backside. He was 3 barns away and not much is going on that time of the evening on the backside so I walked up to see the horse and talked to Mr. Sweat. He asked me if I wanted to pet him and I said no. Honestly, I was scared to. I was still pretty green and he looked like no other horse I had ever been near. He was friggin HUGE compared to the horses I was around and intimidating when he looked at me. I chickened out. Damn it! I regret that to this day.)

And yet, as great as we all concede Secretariat was, there were races where he did not give tremendous performances. But is incredible feats and how he did them on his good days buried any thoughts of allowing those so so races tarnishing his greatness label.

Ruffian was GREAT. For me it was her look in her eye, which would have made the Rock step back and take notice, and of course, her speed from gate to wire. I guess what I was told when Vince Bracciale talked about her was also plenty of reason to think she was the best female ever.

And of course there are many more and lists all over the place of top 100 race horses .
But sadly, at least for me, the term greatness has faded somewhat because of what some trainers ( just some, certainly not all) do with drugs. When asked, I don't bash those horses, like Justify for instance, but I would never put him in a category with the horses like those I've mentioned. Or within earshot of them as there are many others to choose from.
It might be unfair to the horse but I just cannot do it.

I think it is a little difficult to fully explain EZ but for me, I feel as though I know it when I see it. How about you? What do you go on ?

[Easy-Rider 66]

[Easy-Rider 66]

THX for the take STR. I posted the Secretariat Preakness run. First time I have seen that race. thx for bringing it up. I guess I look for horses that can battle with the right eye covered up. and horses that like I mentioned can accelerate on a dime. But like you said the drug factor is an issue.

[Easy-Rider 66]